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[Oberyn Smashedface]

This is my first foray into Dwarf Mode on the 2014 version, so this may be a dumb question (couldn't find guidance on wiki or search), but how long should I be waiting for goblins to appear?  I understand the inter-civ relations work a bit differently in the new version. I'm on year 3 and have a Duchy with a population of ~135.  I've seen multiple cycles of each of the 3 trade caravans, and have had kobolds sneaking about, but no signs of goblin thieves, ambushes, or sieges. I'm 99% certain that I embarked near goblins, and the red line that I assume to indicate hostility was present. I'm not sure if there is a way to verify neighboring civs after embark, since I think they need to physically appear before they are listed in game.   

The good news is that elves have threatened me due to my ongoing arbor genocide, so I'll probably get to test my defense mechanisms after all.  But, is it possible for goblins to suddenly decide to attack this late into the game, after 3 years of silence?

[GhostDwemer]

Yes. Unless you embark right next to them, that's about as soon as you will see them now.

[Eldin00]

Sieges happen a lot less regularly than in older versions. I've had medium sized ones immediately after the third migrant wave, or gone 6 years then had a small one finally show up. And the size of the sieges can go up or down from one to the next, instead of the old constantly increasing sizes we used to see.

[Burts]

Yes. Unless you embark right next to them, that's about as soon as you will see them now.

No. This is wrong. People sometimes get large 60+ unit sieges even though they are quite far away. The main factor when it comes to goblins attacking you is that they need to have enough soldiers to attack you, and they must not be busy in other wars in worldgen. Especially if there is alot of civilizations in the world.

[TheFlame52]

No. This is wrong. People sometimes get large 60+ unit sieges even though they are quite far away. The main factor when it comes to goblins attacking you is that they need to have enough soldiers to attack you, and they must not be busy in other wars in worldgen. Especially if there is alot of civilizations in the world.

Ah, that would explain why the goblins didn't attack me until year three - they were too busy conquering the rest of my civilization.

[Oberyn Smashedface]

OK, this makes sense. Thanks.

Even though I'm bummed that they haven't appeared, I think I like the new system. It's dynamic and unpredictable.  Adventure mode and dwarf mode are gradually blending together. Good stuff.