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[Rastaan]

Because; what are the chances of an Elf merchant walking over a single, isolated, tile of ice...at the very moment the map thaws out?

[Funtimes]

Because; what are the chances of an Elf merchant walking over a single, isolated, tile of ice...at the very moment the map thaws out?

Embark height * embark width * 48²

[Scruga]

Because; what are the chances of an Elf merchant walking over a single, isolated, tile of ice...at the very moment the map thaws out?

Embark height * embark width * 48²

Unless the only access to the depot was carefully put over that piece of ice, it would be interruption of the player. (A God in the eyes of the dwarves perhaps)

[Funtimes]

True, it should read "at most 1 in..."

Because most traders aren't going to appear in your rivers or on your cliff tops.

[Emily]

Erm, your odds are the odds of one specific, preselected elf walking over one specific preselected tile, assuming they have equal odds of being on any surface tile of the map.

If your depot is near a muddy pool or river--ie a large portion of the tiles they're likely to walk on are ice--and there's more than one elf, the odds are actually a lot better.  Though still not extremely high.

And that's not taking into account player intervention.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Single isolated tile. What part of this don't you understand.

[Emily]

Single isolated tile. What part of this don't you understand.

Was it the only tile of ice on the map?

[Johnny Madhouse]

AUTISM

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