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[sneakey pete]

What are the odds of a crossbow goblin shooting through a fortification that's 20 tiles away and mortally wounding my marksdwarf?

It just happened.

Well, rather, as my champions sallied out, a stray bolt passed through the fortifications, and into my marksdwarf. And his heart. Was an interesting siege, actually. A stray bolt also managed to travel twice the shooting range and embed itself to a passing pump operator/next generation of champion's.

So, do those % chances for things to pass through actually count if the object wasn't aimed at something behind the fortifications (eg, stray bolts)

[Erom]

Not sure.

Was the goblin a champion? I just lost 5 marksdwarves through fortifications to a single champion goblin. really annoying, actually, since none of the other x-bow goblins could hit anything so I thought I was safe, then Climaxincest (not kidding, that's his name) steps up and ping-ping-ping-ping-ping 5 bolts, 5 dead dwarves.

[sneakey pete]

Nope, regulars (though they were aiming for my champions).

[Magua]

Can't give you exact chances, obviously, but from my experience, fortifications on the same z-level as the goblins are more or less worthless.

My first fort tried this -- fortifications on my side of the moat, with the marksdwarves behind -- and the goblin bowmen just butchered them mercilessly.

For best use, put the fortifications two z-levels up or so; there'll be a blind spot in front of them equal to the number of z-levels they are above the firing zone, so keep that in mind.

If you're stuck on a single z-level, you're probably best off ensuring the invaders have to go through a single-tile width corridor with a turn at the end, and stationing your dwarves so that they can fire at that turn, so only one goblin should be able to attack at a time.

[Kagus]

Another interesting tactic would be "notching" your wall.  Instead of making a flat surface, sink your fortifications one or two steps back.

This will significantly cut down on the range of fire related to that fortification.  But this is to your advantage since a dwarf can only fire at one target at a time, whereas any number of goblins can pack into that field and fire at the dwarf.

Plus it looks kinda cool.

[Tormy]

What are the odds of a crossbow goblin shooting through a fortification that's 20 tiles away and mortally wounding my marksdwarf?

It just happened.

Well, rather, as my champions sallied out, a stray bolt passed through the fortifications, and into my marksdwarf. And his heart. Was an interesting siege, actually. A stray bolt also managed to travel twice the shooting range and embed itself to a passing pump operator/next generation of champion's.

So, do those % chances for things to pass through actually count if the object wasn't aimed at something behind the fortifications (eg, stray bolts)

Depends..if only a few regular bowgoblins are shooting at 1 target who is behind a fortification, this rarely happens...not to mention that your dwarf was extremely unlucky since the arrow hit his heart.