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Author Topic: #'s on recent development page?  (Read 2534 times)

LASD

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Re: #'s on recent development page?
« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2008, 06:14:26 am »

But holidays = 0, because they will be moved to the end of the month.

That leaves only the unexpected things, which I think is a multiplier varying from 1 to 2. There also exists the "Things go smoothly"-multiplier which varies from 0.5 to 1. For simplicity's sake I won't include the rare "Catastrophe"- multiplier that, when applied, varies from 10 to infinity.

So after further calculations aided by Deon, I have come to a conclusion that the release is coming in 3 to 12 days (with rounding errors), with heavily weighed probability towards the 6th day and weighed probability towards the days after that.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 06:28:42 am by LASD »
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Vengeful Donut

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Re: #'s on recent development page?
« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2008, 06:27:40 am »

One of the items in the list might expand into multiple items upon being reached. Remember the countdown before the z level release?
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PTTG??

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Re: #'s on recent development page?
« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2008, 03:13:47 pm »

But holidays = 0, because they will be moved to the end of the month.

That leaves only the unexpected things, which I think is a multiplier varying from 1 to 2. There also exists the "Things go smoothly"-multiplier which varies from 0.5 to 1. For simplicity's sake I won't include the rare "Catastrophe"- multiplier that, when applied, varies from 10 to infinity.

So after further calculations aided by Deon, I have come to a conclusion that the release is coming in 3 to 12 days (with rounding errors), with heavily weighed probability towards the 6th day and weighed probability towards the days after that.

Looks like LASD's prediction is spookily accurate- It still looks dead on two days from now, or slightly after.

The only way he could be wrong is if it's tomorrow.
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Techhead

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Re: #'s on recent development page?
« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2008, 06:39:33 pm »

LASD can scientifically predict the future!
How about you?
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Boomer

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Re: #'s on recent development page?
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2008, 07:32:22 pm »

But holidays = 0, because they will be moved to the end of the month.

That leaves only the unexpected things, which I think is a multiplier varying from 1 to 2. There also exists the "Things go smoothly"-multiplier which varies from 0.5 to 1. For simplicity's sake I won't include the rare "Catastrophe"- multiplier that, when applied, varies from 10 to infinity.

So after further calculations aided by Deon, I have come to a conclusion that the release is coming in 3 to 12 days (with rounding errors), with heavily weighed probability towards the 6th day and weighed probability towards the days after that.

Perfect. Just when I am getting used to this one...
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