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[notquitethere]

Here's a fun mafia theory speculation:

The first person to make a claim will be believed if they're not on the chopping block, so mafia should fakeclaim a role preemptively.

Any arguments for/against this position?

[TolyK]

Very constrained by the possibility of counter-claim and later checking.

If the risk of being algorithmically found out is low, then by all means.

This doesn't apply in open setups, or for actions that could be confirmed in the future.

So, I guess, closed/byor/bastard setups, claiming one-time actions or events.

[Leafsnail]

It's classic WIFOM essentially. The longer you wait to make your claim as mafia the less likely you are to have it clash with multiple players/players you don't want to be fighting. But claiming early/unprompted lends more credence to your claim due to this risk, and also the fact that it just takes longer to manufacture a plausible claim than it does to just state a real one.