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[luisedgm]

I made my fortress in the middle of 8 necro towers and several nearby civs expecting to be sieged constantly for extra FUN
But so far every time something appears in the map corner to siege me they instantly retreat and the siege ends, this winter i had 3 sieges in a row, one undead, one human (that i am not at war with?!?) and another undead, my moat bridges were down, so there was a path to my fort, so i don't get why they left in all the 3 times.
Also the forgotten beast that popped up in the caves last year is gone... my dwarves feel lonely.

Strangely the caravans come and go properly, so it is not pathing. Maybe it has something to do with me blocking invaders in the d_init for the first year to make sure i could build a basic moat and walls before the sieges? They are allowed now, and i even increased the max number of invaders.

[Sver]

This thing happens every once in a while for some players, myself included. Doesn't seem related to blocking invaders in d_init.txt. Rather, I think it has something to do with how overworld armies are simulated, e.g. these 1 second "sieges" are just passing by.

[luisedgm]

Oh i see, travelling armies...
So there is a chance i will actually get a proper siege eventually or is my save doomed?

[janamdo]

Can you not provoke a enemy by doing a mission .. i am not sure about this because i am also a beginner with DF

[PatrikLundell]

Hello/Goodbye sieges started to happen around 0.40.X, but the cause is unknown (although Sver's theory is plausible).

Grabbing their attention by attacking them with a raids might work (although that might actually lead to your fortress' doom...). janamdo is correct on this one.

In 0.44.12 I had the issue that necro towers kept attacking every civ within range, more or less, leading them to be wiped out in a small number of years after embark, but the 0.47.X ones seem to be tougher, with experiments etc. bolstering their ranks.

[luisedgm]

So far i had no military, once i completed my fortifications and my death maze (several iron spikes liked to a lever+9 z-levels pitfall+drowning chamber+dodge pittraps+ballistas+ton of cagetraps) i figured i wouldn't need soldiers, so i don't have a squad to send and poke the enemy, but the next time i get an undesirable dwarf that is not very happy with my wonderful fortress i might send him away to knock on some necro tower door.

[PatrikLundell]

You do need militia, at least I do, despite relying on cage traps. The reason is that I get campers staying behind when the rest of the sieging forces flee, and I need to mop them up somehow.

[PatrikLundell]

Double posting, since this actually relates to the OP.

I've started playing 0.47.04, and have received a number of sieges, some which ended as soon as the game was unpaused ("proper" hello/goodbye sieges), one where most disappear immediately, while one ran for 10 tiles or so before fleeing, and one had a single undead disappear immediately, while two stealthed necros remained until discovered, after which they fled (as they usually do).

The new data here is that I was actually able to use DFHack to view the army controllers as soon as they started their trek (at the turn of the season), before they reached my fortress, and could see that the site_id in their data is that of my fortress, not some other target. Unfortunately, I've seen nothing to indicate why some leave immediately and some not. Undead units that left immediately have had the "coward" flag set, but so did the goblins that attacked immediately after.
As far as I can tell, the army controller site id is a reliable predictor of whether a siege will happen if the time data is current (old army controllers can hang around).