...and also my own dwarves' stupidity.
Apparently I pissed the kobolds off by killing about a dozen of their thieves (chaining war dogs next to the single entrance to my fortress). One day, one of the recruits in my newly minted armed forces decided he was thirsty, and headed towards the brook on the edge of the map. Suddenly, KOBOLD AMBUSH!
5-6 kobold archers pop out and make him a pincusion. I set my orders to "Only military go outside," and promptly lose three more recruits who were thirsty (wtf? I have plenty of beer). So I shut them all in my fort.
The kobolds are on the edge of the map, not moving, but if I allow my dwarves freedom to go outside, someone enevitably gets thirsty and tries to go to the brook, and gets pwned in the face. I also currently have a crippled, but alive, dwarf near there, so my dwarves will also inevitably try and save him, and get pwned in the face.
Any way I can stop my dwarves from being retards long enough for me to buy enough time to forge weapons for my recruits? It'll be difficult, because I don't have access to wood for charcoal, and I can't make coke without charcoal first...Or is this something I can sit out? Will the kobolds eventually leave? The dwarfwiki doesn't say anything about kobolds attacking fortresses with archers, and this is very frustrating.
(I may try and mine the ground out from under them, though. That might work!)