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[timotheos]

This isn't the current bug with stuck invisible caravans.
For some reason my dwarvan caravan hasn't arrived for the past 3 years. There was never a "Caravan has arrived" messaged. I don't have any forbidden invisible goods on the edge of my embark and the humans have arrived and left each of the last 3 years. My civ appears healthy with a queen and lots of baron(ess)'s.

Is there any reason the dwarves might just not bother coming for a few years?

[Bumber]

I've had caravans not arrive while I was under siege.

[PatrikLundell]

Caravans don't arrive while the fortress is under siege, so if there's a siege on when a caravan is due to arrive it won't come that year. It also seem dwarven caravans can fail to arrive for other reasons, which might be the mountainhome being under siege.

[timotheos]

I do get goblin sieges late summer which can take till early autumn to get rid of. Although I'm sure the caravan has turned up mid and late autumn before.
Must be the mountain home under siege. Do travelling goblin armies intercept caravans?

[PatrikLundell]

Caravans seem to arrive something like 7:th-17:th of the first month of their season. I think you'll miss out if you're under siege at the date they (slightly randomly) should arrive.

[Bumber]

Do traveling goblin armies intercept caravans?

No. Caravans don't exist in the world yet.