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[alway]

97% of internet traffic is spam, as it happens.

Porn spam? I do not know.

53.76% of statistics on the internet are false. Sorta of like that one. Most of it's streaming video through youtube and netflix. http://www.cnet.com/news/netflix-youtube-gobble-up-half-of-internet-traffic/

In other news, Glenn Beck apparently likes Bitcoin now, so I suppose that means it is well and truly dead.

[10ebbor10]

The FBI is selling it's Silk Road Raid loot.

One giant batch of almost 30 000 bitcoins, worth about 18 million USD

[Sergarr]

The FBI is selling it's Silk Road Raid loot.

One giant batch of almost 30 000 bitcoins, worth about 18 million USD

The age of Internet Vikings has come! Loot, then pillage every site you can find! Go forth, warriors of the search engine, be blessed by thy Google in your quest for loot and glory!

[BurnedToast]

In other news, Ghash.io hit 51% of the hashrate (I'm not sure if they are sustaining it though). They promise not to do anything bad, but they've double-spent coins before to rip off a gambling site (and when confronted with proof, claimed it was just a rogue developer who they since fired).

The truth is while they don't have much incentive to actually attack the network, or even double spend (double spending enough to be worthwhile would eventually be detected and crash the price), they could try "selfish" mining... i.e. ignoring all the blocks anyone else discovers. If they can hold 51% of the hashrate, their chain will always be longer (given enough time), which means they can collect 100% of the rewards. Since no-one else is getting rewards, soon everyone will rush to join them (or quit mining) solidifying their #1 position. This does not (directly) harm the network (only other miners), so in theory it won't crash the price too bad either - and as long as it does not crash below ~50% of it's value, they are still ahead.

Meanwhile one of the core bitcoin developers, Peter Todd, just cashed out half his stash in response, claiming the problem (centralized mining) likely won't be fixed until something disastrous happens causing the price to crater. An exact quote:

Do I still think Bitcoin will succeed in the long run? Yes, but I'm a lot less sure of it than I used to be. I'm also very skeptical that any of the above will be implemented without a clear failure of the system happening first - there's just too many people, miners, developers, merchants, etc. whose heads are in the sand, or even for that matter, actively making the problem worse. If that failure happens it's quite likely that the Bitcoin price will drop to essentially nothing - not a good way to start a few months of work fixing the problem when my expenses are denominated in Canadian dollars.

related link: http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/13/time-for-a-hard-bitcoin-fork/

So yeah, fun times (unless you're holding lots of bitcoin then it's terrifying times)

[10ebbor10]

Heh, I wonder why the FBI is selling.

[misko27]

They've dropped down to 45%, but it could well be a matter of time. If anything could honest-to-god kill it for good, it would be a group controlling 51%.

[BurnedToast]

They only dropped because they've been under DDoS attack for most of the day, something most bitcoiners seem to be supporting and cheering on. I wonder if any of them have enough self-awareness to realize hypocrisy involved in cheering on the digital equivalent of sending thugs to beat someone you disagree with into silence while claiming to support liberty, free markets, etc etc?

Really, though, I'm not even sure Ghash holding 51% even for an extended period would outright kill it at this point unless they use it to directly attack the network (which they won't, selfish mining is the worst I see them doing). The bitcoin community seems to be almost completely composed of two groups: The incredibly, almost religiously irrational true believers who honestly in their hearts think nothing can stop bitcoin, ever, period, and think 51% not a big problem, and the investors/holders (many of which likely bought in near the top and are still underwater) who have no choice, and have to pump as hard as they can to try and raise the price so they can sell at a profit instead of a loss.

[alway]

No, a sustained 51% pool would kill it. Not necessarily because of someone doing something bad. But rather, because these things depend on trust. If a pool stays at or above 51%, it's clear to everyone that a single random internet person in charge of that pool could effectively cause all their internet money to become worthless. And that said person would even have incentives to do so if they played their cards right.

The funny part is, they actually have incentives to join the largest mining pool due to the way rewards work. Because of the random nature of the process, you're never actually guaranteed to get stuff from mining. It's essentially a lottery. As a result, to get a consistent income, you would do what lottery players might: pool your 'tickets,' then share any rewards relative to ticket contribution. And because of the way difficult increases work, they're also incentivized to ensure they make an income before the difficulty increases. As a result, to maximize both profits and stability of profits, you need to join in with the largest pool. Which is why this risk will continue.

[BurnedToast]

No, a sustained 51% pool would kill it. Not necessarily because of someone doing something bad. But rather, because these things depend on trust. If a pool stays at or above 51%, it's clear to everyone that a single random internet person in charge of that pool could effectively cause all their internet money to become worthless. And that said person would even have incentives to do so if they played their cards right.

The funny part is, they actually have incentives to join the largest mining pool due to the way rewards work. Because of the random nature of the process, you're never actually guaranteed to get stuff from mining. It's essentially a lottery. As a result, to get a consistent income, you would do what lottery players might: pool your 'tickets,' then share any rewards relative to ticket contribution. And because of the way difficult increases work, they're also incentivized to ensure they make an income before the difficulty increases. As a result, to maximize both profits and stability of profits, you need to join in with the largest pool. Which is why this risk will continue.

You're absolutely right about the second part. It's rather amusing to me, actually - one of the big arguments is that miners won't hurt bitcoin because they are invested in it.. but they really aren't. Because almost all the cost of mining is front-loaded in the hardware, and because the hardware becomes obsolete incredibly quickly, they actually have no long-term investment in bitcoin and must focus completely on short-term profit.

For the first part, assuming rational actors you are correct - trust *is* important. But, as I said, I think the large majority of the bitcoin community at this point is not made of rational actors. It's "true believers" who think it can't fail no matter what, and bag holders desperately trying to pump so they can unload.

So I think it's probably business as usual. Assuming Ghash gets back up to 51% after whoever gets bored of DDoS them, I guess we will find out. Should be interesting, either way.

[Reelya]

Cthulhu Offerings:

As the equinox approaches we begin the ritual; four weeks and five days long it builds until Cthulhu awakens and one worshipper is rewarded greatly!

    The time draws near, the return of The Great Old One is upon us. Join us in our ritual.

    During the first and second weeks of the ritual, sacrificial amounts are placed in special, once a day blocks. These blocks are a reward to the worshipper for sacrifice made. During the third and fourth weeks of the ritual the rewards build, small at first, then larger as the worship increases with fervor. During the last five days, the 'Tharanak shagg,' or "promise of dreamland," the ritual reaches final pitch and the daily special blocks are highly increased. Finally Cthulhu will return after the xxx665th offering has paid tribute to the Great Old One and he will bestow a bounty deserving of Him upon one lucky worshiper. The ritual can be repeated after six months time, following the great halving.

[miauw62]

Every time this thread gets bumped I feel like a little kid on Christmas Eve.

[Mictlantecuhtli]

All economists are cultists of the old gods. It's how you get insane enough to believe your own theories.