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I bet if there's a third factor it's personality.  That's a pretty blind guess, though, since for me it's pretty much always the civilian with the highest social skills.  I've only seen a mayor replaced by a less skilled dwarf is when he was in the military on election day.

Someone should ask about elections in the podcast.

[Overspeculated]

Actually, the engravings must be sort of like campaign posters. Hmm.. my Mayors highest social skill is Intimidator, this coupled with the fact that the engraver doing all the engravings is his (only living) friend and that the captain of the guard is a "long term acquaintance" leads me to believe that he is a tyrant, forcefully staying in power and swaying public opinion by decorating the halls with his greatness.