Here are the findings I said I'd post when I necro'd up this thread.
The situation in my fort was that I was going to haul magma up 145 z-levels in order to fill 9 pits to 4/7.
How I created this route is that I went exploratory mining via a 4x4 single-wide square downward ramp spiral. If I hit a cavern I sealed with a construction then re-routed around the cavern, always intending to make a route that is of optimal length, which is rarely difficult.
Eventually I hit magma sea this way and can plan my magma lift track, which I describe at length in this Reddit thread (
http://www.reddit.com/r/dwarffortress/comments/1izu55/a_simple_way_to_collect_and_move_small_quantities/), for those interested.
My initial concern in previous "cursed" forts was that the ramp bug had caused a problem at a place where the route diverged, with one path going off to dead end, and another path continuing down.
This does not appear to be the problem, since in my current fort, I ended up with a pile of magma from a cart wipeout (the implication is that the cart was going up, if that's of value) in a place where there was no junction.
So this is happening in a vanilla loose spiral.
I have a save from before when I started to lift magma, and I ran this approximately three times and had cart wipeouts every time, pretty early on. In none of those attempts did I get more than 3 pits filled. I then segregated all pets into a pasture, and forbade every object (all rocks) below the magma forge level.
So pets should have not been able to go down there, I do not believe there were any kids yet, and there should have been no reason for a non- cart-pusher to go down there unless he wanted a drink of magma or something.
I ended up running 20 loads of magma up without a disaster.
I haven't proven that collisions with dwarfs or pets cause this problem, but I believe that the evidence points to this.