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[JonBrant]

I'm fairly sure I read that this was intentional. Hard coded like the first migrant wave iirc

[Bobnova]

I've had it go both ways, very early sieges and no sieges at all.
More often none than early.
Similarely the "two" hardcoded migrant waves are.... not. I've gotten none once I think. I know I've gotten single waves a few times, no second wave till midway through the second year.

I like it a lot better than the hardcoded two migrant waves and no enemy action.

Causes more Fun.

I also, as a note, have been making it a habit to get under cover through a 1 tile opening ASAP, so I can build a single wall tile and be sealed in.
Paranoia has its place.

[Putnam]

Sieges in general are no longer hardcoded, but rather actually travel across the world map to get to your fort. They probably just happened to show up.

[Iamblichos]

I've noticed that the migrant waves only show up the first year if you start at the beginning of spring.  Otherwise you get them the following year.  Depending on how late you start, you might not get a winter caravan either in the first year, so plan accordingly.