This one is vexing me- two dopps with six alive can easily leave to four people alive- a situation that doesn't work in my favor. Going to rant here- skip to the end for the action.
Worst case is me using bot and the kill, hitting one townie and one dopp, while the dopps blow my shield. That'd leave four alive, one dopp, me, and two townies. The dopps would want me dead AND know who I
am. Of course, lynching one scum that day would leave to the other winning (presumably- bomb could change that) so the best course of action for the town would be to no-lynch and hope the scum cross killed... and they'd know who I was at that point. I would have to claim via PM to everyone after the day ended, and claim my bomb- dopp would be in a no-win situation at that point, because I'd certainly shoot someone. Dopp could either kill me and let town win, or no-kill and go into no-win D4 thanks to my bomb (or be killed in the night by me- no difference.)
Other four-man situation is me, two dopps, and a poor sucker townie. Three ways to get here- a cross-kill, them blowing my shield, and no cross kill but no bot. Under the former and latter, I'd still be shielded, so I'd be sitting pretty as long as I didn't get lynched (especially if I had my bot). But what of the lynch? The dopps would want the exty to hang, but they may not know who it was. A dopp would be unlynchable, so the best case would be a forced no-lynch. It's hard to tell what would happen in that case with several rookies in the playing field. For the middle case... I'd probably be screwed. They could force a no lynch themselves and NK me- bomb wouldn't be enough to save me.
There's also E-T-T-T, where I bot and NK both dopps, and they blow my shield. A no lynch is the smart move... but totally wrong thanks to my bomb.
Five man would require either me holding my bot with a cross-kill (A) or them blowing shield (B). Either way could break down as E-D-D-T-T (1) or E-D-T-T-T (2). In any 1 situation, town would need to lynch a dopp- my lynch would be a town loss. In 2, it's just a slightly non-standard LYLO (and a dopp lynch would mean I win thanks to bomb). Only difference between A2 and B2 is on a town lynch (and PWV protection). If a townie is lynched in B2, I'm in trouble. A1 I could just about claim publicly, because all I would need to do is see a dopp die. B1 would need to be a dopp lynch and hope I don't catch another kill... and would be a good place for a second shield. Of course, A2 is pretty much impossible without a guardian or another CE sci with a body double. Or a block- I think Mr. D claimed Warden*
Really, any blown shield situation is trouble for me.
Three man (no blown shield, no cross kill, bot used) is pretty much a win regardless. In E-D-D the only dopp winning play is to NOT lynch me and hope that I kill the one that dies to my bomb... except I'd still have my shield, leading to a 2-man win for me thanks to bombing. In E-D-T and E-T-T I win in any case.
Agh. I'm going to guess that the most likely dopp kill target is me, so what gives me the best odds in that case? Honestly, I'm not sure. I think botting is the best bet here- fortune favors the bold.
*That pretty much guarentees his survival from me, in case he's town. He's actually a good bet for my shield.
So who TO kill? Only claims so far are Warden from Mr. D** and Telepath from Hapah, who is almost certainly town. If I bot and NK two of the other three, that should give me a good crack at killing a dopp. But who and which order?
Dariush
Tiruin
blackmagechill
BMC is probably a dopp. Dariush, I believe, is the better kill target than Tiruin. UI garnered suspicion early, and that may carry on. That decided, which order? Honestly, I think it's pretty much irrelevant, but Dariush has a slightly higher chance of getting NKed (~5%) than BMC (~0.1%), so it could possibily conserve my bot.
Yeah, that's best.
**Really, I have no idea on Mr. D. I had really lost my suspicion of him, except he started sounding fairly coached. Forgetting to action N1 would be the height of derp, though. Also, SOMEBODY blocked Book N1. Also, Tiruin's claim of being blocked. Hurgh... no idea. No idea what to do on that one... makes me think Mr. D is lying. Agh, he's probably a dopp. I'll just use that to get him lynched tomorrow. Maybe.
Replicate a Deadman Bomb. Exterminate Blackmagechill. Assassin bot Dariush.Hapah, Tiruin, Mr. D... see you in the morning. Probably.
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Topic: Paranormal Mafia 21 - Game Over! (Read 67218 times)