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[Strongpoint]

Note that the Russian economy will seriously benefit from the oil price spike that will undoubtedly happen unless we see Israel shooting down everything without retaliation and Iran declaring victory.

This is why I am very unsure that this particular black swan is good for Ukraine.

[Random_Dragon]

I'm too averse to the toxicity in the Israel/Palestine thread to have that end up on my notifications feed so I'm posting my thoughts here instead, fuck it.

[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.

EDIT: Meant to put that in a quote block not a spoiler

[MaxTheFox]

I'm too averse to the toxicity in the Israel/Palestine thread to have that end up on my notifications feed so I'm posting my thoughts here instead, fuck it.

[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.

EDIT: Meant to put that in a quote block not a spoiler

That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.

[Random_Dragon]

Oh. RIP I guess.

[hector13]

Hopefully it’s just posturing by Iran and they launched expecting most or all of the drones to be intercepted, and Israel does similar posturing in response.

Extremists are in charge on both sides though, so that’s unlikely.

Edit: Iranian special forces did seize an Israeli linked vessel at the Strait of Hormuz not that long ago too.

[Starver]

That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.

...hmm, not sure how I feel about being the last poster in it. (I mean, someone has to be, of course...)


Ok, Ukrainean news (well, newsish, it was announced a day or two ago), just to stop this one being about Israel too... The UK might be looking to roll out Dragonfire. I mean, it'd definitely be a field-test situation... (Also wouldn't be the first time that a 'wonderweapon', or indeed 'wondershield', is a bit overhyped but I also can't see any hard and fast reason why it isn't as claimed.)

[Telgin]

I'd be happy to see the weapon deployed in Ukraine for several reasons, but my expectation is that it's probably pretty short ranged because of atmospheric effects on the beam.  Unless they'd be giving a lot of prototypes to Ukraine, I don't know how much difference it'll make.

Edit: supposedly it's designed to also be useful against mortar rounds, so it might have more value than I realize if it can currently target and destroy artillery rounds in mid flight.  Deploying a lot of them to Ukraine would make a very big difference if they have them and the systems are actually effective against such targets.

[EuchreJack]

It's hard to say what a new weapon might do until it's used.

[EuchreJack]

Oh look, now Republicans want to join in bipartisan talks to aid Israel, and might get roped into aiding Ukraine. Many thanks, Iran.

[Strongpoint]

Israel, I don't ask for much - Destroy Shahed-producing factories and ammunition depots and call it a draw.
And don't, I repeat, don't blow up the Iranian oil industry.


_______________

Note that considering the "brilliant" results of the Iranian attack, we now know what will happen should Russia ever attack NATO. Nearly all of their primitive\outdated shit will be shot down. ICBMs is the only open question.

In the next few days we will also probably learn what a modern airforce can do with Russian\Iranian level of air defense

[Cathar]

ICBMs is the only open question.

We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.

Part of me wants Israel to make a big pile of ashes with Iranian oil sector. Not only because putting americans in front of their open hypocrisy would be hysterical, not only because it would expedite the process of making them hold their word for once, but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.

[Flying Dice]

ICBMs is the only open question.

We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point it is important that we stop being cowards, Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.

Part of me wants Israel to make a big pile of ashes with Iranian oil sector. Not only because putting americans in front of their open hypocrisy would be hysterical, not only because it would expedite the process of making them hold their word for once, but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.

Not to mention that ICBMs require this thing called maintenance. You can't just leave them sitting in their silos for 40 years. Anyone who seriously thinks that the Soviets and their Russian Empire Federation successors were doing this consistently (and that the people responsible weren't selling everything from the warheads to the wiring on the black market) is a fool. And you can't tow an ICBM into a warehouse to slap on a half-assed modernization kit to pretend it's new production like you can with a T-72.

I am also inching closer to the "MacArthur was thinking too narrowly" camp.

[Strongpoint]

but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.

Russia won't be importing oil any time soon. Sure, they may need to import fuel but it will be fuel made from their oil.

Short term they would benefit from the Iranian oil industry going boom. Long term... Iran is their ally, they have, to a certain degree, a shared resource pool.

[Bumber]

Hypersonic missiles weren't part of Iran's attack. Also there was ample warning time. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the ability of Russia to attack a nearby NATO country closer than Israel is to Iran (12 hours by drone.)

Plus the stakes are much higher for letting a few nuclear ICBMs slip through, should it come to that. A few of Iran's missiles got through, I think, which isn't a problem only so long as they're conventional explosives and miss their mark.

[Madman198237]

Remember that no matter how bad maintenance has been on the Russian nuclear arsenal, no matter how many can be theoretically intercepted by US missile defenses....there's far too many ICBMs with far too many nuclear warheads in the Russian arsenal. There is no scenario where all the Russian nukes are intercepted/fail, and direct casualties would climb into the hundreds of millions.

You're talking about asking *thousands* of weapons, weapons that made up the principal Russian security guarantee post-Soviet collapse, to all fail or be intercepted by a limited supply of US or some allied interceptor systems. The percentages are not in our favor (our favor being "not going to near enough end the world as far as we are all concerned").