I would prefer if we had more links, info, etc.
But yeah, that sucks.
I have created a backup Emotional thread, in case the primary is compromised. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=181482.0)
We all know that it is very common (if anything, this guy is lucky to not be tortured to death) but such visuals... are a stark reminder of what this war really is.What it also highlights is that people are filming these things, sympathetically[1] to the offenders. Which then leaks out, as seen here. Not every war-crime will be recorded, not every recording will be (over-)distributed, not every distribution will be brought to our attention. (And this applies to both/all[2] sides of this conflict, of course.)
I have a weird little conspiracy theory that someone is hacking old-ish accounts to use as troll sockpuppets. It's probably one guy. I don't know how to explain this otherwise, except as the slowest raid ever.I had a similar inkling, but ultimately the logistics don't sit right in my head. And its hardly copypasta, so some imagination used as well as technical success. Then again, for two or three individuals to suddenly deciding to poke their noses in... Quite a 'spate' of such occurances.
It's almost as if having a PMC (even a sockpuppet one) be a significant part of your military is a bad idea."Dude stop dude do you even know how much of a shit idea this is NO NO NO STOP"
Who could've guessed that soldiers and mercenaries don't get along when things are bad?
Recently in Syria, there have been some tensions between mercenaries from the Wagner Company and Russian troops. Patriot offers better soldier’s pay as well as equipment and training that its “rival”. In addition, both companies have competed for a contract to provide security at gold mines located in the Central African Republic. Eventually, the tender was won by the Wagner Company.Really spicy when the Defence Minister in charge of the army runs his own PMC which is a rival to the army and other rival PMCs. It'd be hilarious if this whole Army-Wagner schism seriously only started because Shoigu lost out on contracts for blood money in the CAR against Prigozhin. With such allies, who needs enemies?
It's even funnier when you realise the Russian defence minister Shoigu has his own PMC Patriot and now even Gazprom is setting up its own PMC. Russia is about to enter a warlord era. The moment Putin dies shit will be so fucked, every single Oligarch will have his own private army and each of them will try throw the other out a window before it happens to them
It's even funnier when you realise the Russian defence minister Shoigu has his own PMC Patriot and now even Gazprom is setting up its own PMC. Russia is about to enter a warlord era. The moment Putin dies shit will be so fucked, every single Oligarch will have his own private army and each of them will try throw the other out a window before it happens to them
I really can't understand why any government would allow PMCs to be a thing, letting your people buy military hardware in the first place is a bad idea, letting them establish actual paramilitary groups with a for-profit motive just makes it even dumber. Doesn't matter where they're allowed to fight and who they can fight for, it's just such a dumb thing to do.
I have a weird little conspiracy theory that someone is hacking old-ish accounts to use as troll sockpuppets. It's probably one guy. I don't know how to explain this otherwise, except as the slowest raid ever.I think it instead speaks to a culture shift in the forum and the aging of it's earlier members. As for the most recent incident, I reported him.
The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
It does reek of warlordism. A further breakup Russia is likely.The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Yes, but in the US, all the PMCs were under the control of the same person. By which I mean,Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Moronic? I would say the exact opposite. PMCs allowed Russia a modicum of plausible deniability, operating with almost no oversight or effective legal constraints and have been very effective (and still are in Africa) in pursue Russian objectives in more overt terms because only an idiot would engage the one holding the biggest stick with traditional means.
Also FYI most countries use some variant of mercs, at one point USA had in Iraq almost as many PMCs as regular soldiers (iirc close to 100k, which more than what Wagner have atm)
Edited.
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.This isn't a bug, its a feature.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?
Nah if the war starts early I'll just leave, I'm close to a border with a neutral country so it'll be fine.We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?
So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.Aw shit, here we go again
Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.
So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.Aw shit, here we go again
Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.
>Russian military occupation of territory
>pro-Russian government baits population with talks of EU membership but balks
>protests in the street against pro-Russian government
Sounds like Georgia is becoming Ukraine 2: Electric Boogaloo.
I'm sure the western satanists are involved and the whole thing is a plot to hurt Russia and that no genocide will come of it.
Hey Strongpoint, what's the situation in Bakhmut? Our media is saying it has almost fallen but I don't trust them at all obv.Short answer - Fog of war makes it extremely hard to say what is really happening there.
At least Georgia's Opposition Party can use Ukraine's history and defiance as a roadmap. It'll be hard, but at least they're not grappling blindly.
That is true, but arguably Moscow has fewer resources now to support their puppets, while the opposition has a rally point.At least Georgia's Opposition Party can use Ukraine's history and defiance as a roadmap. It'll be hard, but at least they're not grappling blindly.
On other hand, the Georgian government has a failed example of suppressing protests and may study what went wrong.
Lukashenka kinda did that... but there were many wrong things with Belarusian protests, starting with the lack of properly organized opposition with legal status.
Well, Russia is unable to invade Georgia ATM so if they do everything quickly...What can they achieve though?
Well, Russia is unable to invade Georgia ATM so if they do everything quickly...What can they achieve though?
----
U.S. Officials Say, Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
Russia can do a whole lot of damage to Georgia without making a single shot.
Also they can retaliate by annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia (they wouldn't even need to falsify a referendum) which could lead to escalation that isn't likely to benefit Georgia and may not benefit the west.
Twitter doesn't seem like a trust worthy news source, I'm still not really sure why people still take that shit hole seriously.
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.Just wait until the next guy in our local Putinist Tag Team comes here...
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.
Some amusing stuff:
We have a website with petitions to the president. You know, usual stuff with 99% of proposals being silly nonsense with a few dozen of signatures. But sometimes some things get 25K signatures. One of those is petition to rename Russian Federation into Muscovy in all official Ukrainian documents. And it got a usual answer, something along the lines of "I'll ask the PM to look into the possibility"
But butthurt in the Russian segment of social networks (up to Zakharova and Medveded) is so entertaining to watch.
Some amusing stuff:
We have a website with petitions to the president. You know, usual stuff with 99% of proposals being silly nonsense with a few dozen of signatures. But sometimes some things get 25K signatures. One of those is petition to rename Russian Federation into Muscovy in all official Ukrainian documents. And it got a usual answer, something along the lines of "I'll ask the PM to look into the possibility"
But butthurt in the Russian segment of social networks (up to Zakharova and Medveded) is so entertaining to watch.
Could you explain the butthurt? As I understand, Muscovy was one of the predecessor political entities of current Russia. While I would certainly think someone referring to Germany as Prussia, for example, to be strange or stupid, depending on their intent, I don't think I would feel offended very much. Is the use of Muscovy somehow derogatory, or is it just the usual nationlistic pride?
Agreed, Russia does not want a political crisis in Georgia... They want the Georgian government to be stronger and to be able to exert more control.Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
Russia got a pro-Russian government in Georgia, way more pro-Russian than the population (Note that both the aggression against Ukraine and Russians who fled from mobilization to Georgia made the local population more anti-Russian than before.)
No, Russia does not want a political crisis in Georgia that may put another government in charge.
I fail to see how the second part changes anything for Georgia. De facto annexed territories over which Georgia has no control or hope to get them back will stay that way. And it is even more mysterious for me how it hurts "The West"That is not how Georgia view this, they regard those breakaway republic as occupied, with unification still high on the agenda; I am not convinced this is unrealistic view given Georgia policies and future prospects especially if Russia goes under.
I fail to see how the second part changes anything for Georgia. De facto annexed territories over which Georgia has no control or hope to get them back will stay that way. And it is even more mysterious for me how it hurts "The West"That is not how Georgia view this, they regard those breakaway republic as occupied, with unification still high on the agenda; I am not convinced this is unrealistic view given Georgia policies and future prospects especially if Russia goes under.
As for the second part, I am talking about possible outcome of things escalating in Georgia, which could undermine the west position.
It's also great as a medium to reach dogma sources, liars, crazy people, and lots and lots of art of varying degrees of quality. But the filter bubbles inherent in its system are blinders that completely blot out certain narratives, diminish others, and re-frame yet more to appear to be something they're not. It's a mess. A lively, thriving mess that needs more competitors.
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.
Spoiler: Duck (click to show/hide)
What are the news on Bakhmut strategy, we seem to have some conflicting version from Ukraine?Local analysts think the idea is that keeping the town stalls the Russian offensive from developing further inward, which would let them keep the initiative and hobble Ukrainian preparations for their own offensive. Claims in the news that they're grinding the enemy down seem to hold less water now, that the town is in operational encirclement and losses are closer to equal on both sides. But since it's mainly light infantry doing the fighting, the losses may have been deemed acceptable.
Invasive birds? Do they taste good?Duck's one of those meats I seriously miss after going vegetarian.
Could be. Looking at the topographical map, I am not sure how far their next line would be, although it does give credence to the idea that is not as bad as it seems. From what I hear, it would be very hard for Russia to finish that encirclement against Ukrainian position on the high ground, likely its not their goal instead they are going would try to push north toward Ukrainians artillery position to widen the Ukrainian corridor, maybe even try for a bigger encirclement.What are the news on Bakhmut strategy, we seem to have some conflicting version from Ukraine?Local analysts think the idea is that keeping the town stalls the Russian offensive from developing further inward, which would let them keep the initiative and hobble Ukrainian preparations for their own offensive. Claims in the news that they're grinding the enemy down seem to hold less water now, that the town is in operational encirclement and losses are closer to equal on both sides. But since it's mainly light infantry doing the fighting, the losses may have been deemed acceptable.
I suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Swiss neutrality is more important than ever, President Alain Berset said in an interview published Sunday, defending the controversial ban on transferring Swiss-made arms to Ukraine.LOL
"Swiss weapons must not be used in wars," he told the NZZ am Sonntag weekly.
We got definitive proof that Ukrainians are not Nazis. Because if we were, Switzerland would supply us with ammo.
Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battel if you pleaseI suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Ho HO!Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battle if you pleaseI suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battel if you pleaseCheck your map again. It's more like 500 feet. >If< you assume the worst possible route of advance. But they already control elevated positions west of Krasna Hora and south of Chasiv Yar.
Check your map again. It's more like 500 feet. >If< you assume the worst possible route of advance. But they already control elevated positions west of Krasna Hora and south of Chasiv Yar.Damn imperial old and new, it is ft. Strongpoint were 100% correct. But do you think the terrain doesn't favor Ukraine? or that Russia is likely to attempt finish the encirclement or push north west as I heard?
Navalny is a clown. He is an useful clown (to the opposition cause), but still a clown. Would do nothing against the oligarchs even if he or his followers somehow ended up in power, ensuring Russia would remain or turn back in short order to the same hellhole. I support the relatively disorganized socialist/neocommunist opposition more tbh. Whatever they bring can't be worse.У нас в России есть такая традиция - каждые 100 лет наступать на те же грабли.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.It is not necessarily wrong. There are a lot of people in Russia who don't support Putin, who knew his narrative are pure BS from day one, and were helpless todo anything but watch as their whole lives go down the drain. Ever been in inevitable car accident, like where you stand in jam watching in the rear mirror as some idiot getting closer and closer and closer.. only its your life..
If the city falls (and remember that it has been falling Any Day Now for more than six months), the forces in the city are very likely fully prepared to defend their homes a little further to the east.The question is how far back.. It's not just a matter of digging some trenches, there is a line to maintain, question of logistics, finding good natural or otherwise barriers that set the odds in our favor.
if it follows previous patterns it is very likely that significant chunks of territory will be liberated
It is not necessarily wrong. There are a lot of people in Russia who don't support Putin, who knew his narrative are pure BS from day one, and were helpless todo anything but watch as their whole lives go down the drain. Ever been in inevitable car accident, like where you stand in jam watching in the rear mirror as some idiot getting closer and closer and closer.. only its your life..
At this point the goal is to undermine Putin support, once people stop dying we can worry about being pedantics, and separating the regime from the people is a simple way to give some an alternative and avoid getting others backs up
Conversely this is exactly the opposite of Putin narrative, who from the start tried to paint his invasion as global affair i.e. Russian's war, Russian Mir, east vs west, religious western moral decadents etc.But this is the truth. This is the war of Russia vs the West. It is an attempt to spread Russian Mir. The only thing Putin is lying about here is who actually desires this war.
consequently there were example kids of immigrants from USSR, who spoke Russian but were born outside of Russia who had their kids picked on at school because they are Russians.What a pity! They are bullied, I, who reads news about killed and maimed children with grim regularity, am very sympathetic to their immense struggle.
I think you're being pedantic and that by "Russia" they mean "Russian people, specifically those not responsible for the war".
Ukraine has a "Freedom of Russia Legion". What do you think the name alludes to?
This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
I am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.QuoteAt this point the goal is to undermine Putin support, once people stop dying we can worry about being pedantics, and separating the regime from the people is a simple way to give some an alternative and avoid getting others backs upIt is like saying in the midst of WW2: At this point, the goal is to undermine Hitler's support.
What good will it do if Putin will be replaced by someone more competent if Russia will retain the same ideology? They'll try again in a few years or decades.
I am talking about Russian propaganda trying to increase public support by presenting Putins attempt to make imperialisms great again as defensive war of no choice waged against all Russians (common tactic e.g. Erdogan does this with muslims) and shared history values narratives against to bring former glory back against his liberal gay elite satanist. But yes you could say that the latest installment in Putin's campaign to preserve his regime, end American hegemony, and reinstate Russia as a global power has failed to meet its objectives and devolved to a global conflict.QuoteConversely this is exactly the opposite of Putin narrative, who from the start tried to paint his invasion as global affair i.e. Russian's war, Russian Mir, east vs west, religious western moral decadents etc.But this is the truth. This is the war of Russia vs the West. It is an attempt to spread Russian Mir. The only thing Putin is lying about here is who actually desires this war.
BTW, in most cases bullying happens not for merely being Russians but for openly supporting Russia and its genocidal war. Russian diaspora all over the world is extremely pro-war.Maybe, but I can tell you that bulling kids that didn't know that Russia exist, certainly increased sentiments not in support of Russia but against the west.
Navalny is openly racist, openly Russian-imperialist. He's not "decent". He's the exact same shit.This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
I am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.Not it wouldn't. It has some modest effect on public opinion and it is a rather minor thing if taken in isolation. But I see a trend, a narrative that is harmful not only to my country but to the world.
Navalny is a step in the right direction. He is against the war, acknowledged Crimea is Ukrainian not too far back. If that is an opposition figure that is palatable to Russians then so be it.He's full of shit. The swerve about Crimea is too little, too late, and too convenient. In the past he defended the Russianness of Crimea. He's alsoludicrously racist against Georgians and defended the military intervention in Georgia. He's really pretty bad
In the end the question becomes whether you want to make things better or wring out some personal emotional satisfaction. Russian society needs guidance and time to reform.
My apologies, I didn't know.Navalny is openly racist, openly Russian-imperialist. He's not "decent". He's the exact same shit.This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
How does saying saying that "Russia is a deeply immoral society that needs some serious fixing" is beneficial to Ukraine or the world?QuoteI am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.Not it wouldn't. It has some modest effect on public opinion and it is a rather minor thing if taken in isolation. But I see a trend, a narrative that is harmful not only to my country but to the world.
Instead of saying "Russia is a deeply immoral society that needs some serious fixing." we are getting cartoonish "remove Putin('s regime) and all will be cool and good in no time!"
If he could end the war and pull Russia out of Ukraine completely. Do you think it would matter?Navalny is a step in the right direction. He is against the war, acknowledged Crimea is Ukrainian not too far back. If that is an opposition figure that is palatable to Russians then so be it.He's full of shit. The swerve about Crimea is too little, too late, and too convenient. In the past he defended the Russianness of Crimea. He's also ludicrously racist against Georgians and defended the military intervention in Georgia. He's really pretty bad
In the end the question becomes whether you want to make things better or wring out some personal emotional satisfaction. Russian society needs guidance and time to reform.
Because USA deals with a lot of bad people. We all know that dictators are bad, except, well.. when they're kind of OK. Even terrorist have become statesman as their abhorrent ideas and actions are white washed. On the world stage some times you have to work with bad people as the only way to affect positive change and or maintain your interests.An argument can be made that perhaps one shouldn't. That this willingness to make deals with the devil to further your own cause is what's wrong with the world. When it happens on a small scale, one runs a risk of being branded corrupt or a collaborator. But if you're large enough, it's realpolitik.
If he could end the war and pull Russia out of Ukraine completely. Do you think it would matter?If my uncle had 3 balls, he'd be a pinball machine.
Because USA deals with a lot of bad people. We all know that dictators are bad, except, well.. when they're kind of OK. Even terrorist have become statesman as their abhorrent ideas and actions are white washed. On the world stage some times you have to work with bad people as the only way to affect positive change and or maintain your interests.An argument can be made that perhaps one shouldn't. That this willingness to make deals with the devil to further your own cause is what's wrong with the world. When it happens on a small scale, one runs a risk of being branded corrupt or a collaborator. But if you're large enough, it's realpolitik.
The pragmatists will call this approach naive. Others may call it principled.
Poland arrested some guys who were attempting sabotage on Polish railways (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11863857/Russian-plot-sabotage-Polands-train-lines-uncovered.html)Russian Agents successfully lobby for more supplies to Ukraine!
Poland arrested some guys who were attempting sabotage on Polish railways (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11863857/Russian-plot-sabotage-Polands-train-lines-uncovered.html)Muscovite sabotage on Polish NATO soil? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEGo41443iI&t=41s)
Russian leadership approved aggressive actions of jets that damaged U.S. drone, U.S. officials say (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russian-leaders-approved-actions-jets-downed-us-drone-rcna75166)A lot of hemming and hawing going on if the source is true.
EDIT: US releases footage of Russian jet crashing into drone (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-64974825)"Totally accidental, guys!"
As far as I'm concerned, it's an act of war. Don't let them salami tactic their way out of this.
An act of war is a casus belli. It doesn't mean war has to start, but you shouldn't ignore it nonchalantly by wording it as an "accident" when it clearly is anything but an accident, nor should you act like it's nothing.As far as I'm concerned, it's an act of war. Don't let them salami tactic their way out of this.
We didn't go to war when Iran shot a drone down. We didn't go to war when China forced a manned spy plane down. We didn't go to war when the Soviet Union shot down an allied nation's airliner. Wars rarely break out over incidents this small.
at very least it seem like a good time to announce Poland to transfer MiG-29 jets to Ukraine within days (https://www.dw.com/en/poland-to-transfer-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine-within-days/a-65009216)+10 from Slovakia
123 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Out of them 33 are African States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/african-states), 19 are Asia-Pacific States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/asian-states), 18 are from Eastern Europe (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/eastern-european-states), 28 are from Latin American and Caribbean States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/latin-american-and-caribbean-states), and 25 are from Western European and other States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/western-european-and-other-states).
It's very possible that we are watching the end of international law as a concept.
So I doubt that countries of the Global South will be very interested in choosing Russia over the USA like it often was the case with the USSR. China is a much better choice if the West is not an option.Those are the same choice, though.
I am not sure that Russia is willing to play the role of a junior partner, it has too many ambitions for that. It is like China never liked the role of the USSR's junior partner.I don't think it is but I don't see how it has a choice.
I mean… the US doesn’t acknowledge the authority of the ICC either, so I don’t think it’s as big a deal as MaxSpin makes out.Don't you think that's part of the problem, though? To be sure, the ICC is just one institution that Russia and China want to discredit, and not by any stretch the most important, but the fact that its credit is already so low makes it an especially weak link. The way the US just ignores it while everyone else is expected to care what it says is exactly the point they'd make.
We are the Fascist Italy
I mean… the US doesn’t acknowledge the authority of the ICC either, so I don’t think it’s as big a deal as MaxSpin makes out.Indeed
I am not sure that Russia is willing to play the role of a junior partner...
That ICC thing sounds like it exists to make people feel better while it doesn't actually do anything for the most part.It could be a sign that west has lost any hope of finding compromise with Putin, finalizing the break. Otherwise, it is mostly Symbolic measure, however between casting Putin as a war criminal and the ICC warrant (as impotent as it is) it could help build up Putin's isolation.
The ICC is the best foundation to prevent "might is right" and "ethnic-genocide" groups from committing atrocities in their own countries and in other countries (through overt war or through subversive actions). It focuses on activity that should be condemned in all societies.It's a consistent stumbling block though which tends to make the world a worse place. Like the league of nations, the USA has the real power to make moral international law carry weight. And like the league of nations, its absence is sorely noted. You end up with situations where the USA is accusing China of breaking the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by building these coral reef bases in the SCS but then the USA is one of the few non-landlocked nations left who is yet to sign it - it becomes all too easy then for China or Russia to point out "rules for me and rules for thee" and be 100% correct. It may not be idealism to suggest that any real first step towards a rule of law based international diplomacy starts with the most powerful democracy following those rules
There are reasons the USA won't join the ICC, besides the Afghanistan stuff. It gets down to there being too many US politicians whose donors have economic interests in other countries where actions are taken that would be illegal if those actions were taken in the USA.
[..]
One of Russia's (and China's) core diplomatic goals is exposing the edifice of international law as a paper-tiger sham that only functions as a coercive implement for the US and its allies to threaten countries that aren't playing along, and the problem for the West is that... well, it kind of is. When the ICC makes a pronouncement like this, Russia predictably blows it off, and nothing happens, other nations, particularly in the global south, are watching.
[..]
America likely has no hope of winning over the global south. They are the ones who will be the most affected by climate change and America/The-West-as-a-whole are the main causes of it.
There’s little one can do to make up for remorselessly causing ecological damage
Footage is emerging of tanks being hauled out of Russian storage and heading West.
T-54s - which entered production in 1946. The ones I've seen pictures of on trains look like fairly early models as well.
I doubt those will be used as frontline tanks, some kind of conversion or use as a (crappy) indirect-fire artillery is more likely. But you never know.From Russian military bloggers, there are already reports of tanks being used as indirect artillery, which is a problem because tank barrels wear out quickly when overused like this and they don't have enough replacement barrels, so their accuracy goes to shit over time. They also have this exact same problem for artillery barrels too; not enough barrels, too many shots fired, accuracy goes down - so more shots are needed to achieve even less, wearing out more barrels in a positive feedback loop that only makes Russia's logistics problems worse and worse
I expected to see T-72-level stuff imported from China or North Korea (also China) before this and it is really good news that we see none so far.
The trade-off being that they're now going to be refurbished M1A1s instead of new M1A2s. And I still think 30ish tanks in autumn-winter, after what's likely to be the most important phase of the fighting, when you have thousands in storage - is a joke.Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.
Artillery barrels are also a big problem on our side. General wear and tear is not a joke either.How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
But the largest problem is exhaustion. Many units got a year of constant combat with little to no rotation and it shows. Exhausted people make costly mistakes. Fresh units can't come soon enough.
Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions
Also, Bradleys are already coming and I think those are far more needed on the frontline and those are coming, I heard rumors that some are already near the frontlines.
How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions
That's generally not how this kind of foreign aid works - you train the instructors who then train the people who are going to be going into combat. You wind up with a far greater number of trained personnel that way, because you're not throwing away the core training cadre.That's how it worked from 2014-2022 with Operation Orbital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital) where the UK focused on training medical training, logistics, intelligence analysis and infantry training (https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/24/britain-to-send-military-advisers-to-ukraine-cameron). But when the war broke out focus shifted away from training instructors & NCOs on generalist lines towards filling Ukraine's immediate skill gaps. The UK's successor program Operation Interflex (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Interflex) as well as the American (https://time.com/6246181/patriot-training-ukraine-russia/) and Polish training efforts (https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/polish-soldiers-train-ukrainian-tank-crews-on-leopards)have focused on getting brigades of combined arms units trained with advanced western equipment as quickly as possible. Part of this is also important politically, as both Poland (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/09/polish-president-calls-for-training-of-ukrainian-pilots-to-operate-f-16-fighter-jets-cnn/) and UK (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-train-ukrainian-fighter-pilots/) have pushed for training Ukrainian fighter pilots, which is an obvious and necessary precursor to sending western jets to Ukraine as quickly as possible
LONDON — They come to the U.K. in their thousands — Ukrainians from every walk of life, in urgent need of military training to protect their homeland.Of course Macron would -_-
From lawyers to bricklayers, they are flown in from across Ukraine. The aim is to turn the new recruits into soldiers in just five weeks, providing basic military skills — infantry tactics; weapons handling; patroling; first aid; evacuation — before they return to fight on the frontline.
“We set a target of 10,000 troops — but through this pipeline, I envisage that we will continue to train as many as are sent by Ukraine,” he told the U.K. parliament last week. “We are already seeing this make a difference to the combat effectiveness of Ukraine.”
On the other side of the English Channel, the picture is very different.
France — western Europe’s other great military power — has decided against launching a mass training scheme of Ukrainian soldiers, an adviser to the French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said, in line with French President Emmanuel Macron’s “wish to remain a ‘balancing power.’”
According to official French government figures, France has trained a grand total of 40 Ukrainian soldiers since the war began, chiefly on the use of French Caesar self-propelled guns.
“Emmanuel Macron was very clear — Ukraine will and must win, but Russia must not be humiliated,” the adviser said. “Our line is to show our solidarity with Ukraine to help her towards victory — but if not, to be able to play a role when the conflict stops.”
Don't put too much stock in this - the isolationists and the pro-Russia idiots (who are essentially the same people) are a mostly ignored minority. If somehow only Republicans were allowed to vote, you'd still be getting veto-proof majorities in favor of aiding Ukraine. This is the most united Americans have been on a foreign relations issue since 2001.I hope so. Polling does show that Republican and Democrat voters are still broadly united in supporting Ukraine, my worry is that if the Republicans won under someone like Trump, that even those Republicans in favour of supporting Ukraine would rather support their party than support their favoured foreign policy choice "rather be Russian than a democrat" mentality
How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
It is hard to tell how deep our reserves are but this goes beyond guys who are training abroad. Some of the new units are armed exclusively with captured Russian\repaired Ukrainian\formerly Eastern European hardware and those are trained locally or in Eastern Europe with far more modest media coverage. Also, there are troops that stand in places like the Belarus border and some of the exhausted units may be moved there when\if the offensive start.I hope so. I remember some British troops noting very wryly in WWI that they got moved away from the brutal fighting in the western front to a more quiet part of the trenches. That segment of the trenches was quiet because the Germans were going to attack there next and wanted to give the false impression they had lost interest. Hopefully there'll be no northern attack in such case :P
From Nicholas to Stalin and Putin beyondIt is my hope that Russia wakes up from its dreams of imperial conquest and instead learns how to look after her own people so that in 100 years time, the maxim gun can finally retire
Great kings and dictators cast rocks at small ponds
Dreaming of Empires forever in sun
Woken by the chatter of the old maxim gun
I'm still also incredibly surprised at the Russian copium going on, with Russian hosts even responding to mockery of their T-54 desperation by saying yes indeed they would mobilise T-34 museum pieces if they had to. When do you stop and think "maybe we are embarking on a path of self-destruction?"
Here's a q: will a bank collapse lead to faltering EU support?Probably, but then again most anything bad will lead to faltering EU/US support.
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops. And ships. Need to take out the black sea fleet so Russia can't cut them off from the sea or protect Crimea from a counterinvasion
That's something I worry about too. There has to be a breaking point even without that, but it's not at all clear to me where that is.There's also the factor that an outsized burden is placed upon ethnic minorities within Russia, and the sheer waste that is occurring as a result of all these men being killed for no reason / forced to flee abroad. It's fairly symbolic that a neurosurgeon was mobilised for example, and used as regular infantry, not even as a doctor (https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/31/russias-bashkortostan-the-only-childrens-neurosurgeon-in-city-of-sterlitamak-drafted-under-partial-mobilisation-en-news). But because he's bashkir he's fair game to be used in suicidal attacks because he won't be missed in Moscow or St. Petersburg, despite the fact that such peoples will be sorely missed in Russia
People keep throwing around the adage that manpower is cheap to Russia, and it's starting to seem that's true. Again, there's an absolute limit on how many people they can waste. I expect that Russian society would protest well before they literally get to the point that they can't get more people to throw at the war, but at what point? 250,000 KIA? 1,000,000? More? At what point does the future economic damage dissuade them if not the human cost?
Unless something drastic happens, like Putin dying and that miraculously leading to the new leadership calling everything off, I don't see this ending in the next few years.
Also what Ukraine really needs is not troops, tanks, aircrafts... Ukraine needs ballistic and cruise missiles and permission to use those on targets in Russia destroying logistics and the ability to strike from across the border. But this is seen as an unacceptable escalation by our allies....This has always been a curious point for me, since I never really understood the American hesitance to allow long range weapon systems to strike targets in Russia even though it will be necessary to actually win the war. Ukrainians have already shelled Russian settlements like Belgorod so it's not like it would be radical for Ukrainian troops to cross the Russian border to exploit weaknesses or for railway lines/logistic hubs/naval & air bases to be struck. I suppose the big worry from top NATO generals would be - if Ukraine gains the ability to target Russian nuclear deterrence sites, are the Russians going to be able to distinguish between a cruise missile strike on an air base or a pre-emptive strike against a nuclear armed site?
but I never can really predict what the Americans do
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
According to Zelensky: "No Ukraine offensive without more weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952)"
I don't know if it is true. But otherwise I heard that:
(1) Ukraine remained in Bakhmut is to keep Russia engaged, fearing that pulling out would lead to Russian operational stop like we seen northward.
(2) Ukraine will only have a chance for one counter attack in the near future.
The context for the bit about one chance at an offensive that is being talked about is that the Western support might dry up when faced with little gains and nothing but a prolonged WWI-style slugfest in sight.
The UK is odd in that the MOD says it won't rule out allowing strikes in Russia (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-not-ruling-out-giving-ukraine-missiles-to-reach-russia/) whilst the PM says its official stance is to "discourage" using British cruise missiles to strike Russia (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/20/ukraine-should-have-no-problem-arming-its-old-soviet-jets-with-new-british-cruise-missiles/). I wonder how much of that is a hard red line or just a "you can strike Russia but we can't be seen to encourage this" posturing. It is probably also only a matter of time before the USA gives Ukraine cruise missiles, but I never can really predict what the Americans do. There is also talk of Ukraine manufacturing its own domestic cruise missiles, which it would be free to use however it wished, but I think that's just talk for now, or else is being kept secret because I can't find any reliable source confirming this is underway.
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
According to Zelensky: "No Ukraine offensive without more weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952)"
I don't know if it is true. But otherwise I heard that:
(1) Ukraine remained in Bakhmut is to keep Russia engaged, fearing that pulling out would lead to Russian operational stop like we seen northward.
(2) Ukraine will only have a chance for one counter attack in the near future.
Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
That's not very moist at all
How would being moist fix the problem though?Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
That's not very moist at all
Most Ukrainians are in the state of "you don't criticize your government during a war" but there will be many questions asked after it. And if Zelensky is likely to have a good political future thanks to his actions during the war, his party in the parliament...
But I don't even want to speculate about the possible post-war electoral situation, It will be utter chaos and I prefer not to think about the depths of political, economical, social, and demographic crises that will hit us as soon as war is over (or merely paused)
How would being moist fix the problem though?A moist war machine is a well lubricated war machine
Most Ukrainians are in the state of "you don't criticize your government during a war" but there will be many questions asked after it. And if Zelensky is likely to have a good political future thanks to his actions during the war, his party in the parliament...Even if he didn't start the war playing the Churchill role, he has (to us Brits, and quite deliberately so) played that card during the conflict so far, and maybe he'll get the same post-war electoral result for his pains?
But I don't even want to speculate about the possible post-war electoral situation, It will be utter chaos and I prefer not to think about the depths of political, economical, social, and demographic crises that will hit us as soon as war is over (or merely paused)
Not sure how we got to lubricated MaoistsBut just think about how well they'll slide and how hard it would be to catch them afterward.
After his 12 year old daughter made an anti-war drawing at school, a Russian man has been sentenced to 2 years in a penal colony. His 12 year old daughter has been sent to psychiatric care.The real story is still bad but there are more nuances
A Russian man who was detained by police after his daughter drew anti-war pictures at school was sentenced on Tuesday to two years after being convicted of discrediting the armed force.
But in a dramatic turn of events, a court spokesperson said the man, Alexei Moskalyov, had fled house arrest overnight and his whereabouts were currently not known
Moskalyov, a single parent from the town of Yefremov, 150 miles south of Moscow, has been separated from his 13-year-old daughter since he was placed under house arrest at the start of this month and she was moved to a state-run shelter.
The family said they had faced pressure from police since last April when his daughter, a sixth-grader, refused to participate in a patriotic class at her school and made several drawings showing rockets being fired at a family standing under a Ukrainian flag and another that said “Glory to Ukraine!”
School officials at the time summoned the police, who questioned the girl and threatened her father.
Police then began examining Moskalyov’s social media activity and the father was eventually charged with discrediting the armed forces for his posts in which he called the Russian regime “terrorists” and described the Russian army as “rapists”.
According to the MSK1 news outlet, the children’s shelter was having an “emergency” meeting following the news that Moskalyov had fled.
Moskalyov’s lawyer, Vladimir Bilienko, previously told the Guardian that the girl would be moved to an orphanage if no close relative could be found who was willing to take care of her.
But just think about how well they'll slide and how hard it would be to catch them afterward.Peng Deuhai's boys in Korea were legendarily slippery maoists. The ability to move hundreds of thousands of men into enemy lines whilst being observed by enemy aircraft and do so undetected is just incredible deception, organisational and maneuvre acumen
So tl, dr:Attention citizen, your patriotism levels have fallen below acceptable legal limits
- he wasnt in a penal colony. He was under house arrest
- he was sentenced for his ownposts. Not for his daughters drawings (which did draw attention to him though)
- the child was in a shelter, not under psychiatric care
He was under house arrest, but he has been sentenced to 2 years penal colony. He fled his house arrest and was found and arrested today. He is probably in the penal colony now.
- he wasnt in a penal colony. He was under house arrest
- the child was in a shelter, not under psychiatric care
'Shelter', yeaah sure. That's just Russia's word for child psych ward in this case
I'm assuming that say at the "shelter" also includes reeducation as part of it.
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.I don't know who is behind it, certainly there are far more interesting targets in Russia for Ukraine that are vital to its war effort
Take your pick.Thats so Trotskyish...
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Do we even know it was Russian rebels? For all we know Putin could have organized it explicitly for propaganda, its not beyond him.
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Not great, but this war is no stranger to blowing up civilians for effectively no reason or gain. So this doesn't strike me as particularly new.
"Cyber Front Z, a group calling itself "Russia's information troops" on Telegram, said it had hired out the cafe for the evening.- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65155075
Do we even know it was Russian rebels? For all we know Putin could have organized it explicitly for propaganda, its not beyond him.
Especially as a bombing. If you wanted one guy in one cafe rebels would hurt their own image less by knifing or shooting him.
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers with a Telegram platform of 560,000 followers and deep connections with the Wagner Group, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and the Russian nationalists who have been dominating the Russian information space since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Fomin’s assassination at a Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Fomin’s death marks the first high-profile assassination of an ultranationalist milblogger in Russia since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-2-2023
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.If he's smart he'll report himself to the ICC in the Hague. At least he'll get life there.
Yeah, he was from the category of "military bloggers" who are not only fully supporting the war and advocating for genocide but also call Russian generals morons and traitors who should be punished for failures.Makes one wonder if he was killed by the Russian military. It should be noted that the mil blogger killed was a veteran from Dontesk militia units, not the Russian military itself. Besides tensions between the PMCs and Russian military, there have also been tensions between the Luhansk and Donetsk militias and the Rusisan military units. Considering how the D/L militia units were used as cannon fodder by Russian high command in the 2014-2021 period of the war, it's interesting to see a role reversal:
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.
His platoon was then sent to Donetsk, but without being told that they were to join an assault brigade in the militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. He said the troops had been transferred "without any orders, explanations" and were told to storm villages "without reconnaissance, without communications," or even maps.There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualty
The soldier, who described himself as a senior lieutenant, said he and his comrades "do not refuse to complete objectives but only as part of the Russian armed forces"—rather than serving under the Donetsk militia.
He added: "Personnel are dying, this is all that is left of my platoon, of the whole company. It is complete b*******."
One of the “LNR” and “DNR” armies’ tasks is to attack the Ukrainian military’s positions constantly along the “old” line of contact in order to tie down Ukraine’s forces there. This often requires advancing without support from artillery and armored vehicles, both of which are in short supply, leading to heavy losses.Oh lord, they brought back Stalin's blocker brigades
When manpower from the occupied territories eventually ran out, the Russian military began replacing it with draftees from Russia. The result is that their combat capability is now as low as the other units of the Russian army that are being supplemented with draftees, according to Mikhailov.
“Previously, Donetsk and Luhansk draftees were being used as expendable materials; now it’s Russian ones. They can’t fight any other way. If they don’t fundamentally change their approach, which I doubt they will, then the Russian draftees will continue to die like this,” he told iStories.
Matveyev agrees: Russia’s military command will likely continue using Russian draftees to launch assaults on Ukraine’s positions in the Donbas.
Draftees say they’ve been transferred to the “DNR’s” First Slavic Brigade, which is a part of the “People’s Militia.” In a single day, they say, they were divided into “assault brigades” and sent “to the slaughter” — to storm Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka. Anyone who refuses to join the “assault brigades,” the draftees claim, is “shot from assault rifles and BMPs [infantry fighting vehicle].” They say that one of the battalions from their regiment has been “practically completely destroyed.”
There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualtyThe militias have been integrated with the Russian military, following the annexation of the 'republics'. So it wouldn't make sense.
There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualtyThe militias have been integrated with the Russian military, following the annexation of the 'republics'. So it wouldn't make sense.
They arrested… some woman as far as I can tell (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65161095).
Apparently Navalny is involved, from his prison cell. Somehow?
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.
Border of Steel is one of eight new storm brigades totalling 40,000 soldiers that Ukraine wants to use during a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers in coming weeks or months. The units have benefited from an aggressive recruiting campaign on social media and billboards with the aim of attracting highly motivated volunteers. The new brigades, drafted by the Interior Ministry, will fight alongside regular army units bolstered by new Western battle tanks and thousands of fresh troops trained by allied armies outside Ukraine. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko told Reuters he believed Ukraine still had considerable mobilisation potential and that his recruits included women, people with no military experience and former police officers and servicemen.Well-equipped, well-led, well-motivated volunteer troops can have an overall effect well in excess of what linear numbers would indicate possible. Conversely, the Russian military bloggers complain about how the Russian high command has taken what few combat ready brigades Russia had left/reconstituted and broken them on the anvil of Bakhmut for no strategic gain. Obviously the bloggers may just be wrong/spreading disinformation but public information does corroborate two things - that Russia did send some of its best in Bakhmut, and that it did suffer horrendous losses
The battle over the ruined city of Bakhmut is pinning down Russia's best units and degrading them ahead of a planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky has said.In the best case scenario, Russia's best remaining combat ready brigades are broken. But it's also possible that the casualties fall disproportionately on the mobilised conscripts & wagner's prisoner recruits who were just used to identify weaknesses in suicidal assaults so the actual soldiers could launch attacks with less casualties
Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine has decided to fight on in the small easten town, the site of the war's bloodiest battle as Moscow tries to secure its first victory in more than half a year.
"Russia has changed tactics," Mr Podolyak told Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."
"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."
Russia has made Bakhmut the main target of a winter offensive involving hundreds of thousands of reservists and mercenaries. It has succeeded in capturing the eastern part of the city and the outskirts to the north and south, but has so far failed to close a ring around Ukrainian defenders there.
Has anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordEven more hilarious: It was probably leaked by some white male ultra-conservative Republican religious zealot.
Has anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordI am curious do you have link? (for the documents not the other stuff)
Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?It seems to be a mix of real documents and edited documents
While at least some of the images from the first leak appeared crudely doctored, the authenticity of the latest batch has not been immediately questioned. The New York Times described the leak as “a nightmare for the Five Eyes” – the intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Nah I didn't see it before it got taken downHas anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordI am curious do you have link? (for the documents not the other stuff)
It may also be a controlled leak with some disinformation sprinkled in.The leak seems to discredit the current US Administration. It seems like the intent was to weaken US resolve and the current US Administration.
I suspect each person's docs have their name on the top. If there is a corner of the top document obscured, that is probably where the name would be.If that's the only clue to have, it would be stupidity itself to have released with the corner intact (or not changed to implicate another; or perhaps changed to look like it was changed to implicate another (but wasn't), if anybody is dangerously playing the long-con).
Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?We don't know whether the documents in the original leak are authentic, although many believe they are. If it is some sort of long-con then they have gone to great pains to sell it.
American officials said while the documents offer hints about U.S. methods to collect information on Russian plans, U.S. intelligence agencies do not yet know if any of their sources of information will be cut off as a result of the leak. American officials have conceded they have lost some sources of information since the war began, but the new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive.
But the leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information.
The leak has already complicated relations with allied countries and raised doubts about America’s ability to keep its secrets. After reviewing the documents, a senior Western intelligence official said the release of the material was painful and suggested that it could curb intelligence sharing. For various agencies to provide material to each other, the official said, requires trust and assurances that certain sensitive information will be kept secret.
The documents could also hurt diplomatic ties in other ways. The newly reveal intelligence documents also make plain that the U.S. is not just spying on Russia, but also its allies. While that will hardly surprise officials, making such eavesdropping public always hampers relations with key partners, like South Korea, whose help is needed to supply Ukraine with weaponry.
https://archive.is/d6FZS
Speaking of potentially controlled leaks, to throw it back a bit and talk about that defecting officer with claims of Putin going off the deep end.In what way does the defector story seem "off"?
What do you guys wager on the possibility of it being a way to scapegoat Putin (not that he needs any extra blame for the whole shitshow) and enable a cleaner transition to someone else after he's potentially removed from power. Think about it, who are you more likely to trust (for lack of a better word) or support in the aftermath, folks who were along for the ride while the lootin' was good and who turned on the driver the moment it started to get costly for them, or the folks claiming they were forced along by a madman who offered them no choice in the matter.
It's a fairly long shot and we probably won't ever know for sure (unless big P comes out and outs himself as being batshit crazy) but the whole thing just reeks of being off in some way. It would be the most straightforward explanation for why the whole thing began, but at the same time, way too convenient of an out for everyone involved.
That said, even if it turns out to be true, I doubt it'll do much to help some of the more involved individuals from getting off unscathed (Nuremberg style trials come to mind for some of the involved)
Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)
I don't see how the song funky town can be anywhere near that level of awful.
to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
Oh I thought you meant like they lost the war, and had a massive change.to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
Well, magically removing Russia is impossible anyway. It is the emotional thread, remember?
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto focused on protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin from possible “sabotage” and “betrayal.” The “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto on April 17 on its newly created Telegram channel, which emphasizes protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin instead of efforts to win the war in Ukraine.[25] The manifesto claims that unspecified actors who remain in power in Russia have transferred their money and allegiance to the West and may be preparing for a coup and the ”dismemberment” of the Russia Federation. The manifesto likens the Kremlin‘s pro-war and anti-war factions to the fight between the Reds and Whites in the Russian Civil War following the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. The manifesto also claims that Russia is currently fighting the war in a mediocre way and is unable to defeat Ukraine in its current state. ISW previously assessed that Girkin and the “Club of Angry Patriots” may be attempting to advance the political goals of unnamed figures in Russian power structures who want to influence Putin’s decision making through public discourse.[26]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17-2023
That is the guy whose daughter was murdered, right?Girkin is former Russian officer and ardent nationalist, who played a key role in Russian annexation of Crimean and the Donbas since 2014, who is now a prominent pro-war milblogger and has been often quoted in westren media over his strong criticism of Russian strategy in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)As an antidote for inhumanity here's a video of Ukrainians building a checkpoint for cats (https://imgur.com/gallery/7o4yn17)
The most dangerous threat to national security turned out to be... somebody who's wrong on the internet"I must do my duty and alter the course of civilisation because I KNOW I'M CORRECT"
The most dangerous threat to national security turned out to be... somebody who's wrong on the internet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzL3rUfF_wY"War is just like Call of Duty," - British guy who joined ISIS
Watching a GoPro video from actual combat is a very... weird feeling
"War is just like Call of Duty," - British guy who joined ISIS
"The Syrian ISIS fighters keep stealing my slippers," - Also British guy who joined ISIS
https://youtu.be/NXreSAXf1V8
Meanwhile, Russian musical videos look like this. If I didn't know better, I'd assume it is satire. It is not.
https://youtu.be/NXreSAXf1V8
Meanwhile, Russian musical videos look like this. If I didn't know better, I'd assume it is satire. It is not.
...And they still claim to be the anti-fascists.
I was under the impression that Russia was good at this propaganda stuff.
It's not just the audience that's assessed... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65347833)
In a sign of the band's influence, police searching for political subversives have even forced patrons at a bar in Moscow to sing a Lyube song, as proof that they support the government.YOU HAVE FAILED THE VIBE CHECK
Yo @Strongpoint how is the counteroffensive going? I'm getting conflicting sources even in Western media.
"ex-Brit Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon"What a title! (And what a name too, but that's not their fault, or even his. I blame the parents...)
The only way the ICC gets a hold of him is if he gets ousted and not tried and/or killed in Russia.Yeah not happening. If he gets couped by the army, he will get killed. If the opposition gets it shit together and overthrows him... he will also get killed. (I know I would decapitate him personally.) There is no possible timeline where he sees the inside of a courtroom.
Deleted by Twitter. Too genocidal I suppose.Yep. Quite an achievement to get that on Musk's edition of Twitter
Yeah not happening. If he gets couped by the army, he will get killed. If the opposition gets it shit together and overthrows him... he will also get killed. (I know I would decapitate him personally.) There is no possible timeline where he sees the inside of a courtroom.
Allegedly, Russia has a program to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea. They utilized a fleet of disguised vessels carrying underwater surveillance equipment, mapping potential targets for sabotage should a conflict escalate.Submarine rescue vessel SS-750 was photographed in Baltic four days before still-unexplained explosions [..] the ship is capable of carrying out such a sabotage.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive.htmlAnything interesting on that front?
Nice article with a snapshot of the war on the Zaporizhzhia front
The Kremlin has apparently also told state media to avoid mentioning how much of the national budget has been earmarked for the restoration of infrastructure in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, fearing its size could spark public resentment.
I believe everything is desinformation nowonly now :P
Russian propaganda has been predicting dates for the offensive for a while now. With full confidence and so far zero accuracy. A few weeks ago it was the last day of April. I guess they'll get it right eventually.That means little. Obviously Russia seek to prepare for upcoming counteroffensive (previous prediction correlated with forecast that soil will be dry from around mid-April), meanwhile Ukraine seek to obfuscate its plan and if necessarily will change them. If you recall this is pretty much what Russia did at the start of war, when it moved troops to the border and then moved some of them back to make fun of USA\UK predictions and cast them as alarmist cries of wolf.
Heh, this night, a light drone hit Kremlin. No real damage but tells a few things about Russian Air Defense.Its good propaganda, I believe its part of an effort to force Russia to spread its AA resources around.
Heh, this night, a light drone hit Kremlin. No real damage but tells a few things about Russian Air Defense.
Even after more than one year of war I still continue to be amazed by the Russian brazenness when complaining about Ukrainian actions.
How can anybody say with a straight face that Ukraine has no right to defend itself, or to take out legal military targets? How can anybody complain that the aggressor's intended victim decided not to lie down and surrender, and instead fights Russia tooth and nail? I am sure it is not hard to guess what would have happened if Russian soldiers would have gotten their hands on president Zelenskyy, so my heart bleeds for any Russian who complains about attacks on Russia.
Not.
Today, 19 civilians were killed in Kherson by Russian shellings. Media (even some Ukrainian) cares about some nearly missed flag more and even calls that ESCALATION
Only their own brainwashed Zombies, right?
Well, it is a highly symbolic event I believe, whoever staged it. But the sad news (in terms of the media) is, that people killed by Russian shelling is nothing new, while possible Ukrainian drones close to the Kremlin is much more newsworthy. I hate that logic.
Trumpists believe this. European tankies believe it. Various pro-Russians in the Middle East believe it. World has many useful idiots.
One theory I've heard is that it relates the Immortal Regiment, where people march with pictures of their relatives who perished in the Great Patriotic War. If large numbers of people started to join it with pictures of people lost during the current war, it would highlight the monstrous losses Russia's taken.exactly my thought. If its so obvious then there is a good chance that this is exactly what was planned. I hope they can still make it work.
It will forever mystify me how people with access to free and independent media can be firm supporters of people like Putin.
There's a very real possibility that this is a false-flag (no pun intended) incident, or the work of domestic Russian dissidents. Like so many things, we won't know for sure until the war is over at the earliest.Or internal dissent. etc. Regardless Zelensky categorically denied Ukrainian involvement.
Try to replace 'Putin' with the name of major political party you disagree with ;)
Otherwise, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of people in the world have negative view of Putin, however, they majority also have negative view of USA and or do not share its interests, and thus its not that they support Putin they oppose USA more.. in other words the enemy of my enemy.
There's a very real possibility that this is a false-flag (no pun intended) incident, or the work of domestic Russian dissidents. Like so many things, we won't know for sure until the war is over at the earliest.Or internal dissent. etc. Regardless Zelensky categorically denied Ukrainian involvement.
Otherwise, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of people in the world have negative view of Putin, however, they majority also have negative view of USA and or do not share its interests, and thus its not that they support Putin they oppose USA more.. in other words the enemy of my enemy.
It's the way news works. A house being bombed during the blitz wasn't news.
Today, 19 civilians were killed in Kherson by Russian shellings. Media (even some Ukrainian) cares about some nearly missed flag more and even calls that ESCALATION
Well, it is a highly symbolic event I believe, whoever staged it. But the sad news (in terms of the media) is, that people killed by Russian shelling is nothing new, while possible Ukrainian drones close to the Kremlin is much more newsworthy. I hate that logic.
So, Prigozhin released an interesting video: In front of a pile of fresh Wagner corpses he, using the best examples of Russian swearing, yells at Shoigu and Gerasimov demanding shells. CuriousI wonder how much longer until Wagner says fuck you and disbands itself. That, or Wagner says fuck you and starts a military coup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvFrWtLN5Q8 - Here, one with English subtitles (GRAPHIC!!)
Given how many of them have died recently, I figure they'll all die before they can do ether of those things.So, Prigozhin released an interesting video: In front of a pile of fresh Wagner corpses he, using the best examples of Russian swearing, yells at Shoigu and Gerasimov demanding shells. CuriousI wonder how much longer until Wagner says fuck you and disbands itself. That, or Wagner says fuck you and starts a military coup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvFrWtLN5Q8 - Here, one with English subtitles (GRAPHIC!!)
Note that he is outright lying about the lack of shells. Bakhmut (10-20% of what is under Ukrainian control) is pounded with a tremendous amount of munitions and there is no decrease in intensity.Its all politics. I mean its transparent he doesnt really give a shit about his dead prison constripts. He's just jockeying for power with Shoigu. Possibly shifting blame too.
Why is he doing that? I really don't know. Perhaps shifting the blame from himself and getting political points.
Dunno if the Moscow one will happen. Hoping that a bombing happens or a truck gets rammed through the parade or something, would be nice on live TV. Sorry but this government has tainted that day and anything that humiliates it would be good.
Zakhar Prilepin, writer and rapper, is not really pro Putin but he is ultra nationalist and pro invasion of Ukraine. He has criticized the army for not being succesful and has criticized Putin telling him that he needs to step down. So yes, he is an asshole, yes I hope they try again, but no, he's not really pro-Putin.Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.
The bomb could again have come from anyone.
Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.Heh, no. There's also those that are just as bad or worse than Putin. This guy would probably be worse than Putin when put in charge of Russia. No hero material.
Uh, that ain't what I said. I don't want him running Russia, I just want another loud voice calling for Putin to step down. Enemy of my Enemy is my friend.Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.Heh, no. There's also those that are just as bad or worse than Putin. This guy would probably be worse than Putin when put in charge of Russia. No hero material.
Zakhar Prilepin, writer and rapper, is not really pro Putin but he is ultra nationalist and pro invasion of Ukraine. He has criticized the army for not being succesful and has criticized Putin telling him that he needs to step down. So yes, he is an asshole, yes I hope they try again, but no, he's not really pro-Putin.Any connection to Prigozhin ?
The bomb could again have come from anyone.
using incendiary ammunition on civilian infrastructure, irrespective of the presence of civilians, is probably a war crime.
If they vote in someone else in whoever it is they pick to replace Putin is probably going to just be Putin 2: Electric boogaloo.It's more likely if Putin is removed (and most likely it will involve Putin's death) that Russia will implode. Sure, whomever ends up in charge will probably be awful, but they still need to call off the war on account of needing those troops to take control.
Quite a mental image... ButIn Russian they not only are spelled the same (термит) but pronounced the same. I assume it's the same in Ukrainian.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Termite=> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermite
Given the subject, doesn't really deserve a smiley. Whether an innocent typo or an innocent phonetic confusion (from someone far better at English than I am at anything non-English). Yet there is always the vague possbility that ballistic chemical warfare insects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasutitermitinae) are involved, right?
As far as I know, usually, when Russians are using incendiaries, it is 122mm Grad 9M22S Rocket which is magnesium + termiteCould be. Though outside of name recognition there is little difference between the two in the field. Otherwise, I think this hellish scene impress the savage nature of war wage upon Ukraine more so when contrasted with things like the Kremlin "assassination" drone
In Russian they not only are spelled the same (термит) but pronounced the same. I assume it's the same in Ukrainian.Aye, I suspected something as much. Or certainly one of those things that certain non-Anglophones are (perhaps stereotypically) inclined to say[1], whatever their native words/typography might be, and so induce a phonetic 'thinko' rather than a mis-keyed 'typo'. Forgive my mischievousness, but I had actually not long ago been reading about the chemical-shooting ('headcannon (https://xkcd.com/1401/)'!) termites.
Chekov's accent in TOS doesn't really sound very much like a real Russian accent.I know (hence the pun contrasting Pavel to Anton Chekhov). And the L/R thing for that part of the world has been quite the uncompromising (and often deliberately insulting) stereotype, too[1], but I was mixing it up a bit. An amazing number of 'ex-Eastern Bloc' people tend to actually have American accents greater than their residual native one, probably due to being (re)educated by, or in, the US/its media.
But this is obviously very secret information, that I'm only letting you all know in order to win an Internet argument I'm currently having in PMs with Toady, who doesn't even think I have Zelenskyy's wife's phone-number (and second best handbag, but that is another story). I don't think even the US three-letter-agencies know of this, yet, as it hasn't been leaked on Instagram (which I read all of). And clearly you shouldn't let anyone in the Kremlin know, Max, so keep it schtum!
Just waiting for the counteroffensive to start.
Edit: Btw with Russia effectively going on the defensive is counteroffensive is still the right term ?
We are in the preparation stage of the Ukrainian offensive, HIMARSes and drones work hard striking fuel and ammo whenever they can. Small-scale probing attacks are also more common than usual.Indeed, I just hope that people realize that it wont be like the last time. People shouldn't expect magic and glorious ever victorious push. Pushing against mine fields and prepared fortified position would be tough. It's going to take a while and there will be setbacks. The key is to set the conditions for victory before hand try our best to exploit them.
When, If and where the actual push will begin is impossible to tell. This night would be... poetic. Just to add another meaning to the May 9 but it is such an obvious idea that Russians will be ready.
No, Counteroffensive is a method of defense against an offensive exploring their lack of entrenchment, weak flanks, supply issues, etc. It can also be used to plug holes that the enemy has managed to create.
Attacking an entrenched enemy stationary army is just an offensive. It doesn't matter who is the legal owner of the territory.
It isn't about legal ownership, but about why you're attacking. The Battle Of The Bulge was a counteroffensive, because the Germans were launching it in direct response to the US offensive. The fact that the rightful owner of the territory was part of the US offensive is irrelevant. Meanwhile Normandy was a regular offensive because they decided it was time to reopen the Western Front, picked a spot where the Germans were weak, and punched into it.In "direct response" is not the same as "after". Allies were on the offensive, Germans launched a counteroffensive to disrupt the enemy's attack.
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
I imagine that his corpse will have a proud, stern expression upon it as they drag his coffin down the street...Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Do you think they will allow him to watch victorious Ukrainian forces marching on the Red Square?
I doubt there's much they can do to stop him from watching from his place in Hell.Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Do you think they will allow him to watch victorious Ukrainian forces marching on the Red Square?
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.The band should have started playing viva la vida
Looks like the first noticeable counterattack is on Bakhmut's flanks. It would be nice to get Wagner surround and make the battle for Bakhmut even more similar to a scaled-down version of the battle for StalingradI absolutely love the putinbot copium, saying they're just doing a tactical retreat. Just like Kherson xD
The fact that both sides have been so convinced of the need to grind up against each other for Bakhmut (and waaay beyond "well, we thought we could prevail, once, and now we're sinking more good effort after bad) highly suggests a couple of main possibilities (and a few possible alternatives) to me about all sides' future aims on the front. I know what I think is most likely, but I'm not going to say it out loud. (Probably plain wrong. Or, worse, I'd be far too right for comfort.) But it's perhaps born of too much tabletop-campaigning, when I was young. Which I was never actually all that successful in, even if I apparently had the right sort of strategy on occasion.
(Isn't the Storm Shadow an air-launched system? That implies... something. Well, one of several possible somethings, but probably not the naively obvious ones.)
The UK is sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed.
The minister said that Storm Shadows missiles will be provided to Ukraine's military.
Sky News understands that some of the missiles are already in Ukraine - with Mr Wallace saying the projectiles "are now going into or are in the country itself."
Ukraine has long been calling for such weapons, but the US and other countries have been unwilling to supply them in case strikes inside Russia lead to escalation.
Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid. Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.
Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.htmlNoice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
This may have a major impact.
My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid. Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.
For perspective, country populations:Spoiler (click to show/hide)Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
One of the biggest threats to Ukrainian aircraft is apparently Mig-31 Foxhounds firing the new AA-13 Axehead missile, which has a range of possibly as high as 400 kilometers and is one of the few newer Russian weapons that actually works. Shorter range AAMs and SAM systems are also a real threat over the Russian lines. This means that even with long-range cruise missiles, there's severe constraints on what kind of targets can be safely serviced.
Quite. It is a very severe hindrance to combat operations, which is why the few Mig-31s that have gone down are such a big deal.
The only ways I can see it escalating are moving to CBRN or insensate civilian reprisals (As in "Fuck all of you, we're just going to slaughter you en-masse" rather than "Civilian, military, who cares?"). What else are they going to do, war harder?https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.htmlNoice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
This may have a major impact.
Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?
Thankfully, Russian military prowess has deteriorated so much since WWIl that they can't even see a classic pincher...Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.
Are these the armies that ravaged Ukraine during the war?
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.There is even an unconfirmed report that a Belarusian officer fighting for the Ukrainians managed to trick Russian artillery into shelling Russian lines using a captured radio. They seem keen to not just waste ammunition but also the scant few organised units they have left
There are claims that ADM-160_MALD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD) decoy missile is in use in Ukraine. Any other info about or estimate on how useful it would be?Theoretically, multiple uses. Both in decoy mode and (if one of the relevent versions) running its electronics package as an active jammer.
If I believed the Russians capable of strategic thinking, I would be looking for their troop movements elsewhere.It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If so, what value those flanks hold for them? On a defensive such a bulge only increase the front and make them more vulnerable.
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Edit: For Ukrainians it seem like a good move, which exploit Russian vulnerability, secures their position and reestablish control of local roads. Whether that would develop to something else around Bakhmut i unknow atm (maybe they will push kurdiumivka first?)
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Edit2:
I agree with understandingwar assessment of Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric being seriously disturbing to the top leadership of Russia. He is doing so much damage. Also: https://streamable.com/y2cqj2
Reports I'm seeing suggest that it was Russia that shot down the two Russian jets and three Russian helicopters
While we now that Ukraine never engages targets in Russia. It is war between Bryansk People Republic and Belgorod People Republic (for the right to be the only one BPR), I doubt that even Russian can friendly-fire five aircrafts
Turkish election is nothing compare to this changeNo idea what that means. If you're referring to the Ukrainian Peace Plan, it's no different than the proposal at the beginning of the war. If anything, I think it might be broader, with the call for Russian War Criminals to be tried.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
@Lord Shonus, sorry poorly phrased, I meant that my plug for the spy novel story is the outlandish option. Also I still believe that Strongpoint assessment that it is long-range SAM is the most likely.
It show Zelenski as president of Russia..Oh, that would be called foreshadowing, LOL.
Belarussian president Loekasjenko admitted that the Russian aircraft and helicopters were "accidentally shot down" by Belarus. ;D ;DFixed that for you!
What, Lukashenko has got better to be able to make such pronouncements?
Belarussian president Loekasjenko admitted that the Russian aircraft and helicopters were indeed shot downInteresting. Quick google to double check that also suggest that:
The respected Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on Saturday that a Russian raiding party comprising an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an Su-35 fighter and two Mi-8 helicopters had been shot down in an ambush near Klintsy in Russia's Bryansk region.
It said they had been due to attack targets in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, directly over the border.
The Mil Mi-8MTPR-1 Hip-H is a stand-off jamming system that remains outside the range of enemy air defence weapons to grant effective screening for the attacking tactical aircraft or combat helicopter packages as they are penetrating the enemy air defence systemWhich gives credence to long range AA. I heard a rumor that it was another newly imported advanced weapon system.
But I am not sure that his death would be beneficial, it may accelerate the annexation of Belarus by RussiaMore realistically, Luka refused to engage his army in the Ukrainian conflict, despite Russian very untactful insistance.
6 hypersuperubersonic Russian missiles were shot down over Kyiv this night. At least it is what Ukrainian Armed Forces claim
The headline is that '18 out 18 Russian missiles were shot down in Ukraine this night', including: 6 Kinzhal missiles, 9 Kalibr missiles and 3 ballistic missiles total.
That seem a bit too good to be true. Also there is a video claimed to be of said patriot system, showing it expanded its whole magazine (over 15 launches that I counted) and then couple of minutes later it look like it was hit. The Russian headlines suggest it was coordinated attack on the Patriot system and that it was destroyed.
The headline is that '18 out 18 Russian missiles were shot down in Ukraine this night', including: 6 Kinzhal missiles, 9 Kalibr missiles and 3 ballistic missiles total.
That seem a bit too good to be true. Also there is a video claimed to be of said patriot system, showing it expanded its whole magazine (over 15 launches that I counted) and then couple of minutes later it look like it was hit. The Russian headlines suggest it was coordinated attack on the Patriot system and that it was destroyed.
There seem to be some confirmation that the battery was hit.It is denied by the AFU in any case, they say the explosion was caused by a missile falling and causing a fire.
those nuclear capable missiles are supposed to be the panic button in case of conflict with NATOGood point, I haven't consider that. Also speaking off, some
It is very unlikely that Putin based his decision to invade on this one weapons system.Yes and no. The Kinzhals were the official reason why he delayed its invasion for almost a decade. He was always going to attack, but wanted to wait until the end of those missile development to do so. The source is the ex "supreme leader" of the DPR and he was pretty mad when he made that statement (made a couple weeks ago, calling for their use), so make of that what you will.
Well, those guys lied to Putin about a superweapon, directly influencing his decision to start the war... Perhaps, if they were honest, there would be no war.It's more likely they're being prosecuted for being honest about the "superweapons". It was probably threats by Putin that had them verify the weapons when they weren't "perfect".
Prigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
Hey, fellow Europeans reading this thread, did you know that a deadly radioactive cloud is coming to Europe after a Russian missile strike destroyed a stockpile of depleted Uranium shells? Now you know. Russians said so!Sound like the usual Russian falsehood, part of an effort to distract from failures and reversal in Bakhmut with clickbait material.
Btw any thoughts on Russia lifting ban on direct flights to georgia and removal of visas ?
... should make it easier to flee Russia.
Rewarding the local pro-Russian government for help in circumventing sanctions.Not gonna end well. I have Ukraine 2010-2013 flashbacks with a declared course to the West and de-facto closeness with Russia. May end in a similar way.Lets hope so, certainly something to keep track of.
It's starting to feel that this whole thing is gonna end with Russia turning into more China.
According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.
According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.Seem like it, here is the deep state map changes over this period:
Bakhmut is a crucial logistic chokepoint for Russia, mainly. If they can hold enough ground to keep the rail station out of effective artillery range, it gives them pretty much unfettered logistic access to several important target cities.
Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.Why?
Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.I have no idea why you think this. It's now an extremely efficient opening toward conquering that territory.
Edit: btw, on unrelated matter, I just realized that Ukraine rail network is using the broad gauge like Russia.Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge#/media/File%3AWorld_RR_Gauge_Map.agr.png) Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)
That what he said. Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is brokenPrigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge#/media/File%3AWorld_RR_Gauge_Map.agr.png) Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)Yeah I knew it, but somehow I didn't think of it until now; Nice map; and that is what happens when you move from the universal horse ass measurement. (https://www.rosenblumtv.com/2009/07/what-does-a-horses-ass-have-to-do-with-the-space-shuttle/)
HisThat what he said. Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is brokenPrigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403124/
So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?
Trains and trucks can stop. That means men and materiel can now move into Bakhmut, and all the fronts along the rail and roads coming out are now supplied by rail and road. Which tends to make those fronts move forward.True if they can utilize the rail network to Bakhmut, which I am not sure that they can atm. Their game plan was crippled by losses in the east, since then it felt like Russia just moving through inertia relying on brute force. From my reading of the map, the rail line to Bakhmut is essentially the frontline, easily observed and for tens of km is in range of not just HIMARs but even simple mortars..
So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?
I expect Wagner to be rotated and get at least some rest (and the opportunity to spend earned money). Mercenaries were hired to capture the city and they did it.I think that Prigozin had an idea that quick victory would be a political ladder for him. Do you think that Moscow will let him pullout and regroup after all his ranting against the MoD and even grandpa ?
Here's the thing just by being there they're doing tremendous damage to the Russian war effort. The Russian government cannot politically afford armed anti-government militias taking and holding territory. There are other anti-government groups that have been arming themselves this last while and if they see this invasion do well they'll be emboldened. For that and many other reasons, the Russian government can't allow this to have any appearance of success. If they get bogged down they lose. If they ignore it they lose. They're going to have to hit that incursion with overwhelming force and to do that they'll need to pull that force from somewhere. We all know Ukraine has been performing shaping operations and getting all their ducks in a row for a major offensive. This could pull a whole bunch of Russians away from the front.
I don't think this incursion is going to be too successful. I do however think it'll be the prelude to something beautiful.
I wonder if there will be volunteer F-16 pilots\ground crews. Those would help a lot. Especially ground crews.Historic precedent..? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lafayette_Flying_Corps) And plenty of other "foreign volountary legions", before or after, and even on the ground in your current situation.
According to the region's governor, most of the population of Belgorod has fled the region after the attacks on the border post.
It was reported here they've already retreated.That is good to hear, I hope they brought up some goodies. Now rinse and repeat elsewhere?
And that they had support from at least a few tanks and helicoptersAny official sources? This could be the beginning of an interesting new phase.
Any official sources?Nothing reliable in English. Just a local milblogger with good track record. More info should come up in a day or two.
From my understanding this a small raiding party with no support. Do you believe they will fight or Russia need a lot to surround them?Yes, because America really whooped those Viet Cong, and Afghanistan is everyone's bitch...
Edit: I am not sure what their game plan but if they prolong this raid they risk having special forces drop special forces on them.
So are they actually anti-Russia people or is this another damned false flag?
our own version of Bid Laden
our own version of Bid Laden
They're wealthy foreign nobles that have a vested interest in destabilizing your region?
our own version of Bid Laden
They're wealthy foreign nobles that have a vested interest in destabilizing your region?
OK, it is not AS stupid as empowering Bin Laden...
apples and orangesFrom my understanding this a small raiding party with no support. Do you believe they will fight or Russia need a lot to surround them?Yes, because America really whooped those Viet Cong, and Afghanistan is everyone's bitch...
Edit: I am not sure what their game plan but if they prolong this raid they risk having special forces drop special forces on them.
those look like our own version of Bid Laden, someone who will be a problem for Ukraine and the world in the future.Speaking of according to Meduza: Russia's FSB Sent Ex-Islamic State Fighters to Infiltrate Ukraine, Turkey, U.S. (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/russias-fsb-sent-ex-islamic-state-fighters-to-infiltrate-ukraine-turkey-us-meduza-a81152)
Your bets - Will Belgorod rebels capture the base with tactical nukes (artillery shells) on it? Belgorod People's Republic may join the nuclear club.Probably not?
So what is the latest on our raiding party?
I think most Americans also misunderstand the significance of George Washington dying two years after his Presidency ended peacefully, and that most people are ill for a time before they die...
My suspicious is that he was hiding an illness during at least part of his final term. And back then, that could be lethal.I think most Americans also misunderstand the significance of George Washington dying two years after his Presidency ended peacefully, and that most people are ill for a time before they die...
Are you saying Washington got assasinated or are you saying he was hiding a lethal illness during his final term?
It is well documented that George Washington spent most of his life as a very sick man.Yes, there's a famous anecdote regarding his health pertaining to the Newburgh Address in 1783, when he addressed near-mutinous officers of the Continental Army. Supposedly, the sight of his weakness and aging, which he attributed to the effort he'd spent in service of the Revolution, moved them to accept his urging to wait patiently for the Congress to get around to paying them, preventing a likely military coup.
Your bets - Will Belgorod rebels capture the base with tactical nukes (artillery shells) on it? Belgorod People's Republic may join the nuclear club.And then they get there and realize that all the nukes that were supposed to be in there are actually cardboard cut outs.
So what is the latest on our raiding party?
A lot of fog of war and disinformation from both sides, both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom Legion claim that they are still there. Russians, of course, claim that EVERYONE was killed. Russians also presented photos of some captured American-made MRAPs but considering that those are in rather good condition and with no corpses attached, those are suspicious.
In a recent interview, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner lost 20K KIA in the battle for Bakhmut: 10K of core fighters and 10K of convicts. Also, he claimed 50K KIA on the Ukrainian side to make it sound like an epic victory.
It'll be like "War bonds", I suppose. Betting on the investment going good due to theI could see People's Republic of China buying up some of the land, putting their people on the land, then forcing the victor to either negotiate with them or evict them.warspecial military operation not going completely about-face.
The market will be within Russia, probably, where the hope/belief in their legitimacy will be the greatest. Or someone forced to 'do a Musk' and put previously promised moneys where their mouth is ("You do believe in our government, don't you? And you with still a spare billion or two in the banks that we haven't yet 'pursuaded' you to donate. And what would be better than some prime real-estate in a traditionally quite nice area...")
At a long-shot, maybe someone like the Chinese State could be pursuaded to lay claim, if it's handy for (future) use. But that's a dangerous game given how China is effectively "lend-leasing" its way into so many third-world territories, grabbing its B&R system back. Would they consider the opportunity of going straight to (nominal) ownership, with contingency if it turns out to be a reclaimed lemon?
Yeah fairly certain Ukraine could just go "Any land exchanges made while the region was under hostile occupation are null and void" before returning shit to its previous state.Well, things are never quite that simple.
Also what exactly would China stand to gain from such a purchase, other than a shitton of bad blood with Ukraine and bad press around the world. If Russia loses it will be in a position where China doesn't need to cozy up to them or even pretend they're anything other than their bitch at that point.
So the raid in the Belgorod region is officially over. It was a weird one for sure. I don't think that it was a huge success in terms of actual damage to Russian forces but the propaganda value is high and it will likely force Russians to keep more forces on the border.Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.
One thing I really dislike is that they used American MRAPs and lost some of them there. I somehow suspect that the USA never gave permission of using American gear for this kind of operation.
Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.
Known equipment losses are there - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/the-ballad-of-belgorod-listing.html (Oryx is so epic).I am not sure how accurate this list though. Do they do any verification except image comparison and possibly geolocation? The one I do trust is the destroyed vehicles left in front of the building, there is collaborating video of these from before. Not sure about captured vehicles either from video I saw at least on of the groups hiked back on foot to Ukraine.
Starting to look like it'll be down hill for Russia form here.Lets hope so, but its best not to underestimate any enemy, let alone Russia. Despite some very good indicators for Ukraine, I am still uncertain about Ukraine ability to push out Russia certainly in the near term.
Speaking of Lukashenko says Russia Has Begun Moving Nuclear Weapons to Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/25/wagner-group-boss-forces-leaving-bakhmut-yevgeny-prigozhin)Well that certainly doesn't sound good, hopefully it's just some bullshit or cardboard cut outs.
I have a feeling that nuclear plant is gonna be a smoking ruin by the time this is all over.
I'm reasonably sure the "Counteroffensive" is going to be a probing attack that does well enough that it needs more support to maintain momentum.yeah, it will be a Schrodinger's counter-offensive. This time its tougher as there are no Kherson like area where Ukraine have an overwhelming conditions in its favor, with several lines fortifications in each direction and Russia managing to solve its critical shortage of manpower. Likely Ukraine will be focusing on grinding Russian forces capabilities trying to set the conditions for victory in any of their planned venues of advance and attempt to exploit any weakness.
So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.
It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.
So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.
It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.
False flag is not unlikely. Perhaps to dissuade Western nations from providing long range weapons.
I think it is a legit Ukrainian attack. It is of dubious effectiveness (Like those naval drones that fail to do real damage again and again. Last one, most likely, Mark14ed instead of adding to the Russian underwater fleet) but I think it is our attack that will not be publically admitted anytime soon.The recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
The recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Forcing it to return to port is still a win.QuoteThe recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Yes, it returned to Sevastopol with no visible damage. Considering that there was a video of how a drone rammed it, the only logical assumption is that it failed to detonate.
QuoteThe recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Yes, it returned to Sevastopol with no visible damage. Considering that there was a video of how a drone rammed it, the only logical assumption is that it failed to detonate.
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev, however, claimed that Ukraine launched 32 drones of which some targeted the prestigious neighborhood of Rublyovka in Moscow Oblast.[2] A Russian independent outlet claimed that the drone strikes predominantly targeted areas near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and other elite neighborhoods in Moscow Oblast.[3] Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that several buildings in Moscow suffered minor damage, and Russian sources amplified footage of a minor explosion in the Novaya Moskva neighborhood.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that drones flying over Moscow resembled Ukrainian attack drones.[5] Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shooting down drones identified as Ukrainian by OSINT accounts in several different areas of Moscow and Moscow Oblast.[6]Seems more likely that it was an attack on Moscow. Meanwhile fighting continues in Belgorod (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/30/one-killed-several-wounded-after-shelling-on-belgorod-evacuee-shelter-governor-a81335) in what the governor recently described as 'de facto state of war'.
Both those recent actions sound more like things that a group given equipment by Ukraine would do, instead of Ukraine itself.
The fact that Moscow is insisting that it's Ukraine means it's probably partisans. You can tell the nature of things by what Moscow doesn't want to admit.
This feels relevant.MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?
https://i.imgur.com/y4r4Quo.mp4
(I tried to post it using the code for an image but it just disappeared, not sure if there is a better way to do it)
It's what Medvedev does. His role us to spout extreme hyperbolic crap, so that the official Russian stance may seem more moderate and sensible.
According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?*Shrugs*
I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
(Reply too long and meta, PMing instead.)MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?*Shrugs*
[..]
Liberty of Russia and VRC are raiding Belgorod again, now with serious artillery support.
Britain never did anything when Russia's FSB killed someone with poison on British soil.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Britain never did anything when Russia's FSB killed someone with poison on British soil.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
I don't think Russia has the balls to do that.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
It's possible Russia is just preparing for the scenario that their indiscriminate missile/artillery attacks into Ukraine's residential areas accidentally kills a visiting foreign dignitary.I don't think Russia has the balls to do that.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Blinken: ‘A ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he’s seized, and then rest, re-arm, and re-attack — that is not a just and lasting peace. It’s a Potemkin peace.’I can't agree more.
It's fine.Putin's been the dog from that meme the entire war.
Russia, Belgorod: It's fine.
Why? Did Ukraine attempted anything? What would be the effects down stream? Also any chance of surprising advantages up stream?
There were unconfirmed reports that we captured some islands downstream and it must be a pre-planned response to that.When? anything public?
Dams don't typically do that thoughTypically no but https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408
This is a very dangerous escalation, I hope they can save the power plant and as many lives as possible. The only good outcome might be that Russia's allies might see it as a red line.
This is a very dangerous escalation, I hope they can save the power plant and as many lives as possible. The only good outcome might be that Russia's allies might see it as a red line.
Nope. The power Station is gone
Quoting Ukrhydroenergo, our state-owned hydropower company
"Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. As a result of the detonation of the engine room from the inside, the Kakhovka HPP was completely destroyed. The station cannot be restored."
The extent of damage is such that it couldn't be a natural failure caused by neglect or be a result of a Ukrainian strike, multiple sections of the dam are gone.
I live on the black sea coast... Oh no, not Chernobyl again! I don't wanna eat irradiated finduk!
Russians continue to be weird and incompetent with their propaganda; Here's a video supposedly from the dam's destruction from Russian sources (https://twitter.com/i/status/1665948974056873984).If its real, maybe those are mines? Russia have made extensive use of mines around its defensive positions, in recent month some minefields were flooded and strong water flow may have disturbed them causing detonations.
Unfortunately I think destroying the dam is the first step in that. Doesn’t that dam supply water to cool the the plant at zaporzhizhia(sp?)?
lots of misinformation being spread about that currently, varying from the obvious "Russia did it", "Ukraine did it" to apparently a lot of the "dam decided to give out on it's own"
Dams don't typically do that though, just think about how many major dams randomly do that in an average year. Not many, if any.
The timing of it, one day after the offensive has started would be ridiculous. I'm 100% certain this is deliberate misinformation being spammed to the internet.
The only reason dams don't collapse like this routinely is that the dam operators drain excess water via spillways.Over the past however many months there have been reports of water being occasionally released from the dam to keep the water levels downstream high. I don't think they'd forget they can do it just now. Besides, the timing is just too on point to be accidental.
It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Yes, in theory we can't proof that the Russians did it. Who knows, in theory it might have been aliens. Jeez.
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Yes, in theory we can't proof that the Russians did it. Who knows, in theory it might have been aliens. Jeez.
Or just don't care.It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Yeah, people seem to fail to grasp what kind of devastating impact that has.
It also reeks of desperation.I was thinking this. Long term this fucks Russian prospects. Suggests they are panicking.
EDIT:
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
It also reeks of desperation.I was thinking this. Long term this fucks Russian prospects. Suggests they are panicking.
EDIT:
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.In the US, we're a little busy obsessing over the Orange Smoke Clouds of Doom. Our media isn't even really covering the Fires in Canada the size of New Jersey that are generating the smoke.
It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
They've made the land they hope to take less valuable for them if they do take it, but Russia has demonstrated a willingness to be "king of the ashes" before.
10-20% of Ukrainian agriculture won't function for many years.
Interestingly, there was just a report of ammonia pipeline being hit, which is used in agriculture as fertilizer..10-20% of Ukrainian agriculture won't function for many years.
And this will have global implications.
Some personal news - My brother's self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika was damaged beyond repair by a Russian suicide drone yesterday. Luckily the crew wasn't anywhere near.I'm glad to hear your brother is ok, did he get a new flower?
Some personal news - My brother's self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika was damaged beyond repair by a Russian suicide drone yesterday. Luckily the crew wasn't anywhere near.I'm glad to hear your brother is ok, did he get a new flower?
Show how much damage was caused by the dam blowing up?
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive is slowly crawling forward. So far, there have been no major breakthroughs only a methodical relentless push against enemy fortified positions.In this case slow and steady wins the war. Some nice gains in Donetsk region, although reportedly Russia blew two more small dams so it might get slowed down (I suspect not, as Ukraine is moving on the high ground)
I find It hilarious that vatnik became an international meme. I was there, in the early 2010s, when the original Sponge Bob inspired meme was born.
Guess I'm also behind the times as I don't know what a vatnik is.Slang term for a Putin supporter/"z-ombie". The meme originated from a character someone created who was a personified jacket (ватник) who spouted pro-Russian propaganda. iirc
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive is slowly crawling forward. So far, there have been no major breakthroughs only a methodical relentless push against enemy fortified positions.Feels a bit disappointing, but I think that's just in the face of last year's counteroffensive where the Russian frontline completely collapsed.
[...] they reportedly [...] lost a major general.
Adam Delimchanov, right hand of Chechen leader Ramzam Kadyrov has been wounded or killed by a missile strike. Ukrainian forces stumbled upon his convoy and opened fire on it.L rip bozo
Ramzam Kadyrov writes on his Telegram channel that 'he is unable to contact his dear brother Delimchanov'.
Funnily enough, he asks the Ukrainian intelligence services to provide him with details and location of the attack.
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
You won't find any noticeable traces of Soviet culture in modern PolandThe Palace of Culture and Science says hello.
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.I sometimes have the same feelings about being a Republican in America, when I see Trumpers in action. There are plenty of decent moderate Republicans, they just don't get a lot of air time.
A few good books have come from Russia/Russians.Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
A strange take. I can't find anything more bland than Soviet culture and art except what Russia produced between 1991 and now which is a mix of the worst elements of Soviet times and bad copies of Western stuff.
Note that USSR, a huge empire, a superpower with numerous allies and puppets, was unable to contribute to the world's mass culture in a meaningful way. Well, nothing is not exactly correct, there are minor things like Tetris (but is it a Soviet thing or a brilliant idea of one guy?) but there is nothing of the scale of, let's say, Japanese Anime.
You won't find any noticeable traces of Soviet culture in modern Poland or Vietnam or post-colonial Africa or Cuba. Why? Because it was bland and empty.
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
Well that's certainly been influential abroad thoughThere are even some commieblocks in Africa, lol. Many falling apart and without water, but otherwise they look just like the ones here in Siberia.
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
What I really hate is that in the West some 19th-century novels like War And Peace are appreciated.Are they? Sure, there are some intellectuals and pseudo-intellectuals that praise that monument of boredom but I don't think it has any notable place in the Western popular culture. There are no major movies based on it or anything of that kind. Tolstoy is no Dumas and Dostoevsky is no Hugo
There are no major movies based on it or anything of that kind. Tolstoy is no Dumas and Dostoevsky is no HugoOk, so it's not Hollywood, but in major mini-series form (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p039wcdk).... Possibly even Cultural Appropriation, for those that truly find the original
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.You are not Russophobic
joking aside, I do not agree with such sentiments, the idea of destroying books and think that older works should be judged in accordance with their cultural context.It's not even about the content. Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.
Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.How can you despise it if you've never read it?
Then if you hate it so much why not ditch it somewhere like a bus station or something?Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
I can't think of any book (even Mein Campf, Mao's LRB, any version of the Anarchist's Cookbook or the most objectional[1] directory of perversions) that I would so prejudicially deface. If I burn a book, it'll only be because I need fuel. Banishment to some secure backroom of a library, maybe, but you can't actually counter that which has (effectively or actually) undergone total extestential failure. Books are paragraphs, paragraphs are words, words are letters and (give or take the precise alphabet/glyphs, lexicon, grammar and themes in use) all of these are pretty much the same morally neutral building blocks as any other example. The problem is what one does with them, not the things themselves.Nah if I could outright destroy all copies of classic Russian literature, physical or digital, I would. I'd also destroy Mein Kampf, Turner Diaries, Victoria... and so on. Pretty long list. I stopped caring about information preservation long ago. Destroying them isn't even about what is inside, it's about sending a message: I hate this and I want it reduced to smoldering ashes.
If you really can't stand a set of books, just don't read tyem. Or perhaps put them on a special bookshelf, under a special filing system (https://xkcd.com/2791)...
[1] Well, isn't that a loaded term? To some, that'd be Harry Potter (which to me is a sufficiently entertaining read that somehow found a zeitgeist), to others it'd be <insert some opposingly creed>'s Holy Book (to me, they're all meh), to yet others it'd be something like deSade (to which I've never had the pleasure; or the pain!). I'm not even sure I have an example that I could fit here.
Oh I know, that's why I don't hate all of Russian culture. The classics are just hate-provoking for me.Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
I wouldn't demand from anyone to hate Pushkin or Dostoevsky for the war. Just being associated with the idea of Russia is not a conduit for guilt, especially if it's something one cannot choose. Existing in a context doesn't mean something is part and parcel of everything in the context. Each place and time on Earth cannot be consistently made into its own uniform gestalt. And I try to take an approach that errs on the side of compassion.
I am witnessing a lot of people with similar attitudes to KittyTac's. Remember, Ukraine had (had, no has) 17% who self-identified as Russians.I'm not as radical as that guy but yeah. Once I move and get a different citizenship, I'm burning my Russian passport with a blowtorch so I can't easily go back even if I wanted to in the future.
I know a 62-year-old person who has zero, I mean zero Ukrainians among recent ancestors, who never spoke Ukrainian went for total self-derusification, doesn't address Russian without using slurs, learned to speak very decent Ukrainian and refuses to use Russian, had time to volunteer to the front, get wounded (lost something like half of his liver and one kidney) and come back home and broke all contacts with all relatives on the other side of the border. Oh, and if you'll call him a Russian you will be punched in the face. I guarantee you that.
I wouldn't wish anyone to get into a situation where you have to deny your nationality like that. When you actually lose connection with your nation to the point when you don't want to have anything in common with those people. But at least I know that the idea of one can't change the nationality (ethnicity) they were born with is total bullshit.
Because I have a vendetta against the "revered classics". And if I just gave it away then the book would still be readable and I don't want that. I want to vandalize.Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.How can you despise it if you've never read it?Then if you hate it so much why not ditch it somewhere like a bus station or something?Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
No surprise that they're overvaluing everything, as usual. Question is whose pockets was that money going to disappear into. At least it'll be spent on defending someone's freedom now.
I can't think of any book (even Mein Campf, Mao's LRB, any version of the Anarchist's Cookbook or the most objectional[1] directory of perversions) that I would so prejudicially deface. If I burn a book, it'll only be because I need fuel. Banishment to some secure backroom of a library, maybe, but you can't actually counter that which has (effectively or actually) undergone total extestential failure. Books are paragraphs, paragraphs are words, words are letters and (give or take the precise alphabet/glyphs, lexicon, grammar and themes in use) all of these are pretty much the same morally neutral building blocks as any other example. The problem is what one does with them, not the things themselves.Honestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.
If you really can't stand a set of books, just don't read tyem. Or perhaps put them on a special bookshelf, under a special filing system (https://xkcd.com/2791)...
[1] Well, isn't that a loaded term? To some, that'd be Harry Potter (which to me is a sufficiently entertaining read that somehow found a zeitgeist), to others it'd be <insert some opposingly creed>'s Holy Book (to me, they're all meh), to yet others it'd be something like deSade (to which I've never had the pleasure; or the pain!). I'm not even sure I have an example that I could fit here.
Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
No surprise that they're overvaluing everything, as usual. Question is whose pockets was that money going to disappear into. At least it'll be spent on defending someone's freedom now.With the new focus on liability for Burn Pits, you might be onto something.
Yeah it doesn't seem likely, I was responding to Strongpoint.Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Honestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.If anything, that's just another reason. I mean I'm not particularly desirous of "destroying fundamental data", as well, but destroying a copy is a gesture that I don't think I'd make either. Rare copies of old books (or anything not originally rare but actively endangered by such a practice) are indeed a loss to be avoided, but I don't treat that as my moral/practical limit on the issue.
Could understand waaaaaaaaaaay back when, when each book had to be transcribed rather than printed and thus you might actually have the only copy, but we mass produce books to such a stupid extent nowadays that when I was working in a charity shop we had a shed full of books for recycling that just got dumped in there willy-nilly because nobody'd buy them. They're a dime a dozen and so long as society doesn't collapse it'll stay that way.
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
This would be based and make me not move. Lol. As long as our current mindset and old culture is smashed mercilessly.Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Well, would many say in 1985 that USSR will soon collapse into a number of countries with capitalist oligarchy rising to power almost immediately and left ideology disappearing with remaining "left" parties being other a parody or extremely marginal?
And communism was a way more robust ideology than that kitchen sink Russia currently has.
It is Russians we are talking about. Very malleable substance. If their propaganda machine will start saying that every Russian should try homosexual sex, a lot of them will.
Of course, we need some kind of liberals somehow coming to power in Russia, getting control over the propaganda machine. This is a hard part. But if they'll do - It will be a very swift process.
I did it because vandalizing Russian classic literature is funny. I am a defiler and proud. I did things to several other 19th-century books that would break the forum's "no NSFW" rule if I shared them. :PHonestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.If anything, that's just another reason. I mean I'm not particularly desirous of "destroying fundamental data", as well, but destroying a copy is a gesture that I don't think I'd make either. Rare copies of old books (or anything not originally rare but actively endangered by such a practice) are indeed a loss to be avoided, but I don't treat that as my moral/practical limit on the issue.
Could understand waaaaaaaaaaay back when, when each book had to be transcribed rather than printed and thus you might actually have the only copy, but we mass produce books to such a stupid extent nowadays that when I was working in a charity shop we had a shed full of books for recycling that just got dumped in there willy-nilly because nobody'd buy them. They're a dime a dozen and so long as society doesn't collapse it'll stay that way.
Apparently there's been a good market in Iran for the Stars And Stripes flag (extra flammable!), at times. While there are some who would definitely treat that as a mortal insult (and others, similarly patriotic to the US but more philosophical, might even personally treat it more as a sign of positive affirmation of their homeland's status w.r.t. that of Iran), again I'm just bemused by the practice.
And, short of a suitably-scoped Infinity Glove finger-snap, these things are pretty much reduced to a gesture. One that doesn't achieve the stated aim in any realistic manner, so any truly considered motivation for the act can only really be justified as the means to a different ends, an intent that I just cannot relate to right now.
(But fill 'yer boots, those who do.)
Book burning is bad for the climate. At least waste it in a less wasteful way. Like use it for toilet paper. Okay, it will give you a black ass, but that's just a minor inconvenience. As an added bonus, it will clog up the Russian sewer systems, leading to great outbreaks of cholera and dysentery.I didn't burn any. Aside from the "defiled" books: I smashed Oblomov onto the floor until all the pages fell out, chopped War And Peace in half, and poured concentrated sulfuric acid on Anna Karenina. I then chucked the books' remains off a bridge into the river.
Some kinks are truly weirdI admit I have a lot of weird kinks.
I kinda dislike classic literature but I am a diehard science fiction fan so that's par for the courseRoadside Picnic?
Not classic. It's from 1972. Anything before like, 1945, or even 1914, or so is not classic. And besides that's science fiction (and proves sci-fi can have literary merit).I kinda dislike classic literature but I am a diehard science fiction fan so that's par for the courseRoadside Picnic?
An author having literary merit doesn’t (shouldn’t) really mean they’re high-brow.Yeah, also many "classic" books are just... overrated and boring. Historical curiosity at best. And in today's world I want escapism which is why I read (and write) sci-fi. lol
Shakespeare is rightly considered great, but he’s not above fart jokes.
MaxTheFox, KittyTac we found what you think about classical Russian literature, what do you think about classical Russian music, which, unlike the literature, did have some impact on the world mass culture?I don't hate it, I think it's beautiful and I wouldn't want to destroy any of it, a copy or in whole. Helps that I wasn't severely traumatized with it thanks to my asshole father, unlike literature.
(not that I think that guys like Tchaikovsky wrote Russian music, they wrote European music with some, very minor, Russian influences here and there)
Like I know people say they're playing "fractures" to mislead the west but that's basically anti-putin anti-war line if I understand it correctly?
MaxTheFox, KittyTac we found what you think about classical Russian literature, what do you think about classical Russian music, which, unlike the literature, did have some impact on the world mass culture?It's not bad but I'm just not a fan of the classics, like in general. Gimme EDM or metal or whatever.
(not that I think that guys like Tchaikovsky wrote Russian music, they wrote European music with some, very minor, Russian influences here and there)
Sounds like he's trying to skip to the "weasel out of being blamed for this mess" stage a bit early.Also sounds to me like the Wagner-version of our German stab-in-the-back myth, where the after WW1 people would say that the German army was never defeated in the field, but was "betrayed by certain citizens on the home front—especially Jews, revolutionary socialists who fomented strikes and labor unrest,[1] and other republican politicians". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth)
In an interview, a Ukrainian soldier expressed regret over wounding Russian soldiers with his mortar strike. He said killing them would have been better.You seriously believe Russia is going to spend one red rubble on their wounded veterans?!
I disagree. A dead Russian won't be missed by Russia. A crippled quadriplegic will need 24/7 care for the rest of their lives, to feed them and wipe their arse, becoming a huge drain on Russian economy and workforce.
Strategically, in a long term conflict with a country that can replace losses by virtue of large population, it is better to maim than to kill.
Like I know people say they're playing "fractures" to mislead the west but that's basically anti-putin anti-war line if I understand it correctly?Nah.
Many dozens, thousands of lives, of Russian soldiers will be punished," Prigozhin said. "I ask that nobody put up any resistance. Somewhere they will show such resistance, we will consider it a threat and destroy them immediately. This includes any roadblocks standing in our way, any aircraft seen over our heads."Whatever is happening, something is going down at least.
He asked people to stay at home "along the path of our investigation."
Prigozhin said that by criticizing Russian military leadership, he is carrying out a "march of justice" and not a "military coup," alleging that a majority of Russian service members support Wagner.
"Finally, you will make them supply us with ammunition and make them stop using us as cannon fodder," Prigozhin added.
In a series of extraordinary audio messages released late on Friday, Prigozhin appeared to declare war on the Russian military leadership.
“Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” he said.
“Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.
“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.
“I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.”
Maybe out of date, but: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp)I don't believe this populist narrative for one bit. Putin decided to launch a military attack against Ukraine when it became clear to him that he did not have the political levers to bring about regime change there.
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."
i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?
i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?I don't have a doubt he can succed. The army is mobilized on the southern front, there's only the FSB, Rossguardia and riot control in front of him, and Wagner is known to be able to manhandle actual russian military formations in actual conflict. If he can make a dash to the Kremlin before reserves can be gathered, dreams may come true.
Edit : Belarusian dictator Lukashenko flees Minsk in plane
Kadyrov is absolutely silent, I think he is waiting to see who is winning.Honestly I think he's trying to learn how to lace his shoes.
His not blaming Putin is I think is him trying to be populist.Yeah, the boyars are bad but the Tsar is good, the good old russian song and dance.
Wait, what?Luka is reported to have boarded a plane at midnight and to have left the capitale.
MOD just reported that OMON has destroyed 87k wagner fighters, 760 tanks and 100 stormshadowsI never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.
It is a curious question who pays the bills.. is it just Prigozin or does have backers with deep pockets among the Siloviki.Prigozhin has a lot of very rich friends. He's an oligarch, and his business has a lot of clients. Tho it's pretty clear part of their stipend comes from the State - but here's the catch : his clients are interested in taking over the State too.
I never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.Lol Wagner has an airforce, tanks are nothing. They are a professional army. Not on the US level (when they tried to fight the US in a covert operation in Syria they got their butt handed to them) but it is by far the most experienced currently active russian formation, outperforming the VDV by far.
Boy it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the next 24 hours or so.Me rn
Whoever wins, I predict one or both sides will forget they're not in Ukraine anymore and thus continue the indiscriminate attacks on civilians out of sheer force of habit.
Whoever wins, I predict one or both sides will forget they're not in Ukraine anymore and thus continue the indiscriminate attacks on civilians out of sheer force of habit.
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian airforce already targets Wagner's columns together with civilian traffic.
Who knew that having an ~20-30K sized army of mercenaries with their own armor and SAMs and a charismatic leader is not a very wise idea?
Man, this war. It really is like a WWI reenactment with live ammo.The 2030s: "Somehow, Hitler returned."
Macchiavelli is spinning in his gravetbh Niccolo would not have considered Wagner to be mercenaries since they are Russian
Kadyrov declared his support for Putin. Interesting. I expected him to stay silent and wait it out.I think he's still a bit salty of that confrontation and murder attempt of his BROTHER Adam by Utkin and pal.
Macchiavelli is spinning in his gravetbh Niccolo would not have considered Wagner to be mercenaries since they are RussianKadyrov declared his support for Putin. Interesting. I expected him to stay silent and wait it out.I think he's still a bit salty of that confrontation and murder attempt of his BROTHER Adam by Utkin and pal.
Also expecting anything smart from Kadyrov is a receipe for disapointment
I don't expect smart, I expect basic survival instincts.Dude doesn't have object permanance yet, crisis assessment might aswell be 4 dimension geometry for him.
Who would win*Guy who was a kiddy book author (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wagner-head-prigozhins-past-life-as-a-childrens-author-and-illustrator-a81358)
500 IQ geopolitical duginism mysticism despot
or
Guy who worked in customer service
I'm kind of disappointed he didn't care about his image enough to stay, perhaps until it was just a bit too late and he could be shot down.When your arch-rival stayed when his capital was shelled to rubble and you flee from some tanks it really isn't doing wonders for your strongman image.
*Guy who was a kiddy book author (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wagner-head-prigozhins-past-life-as-a-childrens-author-and-illustrator-a81358)To corroborate the jet here is Reuters reporting this is in fact his jet (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-germany-putin-flight-idUKKBN19S2UL)
Anyhow!
BREAKING:
Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.
Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592)
And yeah we lost the war. gg wp
It's funnier in hindsight realising Prigozhin tried to give an olive branch to Putin and say it was all Shoigu and the defence ministry, but Putin didn't take it. Now the die are cast and the Rubicon (Oka river in this case) is crossed
I am a bit surprised Putin didn't grab at the chance to scapegoat someone else and end the war.
The leader of Wagner mercenaries spoke with Lukashenko and reportedly agreed to stop the advance of all Wagner units in Russia and to make further steps to de-escalate the situation, as long as the group receives safety guarantees.
Oh... Damn... I thought Prigozhin is smarter. Safety guarantees...
That is the single stupidest thing he could possibly do in this situation.
Wonder who'll replace Prigozhin after he has an unfortunate date with a window.
What the hell was thatContract renegotiations.
What the hell was thatRussian popular demonstration done right (note that anti riot violence decreases with the number of IFV you can align in front of them)
Wonder who'll replace Prigozhin after he has an unfortunate date with a window.After some thought this really isn't as stupid as it appears, and its entirely possible that this outcome was his goal all along.
It took a while to figure it out, but the resolution seems to be Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, hired Wagner to garrison his own country. We'll see if Wagner decides that Belarus is actually a bit bigger than it was yesterday.Hiring a PMC able to disarm your national military and is led by someone more popular than you are... not a smart move, Despotato
Blergh. I hope any Russians that oppose the coup will die of horrible cancer.What? Prigozhin would be worse than Putin if he succeeded. This is why we were hoping for this to drag out and for rebels to show up sometime.
What the hell was that
Kleptocracy.What the hell was that
This looks weird if you treat Russia as a country. Treat as a big criminal gang. Then such types of inner struggle will look far more logical.
Not sure if he'd be worse, but this was a case of one neofascist trying to overthrow another neofascist. He certainly wouldn't be any better.He is... marginally more competent at both military matters and statecraft. iirc
He backed down. But this really, really reminds me of Kornilov's coup attempt in 1917, which kind of was... a catalyst for you-know-what.
Well damn I was hoping thoseYou're not the only one. And some other people who did (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672898587414482944) are extremely pissed because they deserted their units, shown their faces and published their support for the mutiny.wankersWagner guys would do something.
Putin is going to reassert his power.He will suddenly be found dead from two gunshot wounds to the back of the head. Cause of death: suicide.
Prigozhin dies within the week?
'the FSB kills 13 pilots, downs 8 aircrafts, sabotage major highways, have Putin flee Moscow in an emergency to own NATO'
Perhaps it was just a ploy to give the world something to laugh at and make Putin look...weak?"Appear smart when you are really retarded, and appear retarded when you are really smart" - Pu Tin, the art of the special military operation
There's no possible gain for either side of this dispute faking it. The most likely explanation is that this is a legitimate coup attempt in which neither side had confidence in victory.
The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.
The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.
What if Prigozhin backing down is just a juke, and he's planning something under the table?
According to the Telegraph, one of the reasons Wagner backed down was because their leader's families were being threatened by the FSB.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/
Honestly, the way I read it, Prigozhin wanted to stay independent. But not just recently, like over the past ten years or something.Prigozhin is a siloviki who considers himself to be on the same level as or above the MoD and feels insulted when he receives orders. This is fine usually since his job is mostly doing wetwork in the third world, but when working alongside regular army this is chronically creating clashes. This is exacerbated by the fact his forces got wasted in a stupid engagement for prop reasons in Bakhmut and by other factors, such as Wagner absorbing MoD forces and vice versa.
He knew that if this military company was folded in, he would be on the chopping block.
send them doing bayonet charges to test ukrainian lines or man trenches that were already filled with the corpses of previous russian squads (according to PoWs).Didn't know that Russia had devolved to using WW1 tactics.
That last part isn't true from what I can see. A lot of Wagnerites who followed him on this little mess feel intensely betrayed.Yeah no shit. Storm Z published support video where they put their faces and names, which brand them as criminals. And there was the incident of actual prison riots in support of Wagner from prisonners betting on their success. Yeah they did feel betrayed and they did feel multiple hits from blunt items too.
In other news Ukraine has established a foothold left of the Dnipr and starts to advance toward Crimea.I heard about it a few days ago, but let see if it holds, this isn't the first attempt and logistics operation across the rivers are tough..
Given as coups normally end with victory or a bullet in the head he's won.
He's now the man who would be czar.
Sat in exile with a loyal army.
I am not sure about the loyal army bit. Mercs are not very loyal by definition AND Prigozhin chickened out in the last moment pissing a lot of ordinary Wagner fighters with more ideological motivation.In Ukraine Wagner had to recruit en mass from the bottom of the barrel, prior to that it was essentially Russian tool of influence built on a core of ideological Russia ex special force. Note that recently Prigozin said they opened recruitment centers all across Russia (reportedly some in schools) looking for young people preferably involved in sports to build a more ideological force.
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.Well no. When the riots were occuring, we were very much focused on the enthousiasm they generated. Maybe you didn't follow the story very closely but people were expecting and preparing a change of regime in Moscow. In Rostov, people were clapping at and hailing Wagner as they disarmed the police and the local military. When the police came back to Rostov, they were greeted with stones and insults.
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
I need no Western Media. I can see the impact in the Russian segment of Internet. I also know the "moral code" of Russian convicts well enough to know that what Prigozhin did is despised in those circles. And no, not only the recent recruits care about this code. Prigozhin is a criminal who lives by that code to some degree(at least pretends to), all of Wagner is built on that code.
General Surovikin is arrested for treason. This scum is covered in Syrian and Ukrainian blood from tip to toe. I hope he'll enjoy Russian prison, he deserves it way more than Hague.
Edit: actually unconfirmed.
According to CNN, Wagner is going to be disbanded and turn their hardware over to Russia.HA
I doubt the Wager guys are just gonna give up their guns, because if they do I have a feeling their next mission will be a bayonet charge.
Lets hope not. And for those not keep track according to Ukraine, Russia is reducing its presence at nuclear plant..
The worst part, I see no reason for Russians to restrain themselves, more damage to Ukraine and Europe = better for them. All they need to do is to wait until the winds will go West.
Counter-argument: destroying a NPP and contaminating Europe will bring the entire world together to punish Russia.
They will intentionally destroy the NPP and claim that Ukraine did it. Just as they have done with the dam and faced no consequences whatsoever
Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.
That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.
Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.
That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.
Destroying Kakhovka Dam is not "destroying bridges". It is an act of ecocide far more damaging than a few tactical nukes and the way how it is downplayed in the West is exactly what scares me.
Let's be real Chernobyl catastrophe wasn't that big of a deal on a planetary or even European scale. 10X Chernobyl won't be that big of a deal either. No, knowing how radiophobic most of Europe is (hello Germany), there will be entertaining panic but the real damage will be confined to Ukraine and, maybe, the Black Sea
Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
I'm sure the signatories would still consider their use to be a war crime. But at any rate, it's a clear escalation of weapons being provided.Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
I'm pretty sure this isn't true. There's a separate international treaty, the convention on cluster munitions, which prohibits it's signatories from making/using them, but neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories of that.
I'm sure the signatories would still consider their use to be a war crime. But at any rate, it's a clear escalation of weapons being provided.
A couple articles from Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law)
I think Ukraine getting Cluster Munitions from the US, and tying that into a reaction to Russia destroying the Dam, is understated.
Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
Russia is no doubt aware of this. This indeed opens up the possibility that, if Russia does anything to the Nuclear Power Plant that spreads large amounts of radiation, then some lesser-known Weapon of Mass Destruction from the US Armory could be donated to Ukraine.
EDIT: Meanwhile, the USA is contemplating committing war crimes, by supplying Ukraine with internatially banned cluster bomb ammo, to drive the Russians from their trenches and fortified positions. (Cluster munitions are banned, because using them means that 20 years from now, toddlers playing in the sand will still get blown to shreds by the remnants of those fuckers. That shit is worse than anti personell landmines).
EDIT: Meanwhile, the USA is contemplating committing war crimes, by supplying Ukraine with internatially banned cluster bomb ammo, to drive the Russians from their trenches and fortified positions. (Cluster munitions are banned, because using them means that 20 years from now, toddlers playing in the sand will still get blown to shreds by the remnants of those fuckers. That shit is worse than anti personell landmines).IIRC it's also because they're imprecise so any use on positions near civilians can very easily result in civilian casualties.
Cluster Munitions is as legal as Russian incendiary weapons. And can be very useful against entrenched forces.You cannot compare incendiary weapons (even white phosporus) with cluster munitions. White phosporus and napalm are horrible, but they are done burning within a few hours / days.
btw according to some definition of cluster munition, Urkaine is already using them i.e. the "mine shells" (whatever they called), that are used during engagements to mine access roads behind enemy lines to cutoff Russian counter-attacks/reinforcements
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.
I dunno man, we don't have things like a Geneva convention and treaties to ban cluster munitions and anti personell mines for no reason.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Except of course, for the Ukrainans asking for cluster munitions?
To clarify, you think that the command structure of the Ukrainian military and the ranking relevant Ukrainian politicians are insane?Luckily, no. Just the one or two idiots that thought it a good idea to ask for cluster munitions.
No, I think there's a very fraught but very sane calculation going on here about the long term costs of cluster munitions and the short term costs of not using them. And I think your dismissal of that calculation as insane and barbaric comes from a very overly comfortable place where you know that neither you nor your loved ones are in danger either way.If this conflict escalates, I will be very much in danger, living within 100% lethal range of even a small nuke on a strategically very important NATO airport, not to mention the close proximity of the military base where the Netherlands 'totally does not store US nukes until it was admitted by government that we actualy *do* have nukes there'.
To clarify, you think that the command structure of the Ukrainian military and the ranking relevant Ukrainian politicians are insane?Luckily, no. Just the one or two idiots that thought it a good idea to ask for cluster munitions.
I can because the legality of these ammunition is the same.Cluster Munitions is as legal as Russian incendiary weapons. And can be very useful against entrenched forces.You cannot compare incendiary weapons (even white phosporus) with cluster munitions. White phosporus and napalm are horrible, but they are done burning within a few hours / days.
btw according to some definition of cluster munition, Urkaine is already using them i.e. the "mine shells" (whatever they called), that are used during engagements to mine access roads behind enemy lines to cutoff Russian counter-attacks/reinforcements
Cluster munitions will keep killing innocent civilians for decades if not centuries.
I would be less outraged at using nerve gas against trenches than I would be outraged about using cluster munitions on trenches.
(was nuking Japan fine?).No, it was barbaric and insane (not to mention strategically unnescessary, since Japan was already defeated and terrified by carpet fire bombing towns and villages), although the knowledge of how bad the atomic bomb was, was less wide spread than current day knowledge about how bad cluster munitions are for future generations. Can't compare them with AT mines, for AT mines are both less numerous, and much more detectable ('hey a rusty piece of iron' (unexploded cluster munitions) vs 'Dude!!!! That looks like a mine!' (for the few AT mines left post war).
I am however a descendant of holocaust survivors. I know the insanity of war and mass destruction by authoritarian regimes. I have every reason to want Russia to be defeated.
Can't compare them with AT mines, for AT mines are both less numerous, and much more detectable ('hey a rusty piece of iron' (unexploded cluster munitions) vs 'Dude!!!! That looks like a mine!' (for the few AT mines left post war).The simple fact is that AT mines are certain to kill many innocent civilians for decades. Your argument is one of proportionality, that they are less lethal hence you think its fine. So how do you draw that line between barbaric and insane vs meh? I think its important to recall why did we drew the line and why and think on whether this applies here.
[...] not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea.Well, Afghanistan signed/rattified/fully joined the CoCM, actually. Ironically whilst under the US-backed admnistration, but then that was maybe still a high-water mark for international responsibility, compared with immediately prior and since.
Except of course, for the Ukrainans asking for cluster munitions?
Fair enough, let me rephrase.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any *sane* Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
Let's just say.. Public opionion is with Ukraine in the West European world. Doing things like asking for cluster munitions is not helping that cause. Ask for anything. Ask for jet fighters, ask for long range missiles, ask for, helll, even ask for MOABs. Just don't ask for nukes, chemical weapons, biological weapons, or cluster munitions. The population here does not like that.
Let's just say that over here, they are banned and viewed as a great evil. One of our biggest banks was almost destroyed when people quit their accounts en masse, because they invested some of their funds in cluster munitions.Nah as long as my country loses and is buttfucked as hard as possible it's justified.
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.
I just draw a line at the use of cluster munitions, and other weapons deemed inhumane by treaties and conventions.My point is that line is arbitrary, that was shaped by interests and circumstances as Criptfeind noted.
If I didn't we could all just as well say fuck all, become Russian right now and have it done with.
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.Sweet goodness, what the hell are these people smoking? That's a hell of a hot take for somebody to actually, seriously believe. I understand the US isn't perfect but this... I'm struggling to figure out if I should be furious or laughing my head off.
@Madman: I thought you weren't going to continue the cluster debate. That would imply that you'd put all your comments on it under the spoiler, and you wouldn't be responding to other people's comments on cluster munitions.
But we seem to be de-escalating.
I just took that whole thing as martinuzz acting all morally superior up there on his high horse in country unaffected by the war.Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.Sweet goodness, what the hell are these people smoking? That's a hell of a hot take for somebody to actually, seriously believe. I understand the US isn't perfect but this... I'm struggling to figure out if I should be furious or laughing my head off.
And even past that the incredible nonsense of regarding cluster munitions as being on the same level as NBC weapons is just....so far beyond the pale. This is nonsense to the Nth degree. Radiation, biological attacks, on the same level as a weapon that's just "more small bombs"? The perspective of what makes a war crime a war crime is just...missing there.
won't make a damn bit of difference to public support.Yeah this happens with every new announcement of means, usually its forgotten with the month.
Main reason that specific cluster bombs were banned its indiscriminate nature coupled with high dud rate, by that logic your run of the mill improvised explosive device (IED) activated by Nokia phone used by terrorist is more "humane" than many things used by the "good guys" in Europe before that.
And I imagine it's the older, more dud prone munitions that are being donated. Although that is just idle speculation.Main reason that specific cluster bombs were banned its indiscriminate nature coupled with high dud rate, by that logic your run of the mill improvised explosive device (IED) activated by Nokia phone used by terrorist is more "humane" than many things used by the "good guys" in Europe before that.
It is entirely the dud rate (the wide area of effect just puts the onus on the user to aim them right, it wasn't a major factor in the ban - a lot of the "alternative warhead" programs like the tungsten shot used by some GMLRS rounds are intended to try regaining the area-effect lost by decommissioning bomblets), which is unavoidable. Not only are there flaws in any manufacturing process, an impact-fuzed bomblet has to be insensitive enough to not detonate just from the buffeting of air on the way down. And the impact of hitting dirt isn't that much more severe than the effects of aerial turbulence. Especially when the dirt it is hitting is already being shaken by hundreds of other explosions.
Wagner apparently isn't just gonna go away.
https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider (https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider)
Seeing some claims that Prigozhin is becoming Unpersoned by Russian state media.Russian state media has been recruited to preform the burning at the stake. But keep in mind that he is still alive.. the reason for it is likely because he wasn't acting alone, there are influential people behind him, same reason the outcast strelkov can talk so freely.
That's gonna be a helluva job after the war, finding back all those children. I guess the only way is mandatory genetic testing for all Russian children and parents, to see if they match, and if not, find out if they still have familiy in Ukraine and bring them back.
Demographically, Russia has already won this war with a huge score. It lost few 100K of men of various ages, most of which were capable of producing little to no GDP (or were outright antisocial elements) and got a huge amount of children to brainwash to mitigate its low birthratesIf so then it would be a huge strategic win, but I am not sure that it is. Certainly Russia is facing a population-decline, exacerbated by many young men dying on the front lines (weighted toward poorer minorities) and brain drain with many educated and well off choosing to emigrate. However, I doubt that Ukrainian kids will be sufficient to reverse that trend and I have misgiving about attempting at brainwashing not coming to bite you in the ass. We are talking about adopted kids with access to internet, many of whom are likely young adults, and or aren't likely to feel accepted in Russian society.
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint. As if there was no pro-Russian sentiment in the occupied territories.
They are failing to brainwash native Russian youth, a lot of teens and 20-ish people are against the war (because they spend time on Western internet), why would Ukrainian children be any easier to brainwash?By brainwashing I mean not raising in a dominant Russian ideology, I mean erasing national identity. I fail to see how children younger than 7 can keep anything but some distant traumatic memories. Even for preteens it isn't that easy.
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint. [..] Because those aren't growing up to want Ukrainian passports, internet access or notTrue, but then your double booking them along with those who choose to take passports. Also worth noting that Russia occupation authorities pressure people to take Russian passports by setting them as perquisite to gain access to basic public services, which is rather effective for families with younger kids.
Fair enough. This country is fucked up.QuoteThey are failing to brainwash native Russian youth, a lot of teens and 20-ish people are against the war (because they spend time on Western internet), why would Ukrainian children be any easier to brainwash?By brainwashing I mean not raising in a dominant Russian ideology, I mean erasing national identity. I fail to see how children younger than 7 can keep anything but some distant traumatic memories. Even for preteens it isn't that easy.
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sickThere's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is. If not outright kidnapped then kept indefinitely after they were supposed to be home. Do you actually think these Russians are running some sort of usual summer camp?
https://youtu.be/RNAAC1kX5kE
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sick
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is.You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k. The former is Ukraine's government's number for those they consider illegally deported. The latter is the number Moscow recently said they're hosting. You can see the disjoint here, right? The 700k would include all the nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia.
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sickThere's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is. If not outright kidnapped then kept indefinitely after they were supposed to be home. Do you actually think these Russians are running some sort of usual summer camp?
https://youtu.be/RNAAC1kX5kE
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is.You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k. The former is Ukraine's government's number for those they consider illegally deported. The latter is the number Moscow recently said they're hosting. You can see the disjoint here, right? The 700k would include all the nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia.
So, in the context of those numbers, taken at face value - no, that is almost entirely exactly not what it is.
I'm not saying it's 'just' for that reason. Neither have I said people in the east of Ukraine all wanted to be part of Russia. Don't be constructing strawmen here.
nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia. So, in the context of those numbers, taken at face value - no, that is almost entirely exactly not what it is.
The former is Ukraine's number they gave to the documentary maker well over half a year ago.
You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k.
Can't compare the two they are from different timestamps.Jesus, martinuzz. You can't compare them because they're not talking about the same thing. Was my point. If the 700k were the new number published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration, then you could say these were stolen, because that's what the concerned party would be claiming. As is, 700k is literally just a number, that you don't know what goes into. It could be counting anything or nothing, and there's plenty other children to count than only those illegally deported. It could have been made up on the spot even. Which is why you cant conflate it with the other number.
Should I be getting iodine stocked?
Wonder if this means we need to go to the fallout shelters or should we wait a few days?
The hysteria around cluster munitions that are about to be provided to Ukraine disgusts me so much. It is like a religious behavior - our holy texts say that cluster munitions are bad and we'll ignore all circumstances and just scream how bad it is hinting that Ukraine is just as evil as RussiaSome people can't see past their limited world views, so they think everything that doesn't fit into it must be bad.
With that said, I don't really like that US is starting to seemingly get desperate and doing russian-like tactics by sending ukraine the same weapons pretty much russia usesYep! Bows and arrows would be a better, eco-friendly choice. And Russia doesn't use those!
So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
The hysteria around cluster munitions that are about to be provided to Ukraine disgusts me so much. It is like a religious behavior - our holy texts say that cluster munitions are bad and we'll ignore all circumstances and just scream how bad it is hinting that Ukraine is just as evil as RussiaReminds me of the Ukrainian defence minister complaining about their German partners willing to give them medical equipment to save those being shot but have moral qualms about helping them stop getting shot
Makes me wonder if they're gonna preserve the corpse and make it into a puppet they can make dance around.So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
Is the Ukrainian offensive succeeding? Or has it been rebuffed by Russia?
The Russian Army and Auxillaries are called Zombies for a reason. You don't get to leave just because you're dead.Makes me wonder if they're gonna preserve the corpse and make it into a puppet they can make dance around.So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
Erdogan agreed to let Sweden join NATO. He will now take it to Turkish parliament.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66160319
There are unconfirmed reports (mostly from Russian Telegram channels) that a captain of a Russian submarine was shot dead during his morning jog. That submarine fired cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities.L rip bozo
I so want it to be true and I so want it to be our guys who will work in Mossad style all over Russia, bringing justice directly to those who deserve it. The list is freaking long. I didn't even want many dead. I want just enough to make those naval officers, those combat pilots, those ballistic missile operators and others live in constant fear.
Related: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66154909.amp (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66154909.amp)It's so much easier to make your puppets dance when they're dead and can't resist or talk back.
Russia claims Wagner boss met with Putin and gave Putin his full support. Yeah, they're using his dead body to bolster their position.
I have heard similar stories on the Russian army in general, being an actual rape culture, where forced sex is used routinely as a mean to enforce hierarchies. Although I initially dismissed that as war propaganda, I did also encountered actual russians who went to great lenght that system. "It's not gay if neither parties enjoy it" may be one of the sentences that convinced me that Russia as a country should be dismantled.
It comes up in the worst parts of male dominated spaces (or, more generally, cultures which encourage rape or dubious consent on some level... which is unfortunately most of them :-\)I've been in and out male segregated spaces since 2014 and that is not my experience at all. If anything, these groups tend to be much healthier than mixed groups - but mileage may vary. Men usually stop thinking with their bottom brain when women are out, rather than the opposite.
* I could swear I've actually seen some kind of psychology studies that even sorta' support the sentiment, if you squint real hard.Yeah, it's the MSM designation - Men who have sex with men. Differentiating the activity from sexual attraction or identity.
Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov got Storm Shadowed in occupied Berdyansk. We had no dead Russian generals for quite some time.
In November 2010, the Investigative Committee of Russia charged Tsokov with committing fraud and abuse of power during his period in command of the 228th Regiment. The case involved a deal in which he illegally promised eleven conscripts early demobilization in return for signing service contracts, then embezzled 80,000 rubles from the soldiers' contract signing bonuses.
This case did not affect his career (LOL) and in 2011 Tsokov was transferred to serve as chief of staff and deputy commander of the 33rd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, based at Maykop.
Russian Colonel Alexander Denisov - in charge of providing technical support for the armored vehicles of the Russian Southern Military District - was arrested in March and charged with stealing seven V-92S2 engines from T-90 battle tanks entrusted to his care, according to Moscow’s ‘Kommersant’ newspaper.At this rate Ukraine should probably avoid targeting General Oligarskies and Major Kleptovskies
Commentators have been reporting for decades that corruption was endemic within its defense industrial sector and armed forces, at every level from the Kremlin down to the lowliest foot soldier.
A 2005 report by the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment quoted reports from the Russian Audit Chamber Chairman that in the pre-Putin days as much as 21 percent of the military budget was lost, mainly by the theft of equipment. After Putin took over it was estimated that as much as 50 percent of the funds allocated to Russia’s Defense budget was simply stolen.
Ruslan Pukhov of the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology gave the example that in 2004 Russian foreign defense sales raised approximately $5.5 billion of which, he estimated less than 20 percent made its way back into the budget.
Notable cases of Russian corruption were seen throughout the 1990s, including the Russian general dismissed for selling UN fuel while deployed to Kosovo and reports of Russian soldiers deployed to Chechnya selling their weapons to Chechen fighters.
Russian major general says he was dismissed after reporting on army problems (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411082/)The General that just died was in the same unit.
Heh, more of this, please.
Russian major general says he was dismissed after reporting on army problems (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411082/)I reas that half asleep and misread dismissed as circumcised
Heh, more of this, please.
They have been running out of money for over a year now. They've been using closed markets and other tricks to artificially inflate the ruble and hide the problem, but they're running out of tricks.
In related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
They really haveIn related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
It's like they've forgotten the faces of their fathers.They really haveIn related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
Extreme Right sees more solidarity with Russia than with their own country. They're also funded by Russia...
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?Not really about reinforcements, more important for disrupting Russian ability to resupply its own forces with ammunition/shells/barrels/water/food/fuel and all the other usual gubbins needed to sustain military action. The Crimean bridge is vitally important to disrupt as much as possible because trucks carrying supplies to the Crimean peninsula can then offload their supplies to Crimean supply depots. These depots can then transport supplies to Melitopol/Zaporozhia/Mariupol through the railway bridge on the Syvash (a vast shallow-water area which is a logistic nightmare to traverse) which the Ukrainians have also been sabotaging with missiles and saboteurs.
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?This forces Russia to use railway lines on the Rostov-Donetsk axis (which are in range of Ukrainian artillery), roads (which have lower transport volumes or have to take wide detours to avoid artillery/drone fire) or transport by port in Mariupol or Berdyansk (vulnerable adverse weather conditions and to port strikes, which the Ukrainians have also been conducting).
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
Measures are being taken to restore the situation. I ask residents and guests of the peninsula to refrain from traveling through the Crimean bridge and, for security reasons, choose an alternative land route through new regions.
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge.The bridge has more than strategic value. It's a wargoal. It is has high as your scale will allows for.
It's one thing to say Crimea needs water for its agriculture and industry, another to insist that people will start dying of thirst. It ain't a bloody desert.
It's one thing to say Crimea needs water for its agriculture and industry, another to insist that people will start dying of thirst. It ain't a bloody desert.But it's Russian-occupied.
The water problem in Crimea is very exaggerated, local sources are enough to cover basic drinking water needs. Agriculture and industry will suffer as they did during 2014-2022 but people won't start dying of thirst.
It is also a game that two can play. Ukraine proved that we have rather successful naval drones. They managed to damage the Kerch Bridge, a rather well-protected target.
What if some "Bermudian" tanker carrying Russian oil will mysteriously go boom?
It is also a game that two can play. Ukraine proved that we have rather successful naval drones. They managed to damage the Kerch Bridge, a rather well-protected target.If Ukraine starts destroying vessels under foreign flags you lose. There's no way it doesn't end international support. Russia is playing with nuclear fire by suggesting that they will destroy any vessel making for Ukrainian ports; one shot and they're at war with NATO. There's not a snowball's chance in hell that a nation lets such a provocation go unanswered because doing so would leave EVERY SINGLE ONE of their ships at great risk.
What if some "Bermudian" tanker carrying Russian oil will mysteriously go boom?
Russia announced it will consider all ships sailing in the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will as carriers of military cargo from July 20th onwards.Anyone flying over or sailing nearby a warzone should take heed that objects on radar may look like wartime targets; it's more unusual to keep commercial shipping open between two belligerents and their trading partners than it is to just keep this blockade. If this was like China trying to claim the SCS and establish illegal control over open waters during peacetime there might be more point in complaining, but as it is the illegality of Russian actions is moot when this is all in the context of an already illegal war. Despite the Russian government maintaining that this isn't a war, this is fairly standard stuff for a war. It may not be in Russia's strategic interest as like you say, shooting a 3rd party nation's ship is politically disastrous, but look at the Falklands war - another one of those wars that never was openly declared, where the UK warned any ship within a certain radius of the Falklands would potentially be considered a combatant vessel. Noticeabley, even Ukraine is now suggesting they will retaliate with the same measures:
Will Russia dare to attack non-Ukrainian civilian ships? I think it will.
Will the world swallow what is essentially an act of piracy? Yeah, it will. I am 99.9% sure of that.
The defence ministry in Kyiv issued a statement saying that from midnight on Thursday, all shipping plying Russian-held ports “may be considered by Ukraine as such carrying military cargo with all the associated risks”. The announcement mirrored a threat from Moscow on Wednesday against all ships using Ukrainian ports.While we haven't seen a war involving commerce raiding since WWII, we have seen three blockades in modern times. UK-Argentina, Falklands war and Iran-Iraq Gulf War, as well as the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar in 2017. In the former two both wars never saw an official declaration of any blockade, but did see this declaration of an "exclusion zone" where civilian ships were warned they could be mistaken for military ships, but it is in practice the same as a blockade. In terms of precedence, the Russians and Ukrainians are in the clear here
“The fate of the cruiser Moskva proves that the defence forces of Ukraine have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea,” the ministry said, in a reference to the sinking of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet last year.
“Ukrainian-made maritime drones are capable of destroying stationary and moving targets anywhere in the Black Sea,” a Ukrainian interior ministry adviser, Anton Gerashchenko, said on Twitter.
Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.Indeed he should have gone to the Hague. Free Playstation in your prison cell, play chess with Milosevic, Mladic and other mini-Hitlers all day, or at least with those that didn't die and decompose in their cells yet. Great times.
Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.
Don't worry bros Putin is stepping up to fill the shitpost void (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/any-polish-aggression-on-belarus-is-attack-on-russia-putin-says) by claiming Poland will invade Belarus and Ukraine to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/top-russian-official-says-poland-wants-to-seize-parts-of-ukraine)Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.The war became 20% more boring... What will I do without his legendary shitposts ? The man who very publicly told Putin to "Shut up, just shut up" will be missed after his unforseen prison suicide.
“It is well known that they also dream of the Belarusian lands,” he said, also without providing any evidence.Source: i made it the fuck up
but also a cereal killer."Hello, is that The Hague? I'd like to report a joke-crime."...thatImayhavemademyself,justdidn'tonthisoccasion
Don't worry bros Putin is stepping up to fill the shitpost void (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/any-polish-aggression-on-belarus-is-attack-on-russia-putin-says) by claiming Poland will invade Belarus and Ukraine to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/top-russian-official-says-poland-wants-to-seize-parts-of-ukraine)This isn't ramping shit up. The narrative has been in play since day one of the invasion, if not earlier. It's 'well known' >in Russia<, because the propaganda has been hammering it in for so long that everyone has heard it by now.
I guess Russia is either preparing for a long war (when those kids turn 18, 6 to 8 years from now), or preparing to use child soldiers.There are other options. Most of what Russia says or does is information warfare. It's either/both aimed at the West to make them think what you wrote - that they are ready and willing to wage a protracted war - to undermine the support for continued military aid, or/and internally to consolidate the populace by hammering it in that they're waging an existential war and everybody's gotta do their part ('Military service guarantees citizenship. Do you want to know more?').
I dunno, it seems centralized. There is much more Poland in various nonsense pushed by Russian propaganda and trolls. There is nothing new but just more of it.Fair enough. Even Lukashenka chimed in, rattling his Wagner sabre. Possibly to do with the approaching Polish parliamentary elections.
My favorite is that Poland is about to launch an invasion to reclaim Lviv and other pre-1939 territories
According to British intelligence services, starting after this year's summer vacation, Russian children between age 10 and 12 will learn how to fly military drones, how to handle guns and how to handle grenades in school.Russia has had military preparedness lessons in schools for years. This is where the famous videos of kids learning how to quickly assemble AK-47s comes from. They've just updated the curriculum.
I guess Russia is either preparing for a long war (when those kids turn 18, 6 to 8 years from now), or preparing to use child soldiers.
Trevor Reed, the American marine veteran that was released in a prisoner exchange with Russia last year (he was exchanged for a Russian jet pilot that was convicted for cocaine smuggling), stepped on a landmine in Ukraine and is being treated in a German hospital.They probably wanted to make sure he was going to live before they said anything.
According to the US government, they did not send him to Ukraine, he went there by himself.
The actual incident happened a few weeks ago, but was just released to the press.
I hate Dostoevsky so much.
The messaging in his books is absolutely gross and I say this as an (extremely tenuous, but still) christian. I was mostly focusing on what his effects on Russian society were, but yeah the books themselves are terrible too. War and Peace is boring as shit but every single one of Dostoevsky's books is three times worse. I walked back on hating all classic Russian authors, Tolstoy was an alright person, but the books are overhyped trash. After Pushkin it was only downhill until Bakunin finally wrote ones that aren't monumental obelisks to boredom.I hate Dostoevsky so much.
You have no idea how much I agree with you. Brother Karamazov made me want to puke until I decided to drop the book. It is a heap of garbage that presents a crew of evil, morally repugnant characters and then you feel the spirit of the author breathing down your neck "aren't we all like that deep down ?".
Hell no. Normal people don't want to kill their father to bang a whore. Becoming a slave is not the pinacle of spiritual enlightenment. Not believing is magic is not a source of morale confusion. There's something deeply wrong with Dostoeivsky and I'm happy I'm not the only one to point it out.
It's even worse when you consider that his "Karamazov brothers" are an essay on the "russian soul".
I do recommend Gorki if you havnt read him though. One of my favourite authors.I just, don't really read my country's classic stuff anymore. Can't see myself spending time on it when I am chewing through other countries and other genres I like more.
Brothers Karamazov is Putin's favorite book for a reason, it's basically his ideology 1 for 1.
Here's the thing: not-really-coherent reactionary rhetoric is his ideology. And the book is propaganda for it.
That’s a rule of the International Fencing Federation, the participants need to shake hands or the bout doesn’t finish, and a black card is given resulting in the DQ.The rules also clearly state that, in the event a player is disqualified for breaking the rules, the rule-abiding opponent will be advanced, so it's not unreasonable. I think they just didn't really have a plan for what would happen if someone is disqualified after winning.
The Russian staying on the strip for an hour attempting to get the result reversed was quite the dick move though.
The 32-year-old rejected Smirnova's handshake afterwards, instead offering her sabre to tap blades.Ukrainian athlete was willing to respect her Russian opponent, just not willing to shake hands. As shaking hands is a symbol of friendship and trust, and such a thing naturally is difficult when athletes are representing their nations and one has been persecuted by the other, it should have been fine for the Ukrainian and Russian fencers to tap blades in lieue of a handshake. This is especially true given that things like saluting are universal fencing custom with a long tradition, and both fencers observed the custom. Whereas handshakes are followed in some pistes and are things fencers like to do, but not every fencer will do. In some tournaments I've seen or partaken, some fencers did shake hands afterwards, whilst others just tapped blades, touched elbows or complimented the other fencer verbally on a good bout.
It led to an appeal from Smirnova, who staged a 45-minute sit-down protest.
"My message today is that we Ukrainian athletes are ready to face Russians on the sports field but we will never shake hands with them," Kharlan said afterwards.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has called upon sports federations to handle Ukrainian athletes and Russians competing as neutrals with "the necessary degree of sensitivity" following Kharlan's disqualification, adding: "We continue to stand in full solidarity with the Ukrainian athletes and the Olympic community of Ukraine."
In fencing, shaking hands is part of the rules of the sport and refusal to do so results in a black card and expulsion.
I am 99% sure that none of what's happening is this random Russian fencer's fault anyway. She may well have family in Ukraine. People do need to compartmentalize.
Honestly, I would also expect competitors in a tournament to obey the rules of respect, no matter how awful their opponent or their opponents nation is. You should be able to beat their ass in a competition, treat them with more dignity than they deserve because of your superiority, and then gun them down mercilessly on the battlefield.
I am 99% sure that none of what's happening is this random Russian fencer's fault anyway. She may well have family in Ukraine. People do need to compartmentalize.
The world fencing organisation removed the handshake requirement. The Ukrainian fencer is still disqualified for that particular match, but for the rest, her suspension is undone. She is welcome to participate at the rest of the World Championship.Common sense and protest prevails
Furthermore, the IOC has said that she will, even if she does not qualify, get a wildcard for participating at the next Olympic Games.
Edit 3 : Surovikin line breached near Robotyne. Possible collapse of the southern front to follow.At this point this is wishful thinking. What you call 'Surovikin line breached' is reaching the first (of three at this section of the front) line of defence. After two months of heavy fighting. In one place.
(My wet dream is offensive into Russia from Sumy, right into the soft rear of those forces pushing on the Northern front but we all know it is politically impossible)
(My wet dream is offensive into Russia from Sumy, right into the soft rear of those forces pushing on the Northern front but we all know it is politically impossible)"Those are not Ukrainian army units pushing into Russia, those are Ukrainian-speaking Russian self-defence forces defending themselves from Russian aggression"
The MJT (Mobile Justice Team), part of the ACAG (Atrocities Crimes Advisory Group) that was formed by the UK, US and EU to assist the Ukrainian justice department with persecuting warcrimes, reports that of all prisoners of war captured in the Cherson area, nearly half were subjected to torture and anal rape.It's at times like these I vomit remembering how many people I knew IRL who genuinely believed the most moral thing the West could do was disarm Ukraine so they would be forced to surrender to Russia
They interviewed 320 former prisoners of war that were held in various detention camps in the Cherson region. 43% of them reported having been tortured in the improvised prisons. Sexual violence was the most used form of torture, for both male and female prisoners.
36 prisoners reported the use of cattle prod electrical stun devices, applied to the genitals.
At least one prisoner was forced to watch as another one was being raped.
The report also states that part of the prisoners were not military, but civilian familiy members of military who were being punished for their familiy member being in the military.
With the men, it seems that the sexual torture is not just for pleasure and submission, but also to ensure that Ukrainian males will no longer be able to have children.
Are the naval drones those remote controlled boats filled with explosives they were talking about a while back?
Are the naval drones those remote controlled boats filled with explosives they were talking about a while back?
Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Ukrainian officials are claiming that the first line of Russian fortifications in the south have been broken through in multiple places. (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-forces-break-russian-first-line-of-defense-in-south/) The second lines are holding for now, but coming under attack.
This turns out to be 100% accurate. (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-maritime-drone-slams-into-russian-oil-tanker-kerch-strait-2023-8?amp)Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
That's a lot of ordnance going boom holy smokesThis turns out to be 100% accurate. (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-maritime-drone-slams-into-russian-oil-tanker-kerch-strait-2023-8?amp)Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?Not really about reinforcements, more important for disrupting Russian ability to resupply its own forces with ammunition/shells/barrels/water/food/fuel and all the other usual gubbins needed to sustain military action. The Crimean bridge is vitally important to disrupt as much as possible because trucks carrying supplies to the Crimean peninsula can then offload their supplies to Crimean supply depots. These depots can then transport supplies to Melitopol/Zaporozhia/Mariupol through the railway bridge on the Syvash (a vast shallow-water area which is a logistic nightmare to traverse) which the Ukrainians have also been sabotaging with missiles and saboteurs.
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
This forces Russia to use railway lines on the Rostov-Donetsk axis (which are in range of Ukrainian artillery), roads (which have lower transport volumes or have to take wide detours to avoid artillery/drone fire) or transport by port in Mariupol or Berdyansk (vulnerable adverse weather conditions and to port strikes, which the Ukrainians have also been conducting). All of which results in lower volumes of war materiel front line russians can use to shoot at Ukrainians, which greatly increases Russian attrition and makes the chance of forcing Russian withdrawal much greater. This is similar to what the Ukrainian army did in Kherson. They continually attacked despite heavy casualties, forcing the Russians to use up their stockpiles of ammunition. They destroyed the bridges behind them, so they could not restock on ammunition. Eventually their shortages became too dangerous to sustain and were forced to withdraw
The Kremlin presented a new school history book, in which the war in Ukraine is romanticized and condoned.A is for Ah fuck we can't do anything right
Children will learn that Russia sent a peacekeeping mission to Crimea in 2014, with as goal denazification an demilitarization of Ukraine.
Flying drones would do it. Gatwick in London got shut down for a day by one person flying a drone near the airport, to the point the mikitary were called in to get an anti-drone shield type thing in.
Kremlin wants to nationalise Yandex in preparation for presidential elections – ISWReminder that Yandex was a major provider of search results to DuckDuckGo.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415112/
It may not be a bad idea to consider this if you operate a website with a Yandex script on it
Kremlin wants to nationalise Yandex in preparation for presidential elections – ISWSeems like retaliation for the Yandex founder turning his back on Putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/co-founder-of-russian-tech-giant-yandex-condemns-barbaric-war)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415112/
It may not be a bad idea to consider this if you operate a website with a Yandex script on it
Palau is in free association with the USA. Does that mean that if Russia had shot the ship, the US would have had to declare war, or does free association not include military protection?
EDIT: not only that, the ship itself was Turkish, but sailing under the Palau flag. Could have been an article 5.
the western technology far outpaces russia's...so dunno how its still a stalemate.This ultimately just turned out not to be true.
Hm, does that mean Russia can just outproduce the west? I always thought the west (and US) just had way outpaced technology (not in production but how ahead of we are than russia in technology is what I meant). But maybe quantity>quality in this case? Its a bit off-topic, but I guess china would have the same thing, quantity>quality, though probably still better quality than russia. their economy is collapsing though. But thats not really for this thread.Why do you think the US has outpaced Russia in technology? All countries pretty much have the same technology now, and have for nearly a century. There are still small-scale state secrets in military spheres like individual navigation systems and stuff like that, but even there, everyone has COMPARABLE things. The last Armenia-Azerbaijan war, in the Caucasian backwater, was fought with drones.
But yeah, there has been a lot of being far too careful not to go past russia's borders and being too slow on the offensives. Both which is weird to me and doesn't make sense.
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Look at it like this: The USSR was way, way worse than modern Russia (a state that runs mostly on oil) in economic terms, but they still beat us in the space race and nuclear technology. This shows that it is honestly not that hard.
At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Bloc represented 9% of the world’s population and 10.5% of its economy, measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). The equivalent numbers for Russia and its allies (the ‘Putin Bloc’) in 2020 are 2.5% and 3.5%. If measured at market exchange rate, even before accounting for the ruble’s recent depreciation, the Putin Bloc’s share of GDP is even lower: 1.8% versus 6% for the Soviet Bloc at the end of the Cold War.
You're wrong of course. Both in the USSR beating the west in space and nuclear technology, and in Putin's Russia being more important than the USSR economicalluI didn't say "important" at all, but at the same time, this statistic isn't actually relevant in any way. It's just a smokescreen of numbers.QuoteAt the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Bloc represented 9% of the world’s population and 10.5% of its economy, measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). The equivalent numbers for Russia and its allies (the ‘Putin Bloc’) in 2020 are 2.5% and 3.5%. If measured at market exchange rate, even before accounting for the ruble’s recent depreciation, the Putin Bloc’s share of GDP is even lower: 1.8% versus 6% for the Soviet Bloc at the end of the Cold War.
Why do you think the US has outpaced Russia in technology? All countries pretty much have the same technology now, and have for nearly a century. There are still small-scale state secrets in military spheres like individual navigation systems and stuff like that, but even there, everyone has COMPARABLE things. The last Armenia-Azerbaijan war, in the Caucasian backwater, was fought with drones.
Russia also seems to have far more production capacity in currently usable existence. America probably has more capital, but we just don't have the factories and facilities actually built to the same extent.
Please, enlighten me on Russian military production capacity. I am especially interested in Russian military-grade microchips. Or civilian-grade microchips. Or 5th generation fighters. Or aircraft carriers. Or modern drones. And show me how it can produce more of those than the USA.Russia doesn't produce many microchips, but they buy tons of them from everyone else. That's one of the ways that, like I said, everyone has basically the same technology these days. Not too many microchips are produced in the US, either.
I think the only think keeping Russia alive is, honestly, the fact that Russia has nukes. If they didn't, NATO or others would have air-forced them into rubble by now.That's fairly accurate. We could send hypersonic jets to bomb Moscow, but then we would get to enjoy a strange game where the only way to win is not to play. And the thing is, most western countries have really underprepared for doing anything LESS than that. Our theories of power projection are outdated and may never have really made sense in the first place. Boom-boom-go-fast doesn't really win protracted wars.
the ability to spin something up on short notice to produce reasonable amounts of something you need right now. The US has done far more to specialize in huge expensive toys - like 5th-generation fighters and aircraft carriers - that just aren't efficient in modern combat scenarios in the new UAV/USV regime. We saw this problem on the small screen in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia keeps cranking out Lancets.
As to whether what I actually said was right, have you heard of Sputnik? Tsar Bomba? VVERs, which are still being built by countries around the world?
Boom-boom-go-fast doesn't really win protracted wars.
Sputnik wasn't a matter of the Soviets being "ahead", even if it was taken as such by the public in both countries. The first US satellite could have been launched as early as spring of '57, but Eisenhower cancelled the military program - he wanted it done by a civilian agency using a civilian rocket because he feared that flaunting the US ICBM program would be considered provocative. That delayed things considerably."They weren't ahead, they just did it first."
This shows that it is honestly not that hard.They just chose to focus on those things, mainly for oneupmanship reasons. The fact that it doesn't take a global superpower to make a technological propaganda win is exactly what I mean. And this is even more true now than it was then, since everyone's buying from the same relatively small technological pool, eg, Nvidia chips.
Huh? My claim was that “boom boom go fast” is indeed how you win wars.That was a quote from me. I didn't even notice it got messed up.
Makes you sort of long for the dystopia where wars are like sports, refereed by an AI or something, where you get some kind of actual penalty if you break the rules.There was a Star Trek TOS episode where two planets were having an unending simulated war to prevent infrastructural damage, and soldiers who get "shot", or civilians who get "bombed" are instructed to go to vaporization chambers. I got reminded of that.
Frankly, modern tanks are not cost-effective, being designed more for pitched tank-tank battles that never really happen anymore. This is a running theme with modern equipment, because military contractors like money and aren't too fussed if you have to order a new tank because your old one ate an anti-tank mine costing perhaps a couple hundred. In those conditions, you might as well use a T-55; it'll die just as hard, but at least it didn't cost much and it's probably lighter.
A similar thing was true since day 1 of tanks being a thing. WW2 tanks could be knocked out by a single Molotov, you can't go cheaper than that. Yet, tanks were cost-effective then, and they stay cost-effective now.They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.
And the difference in firepower and protection between T-55 and some modern tank is immense. It is simply wrong to assume that their chance to cease function after a land mine is the same.Neither that extra firepower nor the kind of protection that modern tanks are designed with (which is mainly against fire coming in more or less horizontally) help against mines. The truth is that their chance to cease function after a land mine really is very close to parity, close enough that you don't want to try driving over a mine to chance it. Some modern tank types are actually worse due to designs that, while a good idea in the theory of tank-tank combat, make mines more deadly to the occupants. As far as I know, no modern tanks come standard with measures that effectively defend against those newer anti-tank mines that fly up and smash into the roof that Russia's so proud of. Yes, the modern tanks are very fancy. The problem is that it doesn't help.
I mean. Look. We can SEE the amount of tanks that have blown up, and calculate the cost in dollars. It's not like this is a theory. We need to use different tactics.
Neither that extra firepower nor the kind of protection that modern tanks are designed with (which is mainly against fire coming in more or less horizontally) help against mines. The truth is that their chance to cease function after a land mine really is very close to parity, close enough that you don't want to try driving over a mine to chance it.
That's entirely true, but you must see how this is a problem when the tank costs millions of dollars and the means of destroying it costs a few hundred bucks. At that point, something has gone very wrong and new tactics are needed. At the very least, new specifically anti-mine tank designs which no country currently has. Right now, really practical demining equipment does not exist in the world. The best demining equipment is slow and expensive (read: vulnerable) and don't even individually cover enough area to safely run a tank convoy behind one even if this wouldn't get the tank convoy shelled to hell because the demining equipment is slow. The country that invents that will, indeed, have a genuinely important technological advantage, for however long it takes for everyone to copy it.QuoteI mean. Look. We can SEE the amount of tanks that have blown up, and calculate the cost in dollars. It's not like this is a theory. We need to use different tactics.
It is literally what tanks are made for. - To go into places where the enemy will try to destroy them with various means. Naturally, most of them are destroyed sooner or later. It is how it worked in every war that had tanks except very lopsided ones.
This is not exactly accurate. Ask surviving tank crews of Leopard 2s, who would be in space if they were in a T-72.More survivors is great, although I will caution you that, again, some modern tanks are worse; but you don't actually win wars by having more people limp home after losing a battle.
ETA: Honestly, I don't know why you guys aren't - unless you are and it's not making it over here, in which case never mind - mining the hell out of the Kupyansk front and probably also around Kherson in the direction they'd have to go to reach Odessa. Yeah, it'll suck to have to demine them later, but it'll suck even more if Russia advances on them, because then they will mine the hell out of it, and now you have to get it back and then demine it.
We simply don't have as many mines as Russia. Unlike them, we didn't produce those after the fall of USSR and while we inherited huge stokpiles in 1991... Some were sold both officially and via corrupt means, some went bad due to neglect. Some went BOOM in storages under mysterious circumstances. Some were destroyed for Western money in wonderful projects like this (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_99728.htm?selectedLocale=en)Ah, I see. That figures.
Sure, we are getting mines from the former Warsaw Pact stocks. We are even getting some modern and cool ones but it is not nearly enough to mine such a huge front to the same extent as Russians do.
The thing about the US producing so many tanks, ships, and planes that blah blah blah is that the era of tanks, ships, and planes, in the conventional sense of those things, is basically over. If the last dozen or so wars around the world, especially the Nagorno-Karabakh war, haven't convinced you of that, you haven't been paying attention."The conventional sense of those things"? Do you expect wars to be fought with sticks next? They era of tanks, ships, and planes isn't over, very clearly. Those things are still used to wage war. And will still be used to wage war.
Tank will be obsolete when and only when there is something that can replace them in their role and the only plausible thing is that it may be - tanks but unmanned.
The Chieftain, a tanker and professional historian, disagrees greatly with the idea that the modern tank is no longer cost effective. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8) There is literally nobody on the internet better placed to make that judgement, either.I have no idea why I would trust the opinion of someone who both is a historian, one of the best known occupations for making up bullshit, and has a personal stake in the outcome.
Huh it's almost like aircraft carriers don't operate alone and are instead escorted, by their own submarines and destroyers and their aircraft and so on and so forth.This does not work. Modern submarines frequently pass close to each other without being noticed, and even collide with things — even extremely expensive top-of-the-line American submarines from the past couple years. The sensor (and physical) environment underwater is just not the same, it's too easy to strike stealthily from a distance. Surface ships have even less hope of detecting modern submarines, and aircraft... do next to nothing in this context. Your best bet - once again - is to heavily mine the sea area where you'll be working, but this has obvious operational disadvantages and doesn't work quite as well as on land either.
Mines costing "a few hundred bucks" don't kill tanks. At all. A mine that costs a few thousand at the least might immobilize the tank, but the crew and vehicle will both survive to go back into action. Also what even is this about tanks being effective in WWII because people hadn't figured out Molotovs or comparable weapons? Molotovs literally came about in WWII and testing has shown that they are of very, very, very limited effectiveness against tanks. They could occasionally make a WWII tanker bail, but only sometimes would they burn out the engine. And to get close enough to employ that thing, you've got to get past the tank's weapons, his infantry companions, his other tanks in his platoon, and any other forces in the area. Rather than go further, I refer you to the Chieftain's video on the topic.Jesus you're overly literal.
It's not like this exact sort of technological asymmetry hasn't happened before. This is what ended the era of ironclads, capital ships, and ships of the line.
Your argument would suggest that anything not completely invulnerable is useless.No, I'm saying that anything that doesn't fill its role cost-effectively is useless.
None of those became obsolete because some weapon that can harm them in a cost-effective way appeared. They became obsolete because better vessels were able to do the very same job but far better.Why do you think that happened? The reason the better vessels which came after were better is because they were lighter and more mobile, so they weren't as vulnerable to the small craft that had been thrashing the big ships. Again, we need better vessels that can do the same job - not necessarily in literal terms, but fill the same combat role - without being blown up.
Why do you think that happened? The reason the better vessels which came after were better is because they were lighter and more mobile, so they weren't as vulnerable to the small craft that had been thrashing the big ships.
Trust me, the British Royal Navy didn't start throwing out sloops because they had more firepower to do the very same job as capital ships but better.It is exactly what happened. Post WW2 a fleet of small vessels armed with missiles provides more firepower than traditional artillery battleships of the same tonnage while being more mobile and more protected (by virtue of being a smaller target)
Your use of a list of British aircraft carriers and the inherent limited spectrum of threats and uses of a carrier in the North Atlantic and North Sea infuriates me and yet I'm pretty sure you're making a sarcastic point in agreement with me lol.
Tank will be obsolete when and only when there is something that can replace them in their role and the only plausible thing is that it may be - tanks but unmanned.https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Literature/Bolo
Yes, those drones are cool. And I am sure they, as a cost-effective tool, made all existing naval vessels obsolete. It is how it works, right?No. I said a tool becomes obsolete in a specific role when it, not some other thing, is no longer cost-effective to deploy in that role. When it's no longer worth making any more for a purpose. This directly relates to how, as I said, tank echelons squaring off against each other are obsolete, but tanks live on as fire support.
There are very few "one trick pony is all you need"s in warfare.
Agincourt didn't actually make knights obselete (arguably, through iterations of gradual change in armour levels/types, the horse-charge survived until at least WW2 - and I have an inkling even later) and Russian hypersonic missiles clearly aren't preventing the need for hand-to-hand trench fighting. Balances may change, but 'new' elements to warfare are wedges, gradually adjusting the effectiveness of a particular leg to any given combat scenario.Yeah, see, both of these appear to be directed toward my position, but neither of them were what I was saying in the slightest. I don't really understand what extra words I was supposed to use that I somehow missed. I raised this conversation with some other friends who immediately understood my meaning, so I guess this is some freakish dialectal difference.
[2] Surprised not to have seen whatever-the-Russians-have-had, yet, as their own pre-conflict speculative arms development. Someone in every major military power (and probably minor, and likely a number of non-state-actors) will have considered something of parity/equivalence. Amazing that 'any missile, of any generation they have' is being sent against Ukraine but the similar can't be said for the maritime domain. The lack of them is quite interesting, in fact, whichever one(s) of the (at least) three separate reasons it might be down to, that immediately come to mind.My understanding is that Russia had mostly been focusing on its blue-water navy in relation to its pretensions as an international great power, and the black sea was kind of a sideshow, both in terms of fleets and undersea vessels. The Montreux convention means that they're stuck with what they had based there already and anything they can build there now.
Yeah, see, both of these appear to be directed toward my position, but neither of them were what I was saying in the slightest.Not really replying to/against you, as I hadn't really noted which people were asserting which, just responding to the hubbub bouncing both ways. But I wasn't replying-with-quote against any exact statements.
My understanding is that Russia had mostly been focusing on its blue-water navy in relation to its pretensions as an international great power, and the black sea was kind of a sideshow, both in terms of fleets and undersea vessels. The Montreux convention means that they're stuck with what they had based there already and anything they can build there now.I'm not sure that'd stop them deploying "satnav controlled, jetski-powered TNT-packed kayaks", if they had them. And you'd think they would. I mean, they can still get things to the Moon! (...if not then land them safely. ROFL.)
This directly relates to how, as I said, tank echelons squaring off against each other are obsolete, but tanks live on as fire support.
I actually don't understand what you are talking about. I have an impression that you have played too much WoT or something like that and misunderstand how tanks were used.I don't even know what that is. I don't really care for video games.
Tanks exist as fire support since day 1.Yes. I'm not sure what your point is. I have never said that this is some kind of later development. I said that, out of two particular ways that tanks have been used, one effectively stopped existing, while the other did not.
Spin, the problem is that every time you try to make a point your example is patently incorrect.Considering that you haven't even been keeping track successfully of what examples are actually mine - I never said anything about molotovs - I don't really care.
They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.which certainly makes it sound like you believe that cheap AT weapons like Molotovs make tanks cost-ineffective. Hence the mention of Molotovs in a reply.
This is why lighter tanks, which are mostly older tanks, have survived noticeably better in Ukraine, and why Ukrainians have been welding grilles onto them and in some cases even removing superfluous armor
The way you expressed "tanks as fire support" versus "tanks as tank killers" was phrased as to outright say that tanks were first designed to fight tanks and later picked up an anti-infantry role.As a general rule, I do not intend to say things I don't literally say in so many words.
You replied to the statement about molotovs with the followingAgain, if I didn't literally say it, you should not infer that I meant it.They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.which certainly makes it sound like you believe that cheap AT weapons like Molotovs make tanks cost-ineffective. Hence the mention of Molotovs in a reply.
Obviously this is just a bit before Desert StormYou seem to have this weird problem where if I say "at least by X, Y was commonplace", you think I'm also saying "before X, Y didn't exist". It's entirely consistent with my position and expectations that very heavy, fat tanks would have been produced before that, for the same reason of expecting protracted tank battles; it's just not the time period I chose to comment on. Because Strongpoint had cited desert warfare specifically, so I wanted to make a point about that specifically. I get the impression that you would fail that puzzle with the four cards with letters and numbers.
Why are light tanks surviving better in Ukraine? They're not, there's just a lot of them and they've been assigned to units that are A. not as good at intel security and thus post their vehicles and battles and such onto social media (where they are thus available to be seen) whereas the heavier, better-equipped line units notably don't B. not facing frontline service in the deadliest areas as much as the aforementioned regulars.This is not consistent with the information I've heard, which I have good reason to believe is accurate. The information I have access to is specifically that lighter tanks are surviving better "pound-for-pound", by which I mean, adjusted for equivalent circumstances, and as a proportion of the number used. I acknowledge that I can't prove this, but my impression was that this is widely known.
You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
American historians, you mean.You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
Anyway, I'd also like to throw out that it's very common for historians to say, now, that the Sherman was the most important tank of WWII, especially compared to much heavier and higher-maintenance German tanks, because they were better able to deal with the actual conditions they were actually used in, including, crucially, the fact that the US could make a lot MORE of them. It's not like I'm saying anything new here.
American historians, you mean.I actually don't, I last heard it from a Brit.
You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
Anyway, I'd also like to throw out that it's very common for historians to say, now, that the Sherman was the most important tank of WWII, especially compared to much heavier and higher-maintenance German tanks, because they were better able to deal with the actual conditions they were actually used in, including, crucially, the fact that the US could make a lot MORE of them. It's not like I'm saying anything new here.
This is not consistent with the information I've heard, which I have good reason to believe is accurate. The information I have access to is specifically that lighter tanks are surviving better "pound-for-pound", by which I mean, adjusted for equivalent circumstances, and as a proportion of the number used. I acknowledge that I can't prove this, but my impression was that this is widely known.
You know what will make tanks outdated, tanks with legs.And then the mechs will be made obsolete by mechs with tank treads (https://youtu.be/6miBNuSI1e8).
Why hasn't Russia adapted to fielding somesort of anti-drone defense? The fact that Ukraine is doing so much damage with drones this war is absolutely crazy..
Notably, there was a recent news item about them putting up new drone jammers around the Moscow area, so it seems they are doing more.Why hasn't Russia adapted to fielding somesort of anti-drone defense? The fact that Ukraine is doing so much damage with drones this war is absolutely crazy..
Doing so is easier said than done. Russia presumably already has more than a few anti-drone systems in place, we're just hearing about the ones that don't get shot down. Kind of like how IEDs kept blowing up convoys and checkpoints in the Middle East, it's hard to catch all of them even when you know to expect them.
Tonight's attack on Ukraine's grain infrastructure was only 100 meters away from article 5.
On the other side of the Donau river lies NATO member Romania, at 100 meters distance.
If only one of those 9 Shahed drones had missed target by 100 meters it could have been WW3.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733Yeah, there are many claims that Prigozhin and\or Utkin were on the plane but no solid confirmation yet.
Reports that he was on board, shot down by air defenses north of Moscow, though that comes from Wagner.
His dead man switch could be Russia losing all influence in Africa, as Wagner troops join whichever islamic terror group pays better.
Edit: some Wagner Telegram channels are already considering annother armed march on Moscow, full aware that stopping halfway is not an option.
I don’t think I’m alone in wondering what actually took it so long.
I can't believe how stupid Prigozhin was, if this story is anywhere near true. I mean, to do all the stuff he did in the past he did not have to be highly intelligent, but I always thought him to be quite cunning.No matter how shrewd or cunning someone can be, no one is above making mistakes, especially when under stressful conditions and desperation
Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/army-ukraine-boats-attacks-dnipro-russian-raids-commandos/), but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-shelling-kills-11-in-dnipropetrovsk-region-as-questions-remain-over-explosions-deep-inside-russian-occupied-crimea-12669644). Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]
Trainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century
Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.
it's never struck me as a choice you can actually make, 'cause once you're dead there's little to nothing stopping them from killing your family anyway.
Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.
Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/army-ukraine-boats-attacks-dnipro-russian-raids-commandos/), but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-shelling-kills-11-in-dnipropetrovsk-region-as-questions-remain-over-explosions-deep-inside-russian-occupied-crimea-12669644). Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]Quote from: https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2023/august/11/230811-ukraine-marines-trainingTrainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century
6. Putin was genuinely sincere about his truce with Prigozhin, but one of the many warlords and defence ministers Prigozhin pissed off took it upon themselves to eliminate Prigozhin when the opportunity presented it, which puts Putin in a bind. Also possible, given that this could be someone taking advantage of Putin dismissing Surovikin, and the lack of a pre-prepared media spin or coherent narrative immediately after Prigozhin's death is pretty suspicious if Putin had truly planned this out over two months. It is a significant possibility this even surprised Putin, and he just has to own up to it because no one would believe him if he said it wasn't him anyways.
1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.
Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.Theories like that are always the funniest ones, love reading shit like those.
I am offended that there is no "It was Ukrainian intelligence that planted a bomb" theory... After all, it is what Russian propaganda seems to hint at.I heard there was a funny interview with a duma representative where they asked him who did it and he said "Ukrainians obviously" and the interviewer then asked him "how are Russian defences so weak can Ukrainians operate with impunity inside Russia" and he immediately began to panic
A good way to determine what happened is to wait and see if Russians will allow Embraer to examine the wreck. If not it will confirm a SAM missile.
FSB: "Putin, Prigozhin is dead."Gerasimov's assassin looking panicked as he sits behind watching Prigozhin eat Putin's poisoned potato whilst Shoigu's missile races towards them all
Putin: "Ahhh, so the poisoned potato found it's mark I see."
FSB: "....Poisoned whatnow?"
Putin: "...What was that explosion just now?"
Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
Not too impossible, given the state of Russian aerospace industry. The plane doing erratic maneuvres (rapid ascents & descents) before the crash, and the video of the plane clearly missing bits of itself before the crash, both suggest they tried to dodge a missile and then got hit. If a 100 oligarchs fall out of a window, one of them is bound to be an accident :P1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.
Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Criminals to mercenaries to ghosts to war criminals to war heroes to traitors to patriots to redacted
Eternal memory indeed.
"Why would we ever need to do that?"~Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
[PRC & NK looking nervously at SK]"Why would we ever need to do that?"~Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Half of me is like "that's the just reward for serving evil", and the other half yet feels a bit bad for them.
Eternal memory indeed.
...they seem a better fit for the Russian Volunteer Corps.Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Half of me is like "that's the just reward for serving evil", and the other half yet feels a bit bad for them.
Eternal memory indeed.
Guys, just defect to the free legion, they are hiring.
In interviews, those who knew Salmin said they feared running into the same man who once terrorised their home town and may now have been made untouchable by his association with Prigozhin, one of Russia’s most notorious figures.If you see the guy walking down your street a decorated war hero and you're the reason he got convicted you'd probably better start running because they may be there to kill you
“We started seeing him in town a few weeks ago,” one local resident who has known Salmin for many years told the Guardian. “He is a dangerous man, we all know what he did to his friend. I told my kids not to run around alone in the coming days. It wasn’t just what he did to his friend, he stole from people, got in many fights and was harassing girls. He drank a lot, used drugs and was violent.”
“We don’t want such people back in Pikalevo,” said the person, who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. “What kind of hero is he?”
...
Many fear that those being released could now seek to settle scores at home.
In 2014, Kirill Neglin of Segezha was sentenced to 12 years in prison on counts of drug dealing and domestic abuse. After a bout of heavy drinking, he repeatedly hit and kicked his wife, terrorising her both at home and then following her to their dacha, where she said she silently endured another attack because she feared for their children’s lives.
After she testified against him, Neglin issued a threat in court. “She won’t live long,” he said, according to a court transcript first reported by the independent news outlet Verstka. “Whatever sentence the court gives [me], that’s how long she has left to live.”
It must be horrible to be Russian parents and see the guy who raped your teenage daughter and killed her with 60 stabs with a knife walking down your street as a decorated war hero
hoping to halt the Ukrainian breakthrough.
north of the logistically-important Tokmak in the Zaporizhia Oblast.I just wanted to orientate myself, so I went to a tab upon which I have a mapping site already being visited, and zoomed out, scrolled across Europe and down towards the right bit of Ukraine. Only it looked odd.
the rail and highway going through Tokmak are effectively controlled by Ukrainian artillery fire. The same goes for the nearby air base.I don't think this is true. The tip of the wedge is maybe 10km closer to Tokmak than before the offensive, and it's narrow too. You can't put your artillery in that area and expect it to survive.
We're also seeing a major increase in the destruction of key Russian assets - artillery, air defense, etc - in ways that we wouldn't be seeing if things weren't going well for Ukraine. The decisive factor here is the extensiveness of Russian minefields, as it is extremely difficult to demine in combat conditions without proper air cover for suppression. That slows an advance significantly even if it isn't killing very many Ukrainians (there's lots of hard evidence that the newly supplied Western vehicles are living up to their design goals of crew protection - most of the ones confirmed to be knocked out had most of the crew escape, even when the vehicle was a total loss).Exactly. There is an unfair expectation that Ukraine should be able to make large sweeping gains of territory whilst also not providing them with the air cover needed to protect their tanks in order to pull off such mobile warfare. Instead, people should take note of Ukraine's priorities.
The big issue is that everybody's expectations for what a breakthrough would look like were heavily colored by last year's collapses. Which not only were not guaranteed when they happened, but were preceded by a pretty good length of grinding stalemate most observers have forgotten.
The emphasis on counter-battery fire could well be part of a shift in tactics as the counteroffensive continues. The New York Times reported Saturday that Ukraine changed tactics after the first two weeks of combat saw “as much of 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed.”This is reflected in complaints on Russian telegram from soldiers complaining about the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter-battery fire and the lack of interest from Russian high command that this is just getting worse. One thing to remember is the Ukrainian leadership is very cognisant of how the war will end. It's entirely possible for the Ukrainians to fully liberate all of the country and still have to keep fighting. The only thing that will truly end the war in Ukraine's favour is;
Attrition rates slowed as commanders adapted in the ensuing weeks, but the story noted losses have decreased because the counteroffensive itself has not progressed rapidly.
While accurate strikes on Russian artillery do not translate immediately into territorial gains, it fits with shaping the battlefield in what has become a war of attrition in some respects. Ukrainian ground forces can better exploit weak points in the Russian lines when Moscow has degraded artillery capabilities to effectively respond and suppress them. With 155mm cluster munitions having arrived in Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles, this artillery disparity is set to only increase. In terms of counter-battery fire, these weapons can also allow for saving prized guided munitions to quickly kill enemy batteries with high certainty.
In other sectors of the front, the Russian command does not need such a goading, as it voluntarily drives to slaughter the last remnants of the infantry, no longer very combat-ready due to previous losses. The Russian military has an incredible talent for turning any village with a couple of landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their own, not enemy, units are ground. Why? Yes, because “BUSV”, the Combat Charter of the Ground Forces, these people do not open and read almost ever. And more than any “Javelins” and “HIMARS”, more than any “NATO satellite groups” fighting against us is the Combat Charter of our own Ground Forces, on which our valiant command wanted to shit. And ukrops [Ukrainians] – they read it and creatively processed it, taking into account the available new technologies.So take with a pinch of salt every time the news is all "offensive now??? Now... Offensive? 10 metres of land taken... Ukraine/Russia is over?"
In the text about radio communications, I described the main problem of command and control in the Russian army, due to which the army cannot really advance, cannot maneuver, and cannot even fully repel enemy attacks. Nothing larger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” in the RF Armed Forces can be controlled as a single organism. And, of course, in this situation, the battalion commanders and company commanders of these “remnants” become well-deserved heroes, who, if possible, drag all the shit on their own backs. Although more often, alas, they don’t. And they are buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, each organized worse than the previous one, we still capture another piece of land and collect their rotten remains.
From the fact that the Russian army can do nothing except for, bleeding, capture another village while surrendering a district center or an entire region on the other flank, the Russian army made an amazing conclusion – let’s take more villages! And arranged the maximum possible Verduns along the entire front line, including the very infamous Pavlovka in the DPR. And, of course, Bakhmut. How could it be without it? Why not kill the last remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not possible at all. These fucking bastards need to get positive motives for the news somewhere! Here, we freed another 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the first to report on the complete liberation of the village gets an order.
Do you mean the Kremlin doesn't take all the necessary precaution to insure the survivability of its opponents? Shocked, I'm shocked I tell you.
Latest Girkin troll was absolutely out of this world though. He's running for president because, in essence, Vladimir is "too smart, too kind and too athletic". Girkin is 100% going to deserve the accident in store for him, but hot damn I'm going to miss his twitter
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. ...
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
In Russia, a citizen can die in a locked room...I've also heard that Russian citizens can shoot themselves in the back of the head without a gun, such amazing tricks the Russians know.
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. The prosecutor’s office is investigating the case as attempted murder.I hope they catch the bastard before he hurts more people
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to DW.
According to available data, on August 26, a 10-year-old boy was near the bridge with several other Ukrainian children, when an unknown man accused the children of speaking Ukrainian. The man demanded that they speak Russian and allegedly declared that Ukraine had started a war.
Then the man allegedly pulled the girl by the hair, grabbed the 10-year-old boy, and threw him over the railing into the canal. The boy hit the iron beams attached to the bridge and suffered injuries to his head and left leg. When the boy was lying in the canal, an unknown man allegedly threw a glass bottle at him, which hit the child in the right shoulder. After that, the man left the scene.
The perpetrator appears to be between 40 and 45 years old, and the police are looking for him.
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
What did he do to get labeled as a foreign agent?
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. The prosecutor’s office is investigating the case as attempted murder.It is now being reported that the boy gave false information and this did not happen as described. (https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article247246392/Ukrainischen-Jungen-von-Bruecke-geworfen-Wende-im-Fall-Einbeck.html)
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to DW.
According to available data, on August 26, a 10-year-old boy was near the bridge with several other Ukrainian children, when an unknown man accused the children of speaking Ukrainian. The man demanded that they speak Russian and allegedly declared that Ukraine had started a war.
Then the man allegedly pulled the girl by the hair, grabbed the 10-year-old boy, and threw him over the railing into the canal. The boy hit the iron beams attached to the bridge and suffered injuries to his head and left leg. When the boy was lying in the canal, an unknown man allegedly threw a glass bottle at him, which hit the child in the right shoulder. After that, the man left the scene.
The perpetrator appears to be between 40 and 45 years old, and the police are looking for him.
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.Does he say this whenever you speak with him?
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.From the news I've been seeing about the area, I'd say it's likely. Under the circumstances, this could easily mean war between Azerbaijan and Iran, since Iran has clearly made the Zangezur corridor a red line. Turkey would have to decide whether to intervene, which is as much as to say that there is a risk of bringing NATO into war with Iran; but Iran is certainly emboldened by its perception of the status of the Ukrainian war. The situation is a powder-keg, to say the least.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp)I've noticed for a while now there's been a concerted effort on the part of our media, especially business-oriented media, to try to convince Americans not to support any more aid to Ukraine. Previously, it was, "well, the offensive's stalled, isn't it so boring and hard to care about now?"; now that that's become a hard claim to maintain, it's "Ukraine doesn't need any more tanks, those tanks did their job, everything's fine and you don't need to care about it".
Western vehicle losses not a big deal, since they're designed to prioritize survival of the crews. I've been saying this ever since Western media has been trying to terrify with Bradley losses, but official journalists are finally clarifying better than I could.
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.From the news I've been seeing about the area, I'd say it's likely. Under the circumstances, this could easily mean war between Azerbaijan and Iran, since Iran has clearly made the Zangezur corridor a red line. Turkey would have to decide whether to intervene, which is as much as to say that there is a risk of bringing NATO into war with Iran; but Iran is certainly emboldened by its perception of the status of the Ukrainian war. The situation is a powder-keg, to say the least.
Mainstream AKA leftist media tends to still support the War in Ukraine, including at least some aid, since it's literally the best possible war for making President Biden look good. American equipment destroying Russia with NO Americans dying. I'll take 4 more years of that!https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp)I've noticed for a while now there's been a concerted effort on the part of our media, especially business-oriented media, to try to convince Americans not to support any more aid to Ukraine. Previously, it was, "well, the offensive's stalled, isn't it so boring and hard to care about now?"; now that that's become a hard claim to maintain, it's "Ukraine doesn't need any more tanks, those tanks did their job, everything's fine and you don't need to care about it".
Western vehicle losses not a big deal, since they're designed to prioritize survival of the crews. I've been saying this ever since Western media has been trying to terrify with Bradley losses, but official journalists are finally clarifying better than I could.
Tanks aren't ablative armor, though.
this is unwinnable and will destabilize Iran with its large Azerbaijani diaspora.Not at all. Iran's interest is in uniting the Azeris, of whom more already live in Iran than Azerbaijan, under its rule, something the Iranian Azerbaijanis seem to support. It's already made intimations that it would be willing to incorporate an independent Nakhchivan, which has considerable separatist sentiment, in a similar way to Russia and the LPR.
When people like EJ say mainstream media, they don’t mean mainstream media.It sure is weird that you specifically pulled out only the fifth through seventh most mainstream, and didn't mention Disney News, CNN, the New York Times, or MSNBC.
Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/07/broad-agreement-in-u-s-even-among-partisans-on-which-news-outlets-are-part-of-the-mainstream-media/) are mainstream media. He’s not referring to them.
When people like EJ say mainstream media, they don’t mean mainstream media.It sure is weird that you specifically pulled out only the fifth through seventh most mainstream, and didn't mention Disney News, CNN, the New York Times, or MSNBC.
Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/07/broad-agreement-in-u-s-even-among-partisans-on-which-news-outlets-are-part-of-the-mainstream-media/) are mainstream media. He’s not referring to them.
Not at all. Iran's interest is in uniting the Azeris, of whom more already live in Iran than Azerbaijan, under its rule, something the Iranian Azerbaijanis seem to support. It's already made intimations that it would be willing to incorporate an independent Nakhchivan, which has considerable separatist sentiment, in a similar way to Russia and the LPR.
It's not too different from Syria - Iranian Twelver Shia aren't exactly fond of Alawites either.
Yeah, EJ forgetting that Fox news exists is exactly why sane people don't take right-wing shitposts seriously anymore. They take for granted the fact that the cold war has seriously, badly shifted American politics a LOT more right-wing than the norm in the rest of the world, and instead keep moving the goal posts and insisting that anything left of letting billionaires hunt homeless people for sport is communism.Actually, I'm old enough to remember when Fox News wasn't mainstream media. Usually, when people use the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media", they're specifically excluding Fox News. It used to also be the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media" also primary was said on Fox News, so it was kinda obvious that they weren't talking about themselves.
I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia
The Russian drones were of Iranian make, right? At least sone of them.Yes, the Saheeds. Which are one of the more effective weapons systems they're using.
I daresay the war in Ukraine shows it'd be unwise for Iran to engage in an uncertain military adventure. Even if Russia ended up winning (or with a settlement that left them with more territory than when they started) the cost/benefit is clearly horrendous. Azerbajan has an experienced & kind of modern army. In many ways their war with Armenia (which had a Russian style old-soviet-hardware type of army) predicted the course of the war in Ukraine.
Now. I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia and odds are that their old soviet hardware will perform better But on the other hand "better shape than Russia" is a really low bar and I also suspect they are not eager to test its performance outside tighly co trolled scenarios, and fighting for some already contested land of questionable value for them is more likely than not not in the books
Usually, when people use the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media", they're specifically excluding Fox News. It used to also be the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media" also primary was said on Fox News, so it was kinda obvious that they weren't talking about themselves.
Well, when they are apparently arranging for military assistance (in return for food..?[1]) from Kim's country, it seems to suggest an amount of desperation.I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia
AHAHAHAHAHA
GLORIOUS DEAR LEADER PUTIN IS OF MAKE COUNTRY GREAT AND STRONG
Surely now Russia will be able to finally overcome their great rivals and peers (in 30 years) like... Turkey, or Turkish Cyprus
I daresay the war in Ukraine shows it'd be unwise for Iran to engage in an uncertain military adventure.I said "its perception of" for a reason. They see what they want to there.
The bigger issue for Iran is that they're not a nuclear power. Which means that if a major power decided that intervention was appropriate, Iran doesn't have the same trump card to prevent it
Fun fact: There is a theory (i think it counts ad a conspiracy theory?) that Iran is behind the recent Koran burnings and succequent fallout for Sweden as part of some scheme to make Sweden look bad?
There's footage of the aftermath of a Ukranian drone attack on a Russian landing ship and Kilo-class submarine in drydock. The damages to the submarine aren't given enough focus to evaluate the damage, but the landing ship looks like a total loss.I'm seeing some claims from Ukraine that Starlink was - once more - shut down for the duration of the attack, stranding the drones before they could reach their targets. The damage would then be done by missiles only.
Some good news: Putin's close ally, Chechen leader Kadyrov is in a coma, most likely dying from a kidney disease.Only source is Ukrainian intelligence so far so I'd take this with a pinch of salt unless there's independent confirmation
He was flown to Moscow for treatment, where doctors said they could not do anything for him anymore.
Tomorrow he might be flown to the United Arab Emirates to see if doctors there can help him.
Chechen uprisings and battles for succession would be nice.
Only on that general theme, not at all to do with Ukraine/nearby, I just want to note in passing that I feel for those in Morocco who had the worst earthquake in local living history and then got overshadowed by the Libya floods. The victims of the latter definitely also deserve our concern, at least as much, but have rather kicked those suffering from the Moroccan aftermath from the news...In Spain, Lybian floods have almost been a footnote in the news compared to Morocco. Which I found irritating
All I "know" about Armenia is they were victims of Turkey's war crimes.
They were. The problem is that caused Armenians to go rather... right-wing type irrational. A significant part of them openly dream about the Great Armenia with plans to get parts of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran to get back the rightful lands of the most ancient and the most holy nation ever existing.Siege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fire
Siege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fireYep, their nation survived a huge trauma and it is an understandable result. It doesn't change that with their attitude (and lack of any economic or military might) will lead their nation to bad places unless they change it to something more fitting for the modern world.
Yeah. It's pretty tragic seeing shit like China, India, Pakistan, Israel et al emerging from centuries of trauma just to trace the same ugly paths of imperialism and racism that were foist upon themQuoteSiege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fireYep, their nation survived a huge trauma and it is an understandable result. It doesn't change that with their attitude (and lack of any economic or military might) will lead their nation to bad places unless they change it to something more fitting for the modern world.
Admitting that doing stuff like turning ancient mosques into pigsties can be a good start.
Jingoists might be a better word than ultranationalists, I guess.Sometimes ultranationalist is a better fit, just because you do get prominent strains of jingoists who are liberals (e.g. American warhawks are usually very jingoistic but liberal and global in outlook) and you get ultranationalists who are very weak on foreign policy but dickheads at home (e.g. Malaysia or Indonesia being weak in the face of China but willing to destroy centuries old Hindu temples or implement exclusionary civil policies with religious laws)
They were. The problem is that caused Armenians to go rather... right-wing type irrational. A significant part of them openly dream about the Great Armenia with plans to get parts of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran to get back the rightful lands of the most ancient and the most holy nation ever existing.
I think supremacist (all other nations are inferior) and imperialist (weaker nations must/deserve to be dominated/conquered) nationalism fits well. Traditionally they often pair strongly with what Strongpoint defined as ultramationalist as far as I can see, although over here that kind of ultranationalism has taken a backseat to the less specific race nationalism for the last 30 years or so ("race nationalism" here used to describe "white power" and similar movements where they start identifying their race as their nation before their actual nation).
I like to separate supremacist and imperialist bents because while they often come together wholly or partially supremacist nationalism also comes in the more "isolationist" variety that I associate with say English nationalists (I can't say how accurate that is though but it is the impression I have from afar) who are very "we are the best and everybody else are savages" seems to not come with the assumption that the rest of the world should belong to them any more.
Back on topic, Ukraine appears to have hit an important Crimean airfield. The base, which supposedly housed a minimum of 12 tactical fighters, was first hit with a drone swarm to overwhelm the air defenses, followed by a salvo of Neptune missiles. Footage of large explosions and great amounts of fire has been circulating.And two patrol ships! (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/21/ukraine-strikes-russian-ships-state-of-the-art-aerial-defences-in-crimea)
[...] double DC to AC to DC conversion is just silly.
Sevastopol Black Sea Fleet HQ in flames after devastating Ukrainian missile attack (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia)
Ukrainian tactics were really clever. First they launched a swarm of drones to saturate Russian air defences before launching Ukrainian-manufactured Neptune cruise missiles, to increase the likelihood of cruise missiles penetrating layered air defence systems. I actually think that for all the justified praise UK & Poland get for training Ukrainian servicemen, that actually Ukraine is in a position to train NATO forces on how to fight a conventional war in the 21st century. There was a very funny interview of a Ukrainian veteran who completed a training course abroad who said "50% was really useful, 50% would get me killed very quickly" after he told an instructor that their trench-clearing exercise was "nice but unusable." I also love this one quote from a US training instructor who said that the Ukrainians taught him the value of soup - can never have enough soup
Only one reported death tho
No-one has mentioned the Poland row yet. In summary Poland, along with Slovakia and Hungary, announced they will continue to ban grain imports from Ukraine, after an EU-wide directive to ban all import of Ukrainian grain into the EU market was allowed to expire by the EU Commission. They said this is to protect local farmers from a potential glut in the market that would drop the price of grain. They will allow grain to continue to transit through the country. This is after the EU Commission insisted that EU members shouldn't make individual policies within the bloc. After this Ukraine made a complaint against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia at the WTO (since dropped against Slovakia) that they were ignoring their international obligations. Zelenskyy also said in a speech at the UN that "friends in Europe" were creating a "political theatre" out of grain that had the effect of "setting the stage for a Moscow actor." Polish PM took offence to that statement and said there will be no further Polish shipments of weapons to Ukraine other than those already promised at this time, though he couched it in saying that this is because Poland was arming Poland first. This is in the context of upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland in which the ruling party PiS is facing pressure from the far-right who are opposed to more aid to Ukraine. There have been moves from both sides to repair ties.
viet what now, never heard of it
(At this point, I remember that like any good American, I forgot about Vietnam. Moving on...)
What does the average Ukrainian feel about Zelensky? And, what could the average Ukrainian blame on Zelensky that they could not blame on the Russians?
Most voters probably see a vote against Zelensky equal to surrendering to Russia and accepting the people-purges and police state that would follow.
Armenia might be disappointed when they talk to the West and find out that region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan....Hm, I suspect the United States could ignore all that to prop up an Enemy-of-My-Enemy.
Armenia might be disappointed when they talk to the West and find out that region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan....
McCarthy is supposedly interested in maintaining Ukrainian support.Actually, he might be able to use that to keep his job.
Whether or not he’s still in the job to be able to do that is anyone’s guess.
The fuckup in Canadian parliament is nothing compared to what happened in US Congress.
I hope this does not mean the end of US support for Ukraine.
Well, in the US, I would be surprised if Biden didn't win.The fuckup in Canadian parliament is nothing compared to what happened in US Congress.
I hope this does not mean the end of US support for Ukraine.
I am not worried much. Those are political games and some solution will be found. I do worry about the 2024 elections...
Oh, my. I've only now learned about that fuckup in the Canadian parliament from like a week ago. By watching Russian propaganda, no less. Who are of course having a field day with it.I still don't get how only one guy in that entire parliament seemed to clock something was funny when the speaker said "fought against the soviet union for ukrainian independence in WWII"
I'm not worried either, its a small portion of right wing extremists against the US military industrial complex (https://www.analystnews.org/posts/as-the-war-in-ukraine-drags-on-americas-arms-industry-reaps-the-profits). This is not a fight a small faction of the right wing is ever going to win. As much as I hate money in politics sometimes the money is simply on your side.Not to mention that even if a pro-Ukraine anti-Russia president gets elected, there's plenty a US government could do to harm certain areas of arms procurement. E.g. defence industry mandems want long term contracts to justify their own investments into scaling up production of shells (https://ig.ft.com/us-defence-industry/). So it's easy to see how a hostile US president could royally muck up Ukraine's arms supplies in key areas like shells, as well as fighter jets & armaments
As strongpoint says though, if Trump wins in 2024 everything can change very quickly. I would be pretty surprised if Trump won, although it remains a very frightening possibility.
Oh, my. I've only now learned about that fuckup in the Canadian parliament from like a week ago. By watching Russian propaganda, no less. Who are of course having a field day with it.I still don't get how only one guy in that entire parliament seemed to clock something was funny when the speaker said "fought against the soviet union for ukrainian independence in WWII"
Buncha historically illiterate muppets run the world
In the aftermath of the fight against ISIS, for example, demand from the Pentagon declined significantly. The DoD “invested all this money to ramp up Hellfire production to 10,000 a year and then the US said ‘we don’t want those anymore’”, says Pettyjohn. A scramble to find foreign buyers ensued, leaving the primes wary of a repeat scenario.Just adding on to the point of "US government could fuck up the armament issue, even by accident, moreso with an actively obstructive president"
“[The manufacturers] couldn't responsibly just go out and build a factory and hire 3,000 people without any hope of a budgetary [signal],” says Martin of Rand Corporation. “And is the government doing it? No, absolutely not.”
Yes indeed, the Soviet Union that had its own secret police, massive purges, killed more of their own people in said purges and similar than Nazi Germany killed people TOTAL, and started the war on the side of Nazi Germany. After spending years helping the Germans rearm against the terms of the Treaty of Versailles.My guy you couldn't have explained my point any better
The Soviet Union was not some great member of the Allies, they were an ally of convenience guilty of greater atrocities than the Nazis. It is a great tragedy that they didn't fall apart after or during WWII. I wouldn't be hasty to judge anyone who decided that it was better for their friends and neighbors that they fight with the Germans against the Soviets, not if they'd already been under the Soviet boot.
Now, obviously, this particular case is probably different because the guy literally served in an SS unit according to what I've seen thrown around the internet. That is just some bad fact-checking on the part of somebody in the Canadian parliament.
So historically illiterate, not necessarily. Generic illiterate? Probably.
In point of fact there were resistance groups and nations like the Finns and Poles who at various points were not aligned with the Axis and fought against the Soviets.
My point was that fighting with the Axis isn't the be-all end-all of evil; and that the part they were blindsided by was based on their own inability to do research on exactly who they were about to acclaim in front of an entire nation and not a lack of historical comprehension. I wouldn't have a problem with praise for a Finnish soldier who may well have fought on every single side of WWII.
There were plenty of people who had no choice but to cooperate with an otherwise-enemy group by the immensely polarizing situation of the war, after all. If the Chinese communists and nationalists could work together to fight the Japanese we shouldn't be surprised that groups that absolutely do not agree (i.e., Nazis and most everyone else) might fight together to fight the immediate existential threat. And probably shouldn't hate unreasonably those who make that decision instead of, say, seeing their country fully invaded and occupied by a genocidal regime. Working with the other genocidal regime in the mix (or just your sworn enemies) is preferable to seeing your neighbors, friends, family, and self fed into a concentration camp/gulag/various atrocities the Japanese committed, after all.
But of course Polish citizen doesn't equal ethnic Pole? Considering their location of activity I wouldn't be surprised for them to be ethnic Ukrainian Polish citizens.In the beginning, ALL of them were volunteer ethnic Ukrainians from Galicia, which was a pre-war region of Poland and before WW1 it was a part of Austro-Hungary. Because of the latter part it never was a part of Reishcomissariate Ukraine and was governed quite differently and, frankly speaking, as long as you weren't a Roma or a Jew it was a far better than 1939-1941 Soviet period and, for Ukrainians, at least comparable to the Polish period.
I completely missed whatever this Canadian thing that happened was. What happened?The common Canadian L (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7sFxJbcYvg)
Some personal news:Holy shit that's a close call. Hope he recovers swiftly Strongpoint
My brother is in a hospital after getting a small piece of shrapnel in his leg. He feels good enough to curse at doctors who want to keep him for two weeks. His crew is fine. R.I.P another 2S1 Gvozdika
“It is likely that the damage to both the gas pipeline and the communication cable is the result of external activity,” Sauli Niinistö said on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. “The cause of the damage is not yet clear; the investigation continues.”
[...]
Local media cited unnamed government sources as saying Russian sabotage was suspected, while regional security experts said a Russian survey vessel had recently been observed in the vicinity of the pipeline.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said the transatlantic military alliance was “ready to share information about the destruction of Finnish and Estonian underwater infrastructure” and to “support its allies”.
I don't get why everyone's making a big deal about a war in Israel anyway I mean there's fighting over there all the time anyway I'm not sure what makes this new and exciting.
The war in Israel, for all the current noise, is a drop in the bucket compared to Ukraine. Give it a month or two for Israel to strike at all targets of value,
and, unless other regional players attack Israel, this war will devolve into a stalemate in the ruins with a final death toll of less than 10% of what has already happened in Ukraine.
I used to hold out hope that Putin dying would bring an end to the war with Russia withdrawing, but I now doubt that would happen even if he did die in the near future. For one thing he may live another 15 years, and for another I keep reading that the people likely to replace him are just as bad.The next one might be more evil, but evil people watch out for themselves. If the next dictator decides to stay in Ukraine it becomes *their* war. And if a dictator loses their war they often get kicked out of office for being weak.
Anyway, I feel you on the prospects of the Ukrainian war. I try not to form strong feelings on the direction of the war since I have such limited information, but it's obvious that it's deteriorated into a grind and naively I'd expect Russia to have a lot of advantages when it comes to a long and grinding war.Most of my information on the topic comes from the excellent Perun. This video in particular (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs)is highly relevant to this topic.
That said, I'm still astonished that they're managing to keep their war effort going with the horrendous losses they keep taking. I know that they can keep feeding people into the war essentially forever and can keep a trickle of cobbled-together equipment flowing into it, on top of buying equipment from their scant allies like North Korea and Iran, but it's still astonishing that they're managing to keep up as much as they are. Will their effort suddenly collapse when the 40 artillery systems destroyed every day finally catch up to what they can replace? Or the loss of tanks and APCs? I don't know, but I'd have expected it to collapse a long time ago at this rate.
And while it appears that Ukraine is losing proportionally fewer people and equipment, I have to acknowledge that we don't know the true numbers on either side and there's a strong incentive to keep bad news hidden from public eye.
Anyway, I feel you on the prospects of the Ukrainian war. I try not to form strong feelings on the direction of the war since I have such limited information, but it's obvious that it's deteriorated into a grind and naively I'd expect Russia to have a lot of advantages when it comes to a long and grinding war.If this was Russia vs Ukraine then Russia would have a tremendous advantage in a long and grinding war.
If this was Russia vs Ukraine then Russia would have a tremendous advantage in a long and grinding war.If it were Russia on military footing vs Ukraine and the West on military footing, then it'd be no contest. But this is Russia with one leg in military footing, Ukraine full-on mobilised but with little production capacity, and the West half-arsedly throwing scraps and doing peace-time business.
(...)
But this isn't Russia vs Ukraine. Its Russia vs Ukraine + a sizeable portion of the global military industrial complex. Sure they only get a small amount of said budget, but even a small amount of the weapons of all those countries adds up to a very big number.
Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
The West will simply never go into full military production any time soon. We cannot afford the economic devastation. Europe least of all.There is more to chose from that between a trickle and a 100% economic mobilisation.
There is more to chose from that between a trickle and a 100% economic mobilisation.Can you name something specific you'd like?
I said this a bit ago in other places and got shouted down a little — and I agree, it seems fairly scattered and haphazard.Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
We've said it before here, but I'll say it again: Having Ukraine fall to Russia will have terrible consequences on a geopolitical scale. If Russia establishes that nuclear powers can bully non-nuclear countries with impunity (sanctions are a joke), then you're going to get a lot more nuclear proliferation in the coming decades. Getting nukes is not that hard for a country, Pakistan developed their nuclear arsenal from scratch against the West's wishes and sabotage efforts.This is a pretty silly take. First of all, you overstate the ease of "getting nukes" by a lot: Iran still doesn't have them (not for lack of trying), North Korea almost certainly managed to lose theirs, despite both countries having the backing of both of the most powerful anti-west nuclear-armed states. You mention Pakistan having them and the Taliban not having them, but Pakistan is, of course, the Taliban's largest backer. Pakistan certainly had a lot of help, both open and clandestine, just as India did. Indeed, since the Soviet Union intensively spied on the US nuclear program, there's not a single nuclear arsenal in the world that doesn't chain back to the Manhattan Project. And when it comes to getting help, at least since the fall of the USSR, countries have shown reticence to give away something like that. I can definitely tell you that pretty much all of Africa wants them, but they have yet to get any of their own and relations between African countries and Russia haven't gone that far yet either.
If the reason why the west isn't providing more substantial aid is because they are afraid of nuclear war, then losing Ukraine all but guarantees its inevitability. As a result, I find it difficult to describe NATOs actions as rational. It's simply cowardice.
Though nuclear retaliation is a genuinely scary possibility (albeit less likely than the world thinks), the truth is that it's the lesser evil here. I don't want to live in a world where the Taliban has nukes.
Welcome to Politics...I said this a bit ago in other places and got shouted down a little — and I agree, it seems fairly scattered and haphazard.Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
Pakistan is destabilizing as we speak due to a water crisis among other things. They have, what, over a few hundred nukes? If Pakistan collapses, all those nukes now go on the black market and proliferation by unstable actors becomes a much more likely scenario.
I'm not going to speak to the overall ease of access to nukes. But when states with nuclear arms become failed states with nuclear arms it becomes a lot more likely.
::) It's in response to an argument raised raised in the preceding post. It's not trying to start a discussion about Pakistan.It's not actually responsive to anything, though. Like... okay, Pakistan, but that doesn't have anything to do with anything I said?
Second, your argument can easily apply to every instance of a nuclear power bullying non-nuclear countries with impunity since, well, the first time; and nuclear proliferation hasn't happened recently. Why not the Russian-Georgian war, or the Second Chechen war, or the Gulf wars, or the Syrian war, or the US invasion of Afghanistan? Why not Israel and Palestine? Of course, non-nuclear states still bully each other at will based on who is stronger, and have since prehistory.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
NATO’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
the only countries that could conceivably benefit from getting nukes are the Middle East and Moldova.Uh. What?
Perhaps Random Dragon (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8401896;topicseen#msg8401896) was wrong after all.I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
the only countries that could conceivably benefit from getting nukes are the Middle East and Moldova.Uh. What?
Like, you know there's been about a coup a day in central Africa lately, right?
Regardless though, what is a coup leader supposed to do with nukes? It seems like the main threats they face are internal rather than external ones. I find it hard to see how nuking one's own territory will help you stay in power.He could use them as a threat, a you attack me I'll blow the entire place up kind of thing, I mean what use is the territory to a coup leader if he dies so he might as well take it with him to keep the other guy from having it.
Perhaps Random Dragon (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8401896;topicseen#msg8401896) was wrong after all. Can't say I'm happy to hear that news though. The Ukraine war got more press than all the other wars, but at the end of the day it seems like the West is content to just let Russia grind away at Ukraine until it is dust.
I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
You're such a loon.I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
That's fucking rich coming from an alt-right troll.
...but we're definitely drifting. Unless we want to talk about how Ukraine once had nuclear weapons, by default. (And other FSRs, right?)Kazakhstan did. Belarus also did and once gave them up, but has now entered into nuclear sharing agreements with Russia. As far as I know, that's it.
Guess it's time to ask that question I've been wondering about for awhile, have any more Russian generals died or have they finally realized you don't put them on the front lines.
That's not a Russian thing... it is what has been happened with every military for thousands of years. The guys who are conscripted as "cannon fodder" don't have a choice. If you do not obey, you are a traitor and may be killed, and your family may be imprisoned or killed. If you obey, it is just you that will be killed.
Russian law actually forbids using conscripts in combat
I am still not sure how that compares to what Russia is doing, but I meant the Russian conscription that happened about 6 months into the war, where you saw videos of people being grabbed off the streets. Those that resisted the conscription or protested the conscription, probably were sent into the ever-dangerous infantry units. It is a buy-one-get-two bargain for the Russian government, to have a cannon fodder guy and to lose a protestor.No, Russian drafting doesn't work like this. Millions of people received draft summons. Smart people promptly ignored those and to this date, the number of people imprisoned for ignoring a draft summon is ZERO.
I bet they'll start getting more aggressive about it when they finally run out of dumb asses that join willingly.
British Intelligence estimates that 190 thousand men have been either killed or wounded in such a way that they will never fight again.
The further into the war we get the more Russia devolves back to what it was during WWI.We've already seen guns from the Russian Empire being fielded. Pre-WWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZR9PaQkj2MIdk if Ukraine would send special forces all the way to Sudan in the middle of a war where they need all hands on deck. It could be any number of white-skinned mercenary groups who are fighting against Wagner group, e.g. south africans or zimbabweans. Or americans. Or it could even be Ukrainian mercenaries... Or in the funniest twist of fate, Russian mercenaries
So, looks like Ukrainian special forces did an operation in Sudan killing Wagner's fighters. (it is not definitely proven that it is Sudan and Wagner, ofc, but I see Kyiv Post as a reliable source)
_________________________
It will be a long, long war waged in many ways and in many places. Intensity and methods may change but it won't be over until either Ukraine or Russia cease to exist as political entities and probably even beyond that
Idk if Ukraine would send special forces all the way to Sudan in the middle of a war where they need all hands on deck.
I am hearing this a lot and I don't get this logic. The main idea of a war is hurting your enemy. Striking against Russian assets anywhere in the world is exactly the job for special forces. Why would they limit themselves to Ukraine? Especially considering that special forces are harder to use on a battlefield of a full-scale war.UK military logic is warfare is about getting your enemy to do what you want them to do, and ultimately to get them to not want to fight anymore. Sometimes this is about killing your enemy, but there are times when this is counter-productive. E.g. leaving an enemy with no surrender is likely to prolong the fight not end it. Very famous quote from a British officer where he successfully managed to trick the Italians in WWII into thinking the British were going to attack Somaliland instead of Djibouti, when the British were actually planning to attack Djibouti. The expectation was that the Italians would reinforce Somaliland, leaving Djibouti open. Instead the Italians retreated from Somaliland to Djibouti. Hence the quote "I realised now my goal was not to trick the Italians, but to get them to do what we wanted."
A very hard-to-watch documentary about Mariupol. For USA (or VPN) only.
Hard to watch in the sense that you need to set up a VPNA very hard-to-watch documentary about Mariupol. For USA (or VPN) only.
Hard to watch in the sense of morbid/heartbreaking, or hard to watch in the sense of inaccurate/biased? Probably useful to know before giving it a watch.
That's weird. I can't watch it either from the Netherlands. Didn't know USA did that kind of censorshipIt is distribution rights, not censorship.
Russian actress killed in Ukrainian strike on event for troops (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67495384)That's more to do with the timeline of death rather than an editorial stance, the Russian actress was killed in the strike whilst the Ukrainian writer died in hospital after the strike. Beeb can hardly be called pro-russian war
Fresh news from BBC
Victoria Amelina: Ukrainian writer dies after Kramatorsk strike (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66083275)
And some old news from BBC
Aren't those headlines cute? A Russian performing for invaders on a military object in a foreign country getting a missile on her head - killed
A Ukrainian eating in a completely civilian diner getting the same - died.
I am so... sooooooo tired of this kind of stuff during the past years...
Russian actress killed in Ukrainian strike on event for troops (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67495384)That's more to do with the timeline of death rather than an editorial stance, the Russian actress was killed in the strike whilst the Ukrainian writer died in hospital after the strike. Beeb can hardly be called pro-russian war
Fresh news from BBC
Victoria Amelina: Ukrainian writer dies after Kramatorsk strike (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66083275)
And some old news from BBC
Aren't those headlines cute? A Russian performing for invaders on a military object in a foreign country getting a missile on her head - killed
A Ukrainian eating in a completely civilian diner getting the same - died.
I am so... sooooooo tired of this kind of stuff during the past years...
Perhaps, but that dead vs killed thing is rather commonBBC very much tries to avoid overly emotional headlines. It's not a private media company but a state funded one, so they try to avoid clickbait tier headlines. More focused on reporting the news than sensationalising it. Compare that to headlines which have been deliberately underplayed at CNN, e.g. "explosion at refugee camp kills dozens" without mentioning that the explosion was caused by an air strike. Evidently whether you wrote "dozens dead after explosion at refugee camp" or "dozens killed" it's more important to establish the cause of death. And in both cases the BBC makes clear the cause. Especially since as per the previous article, they use "dozens dead as air strike hits ukraine funeral wake" because they were reporting on a case where rescue attempts were ongoing and the total dead was yet to be known. It's fairly standard for BBC editorial policy
Dozens dead as air strike hits Ukraine funeral wake (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/67018505)
I'd very much prefer a "Dozens were killed by a Russian airstrike" type of headline. Headlines have a serious emotional impact.
Manchester attack: 22 dead and 59 hurt in suicide bombing, 23 May 2017In the end there were 22 dead and over 1,000 injured and if you think they choose to write the headline as "22 dead" instead of "22 killed" because the BBC is sympathetic to ISIS I have an edible hat to sell you
Also, I don't even understand why the death of some Russian nobody morale-booster performer deserves an article on BBC. It is not like she was a pop star or something.Because it's news?
in Swedish, the word (or rather its direct cognate I guess) die is not just something a person does themselves but directly tied to killing – we say that "he deaded him" when we say "he killed him" for example.that's an adorable bit of language
Everything is ether dead or dying.
Also what's happening with this war haven't really seen any info recently with the current shit going on in the middle east.
I thought that the West is just too careful, too uncoordinated, and too unprepared. Looking back, I am now sure that It is a deliberate well-calculated strategy to give us just enough (in small doses) so we don't collapse but don't give too much so we can't accidentally win.
This fight was never going to be won through conventional means (because of the differences in production and manpower, and because those sources of production and manpower couldn't be effectively attacked), it was always going to be won through other means and those other means haven't presented themselves yet.(https://i.postimg.cc/yNWkT7DY/image.png)
When the aggressor in a war is unable to progress, it is they who are losing, and it won't be long before the news media stops spinning "Ukraine counterattack stalemating", and starts with "you know, Russia hasn't progressed at all this year, and they started this war". Russia will continue to stockpile manpower or weapons, so they can attempt overwhelming attacks like the recent ones at Kiev and Avdiivka, precisely because they need a win this year. Presumably, the Russian's will find the Ukrainians are dug in as deep as the Russians are.
There is an authoritarian push for dominance in multiple "democratic" nations, and those political battles need to play out.
I thought that the West is just too careful, too uncoordinated, and too unprepared. Looking back, I am now sure that It is a deliberate well-calculated strategy to give us just enough (in small doses) so we don't collapse but don't give too much so we can't accidentally win.
You're vastly overestimating how deep Western stockpiles of a lot of critical munitions are and how much it actually takes to spin production up. Most of the munitions that Ukraine badly needs have spent the last thirty years or more at production levels suitable only for training, which is just enough to expend shells and rockets that are hitting their expiration dates. Even if you could get taxpayers to sign off on it, you rapidly run out of places to put the things. Making things worse, all of NATO's warplans expected a short war - if WW3 ever kicked off, it was generally assumed that the war would be over in six to nine months max even without nukes
The truckers are blockading the border crossings because they think they've been thrown under the bus by government policies favouring the Ukrainian cause. So unless you think the truckers represent the entirety of Poland or that they are protesting on behest of the government, what you said makes no sense.
Meanwhile, for the past two weeks, Ukrainian-Polish border is more or less blockaded by Polish haulers with no trucks allowed to go in or out.
The number of foreigners they can manipulate into joining their military is probably too small to matter, let alone the typical migrant's poor ability to fight in this sort of war. Though, if the Russians can use people as bait to both waste Ukrainian ammunition and spot for indirect fire...Foreigners, convicts, minorities, anyone who won't be missed and can be trusted to endure front line trenches with no rotation without upsetting any families in St Petersburg or Moscow (https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/10/25/russia-putin-is-using-ethnic-minorities-to-fight-in-ukraine)
Do people face any pressure to vote for Putin, or threats if they don't? Or do the elections appear to be totally fair and without coercion?Russian elections are merely "counted" in a "correct" way. Everything else is always democratic-looking.
You might be constripted howeverI'm exempt for several reasons, mainly being female, only men get conscripted.
I was just wondering about that actually, but assumed that in seriousness it wouldn't get to that point. Russian culture is very "traditional" in that regard, isn't it? Women aren't allowed in combat positions in the Russian army, right?This is correct. If they started drafting women into combat, there would have been a shitstorm.
I feel like it would be a turning point in public favor against the war if they tried.
Of course, they also have literally millions of people they can burn through before that would be needed so I don't think we'd see it anyway.
I think counting on a highly corrupt and lgbtphobic regime not throwing you into the meat grinder could be construed as overconfidence.Nah they don't target LGBT people like that (yet?). I highly doubt they are even aware, anyhow. I'm not active on Russian social media.
Guys please stop worrying about me, if someone like me gets drafted it means Russia has basically lost and is "Scraping The Barrel". lmfao
Forbes magazine has a large rebuke for Pro-Russian Republicans.
Also discussed Ukraine's 5th Tank Brigade.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c)
I haven't seen any maps posted recently and was wondering what's going on with the front line.Ongoing meatgrinder in Avdiivka as Putin wants to capture the town before the totally-legit-electionTM that he is "considering" participating to. 1k vatniki are made into sunflower fertilizer per day as they try to storm the same railway over and over.
I haven't seen any maps posted recently and was wondering what's going on with the front line.
You know what I immediately thought was "Theyre defending a coca cola plant?" but apparently its an industrial coke plant. Must be easy to fortify?
If Russia does take Avdiivka, the Russian propaganda will only talk about the importance of the town and the Ukrainians will only talk about how many Russians died there.
What is the symbolic importance of Avdiivka?I think it's the same as Bakhmut. Self-justifying meme where it's symbolically important because Russian high command decided it was important and so now it's politically imperative to capture it otherwise they're embarassing themselves and Putin by ignoring the thing they said was important. So they spent all of these resources to take it and now they have to take it because they spent so much resources trying. It's also next to Donetsk and part of the Donbass oblast they're trying to say they own so it's pretty embarassing to say you own it but don't even control it
Industrial zones have proven extremely resistant defensive structures since the siege of Mariupol afaik. Not only that, the plant is surrounded by fields in the low ground, where the defenders have unobstructed view. You try to sneak armor or prison meat toward the plant, they get spotted by drones and become mortar magnet.Not to mention some of the older industrial buildings were built with wartime survivability in mind. Azovstal was constructed with bunkers and tunnels by the Soviets. In China it was pretty cool seeing how a lot of offices and commercial centres were built on top of Mao-era networks of tunnels with naval style blast doors capable of resisting nuclear attack. Like you'd be walking around a modern mega mall and if you went down the stairs it was like you were walking in the 1950s. Some countries like Singapore still like making their buildings resilient to attack, but even then, any large concrete building is a useful place to place snipers/mortars/artillery and proves similarly resistant to artillery
We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition, and cashflow problems.
the outlook looks grim.the war is grim but the outcome is pretty much decided at this point. The variable is, how much moscow will depopulate before they give up that absurd chase.
Avdiivka is right next to Donetsk. Over what is now nearly a decade of fighting it's been fortified like few other places. It pins the front line and checks the enemy logistics in the neighbouring population centre. It's an important military target whose loss will be likely permanent, and a major setback for the defenders.
We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition, and cashflow problems.
I share Strongpoint's trepidation expressed earlier in the thread. Without a major policy shift in the West, the outlook looks grim.
After leaving Kherson, the public, instead of soberly assessing the situation, began, with the active help of the media, military correspondents, and all other available means, to suck out the “positivity” from any bullshit, often demonstrating just the opposite – complete fuck ups. A typical example of this, again, was in my TG – a video with grandiose music from the 127th division, in which Ukrainian grenade launchers are allowed to approach tanks at 50 meters. At the 10th month of the war. Unteachable. Moreover, no one is embarrassed by the fact that in the frame it is clear that the tank missed with a return shot – the shell passed over the trench and exploded off-screen. Loud and prolonged applause. Pew Pew! We attack!
Separate fierce fuck-up are the constantly popping up videos from the 1st Army Corps of the DPR showing firing from tanks from closed positions, practiced on a regular basis. The horror here, of course, is not that tanks shoot from closed positions, they can do it, a good tankman should be able to do it, moreover, tankmen were trained for this in 2016-2017 and the KCPN carried manuals for this on the topic. The horror is that with the silent catastrophic lack of shells in artillery (you can’t talk about it, because then someone will have to answer for it, but no one wants to), it was decided to replace artillery with tanks on a regular basis.
In reality, such shooting is an emergency temporary measure in a situation where it is necessary to cover a large concentration of the enemy, and there is no free artillery at hand or it is impossible to use it because of the operational counter-battery fire, to which the tank, due to thick armor, is much less susceptible than self-propelled artillery guns and, especially, the towed guns in which the crew and ammunition load are not covered at all.
The task of the tank is to destroy enemy tanks with direct fire in a tank battle with such “crowbars”. If – you lose the barrel, you won’t hit anything, the enemy will destroy you first. And the survivability of the barrel of a tank gun, it is much less than that of a rifled howitzer. And the tanks that are doing all this are no longer new, the barrels have already been used, so to destroy targets from closed positions, a large consumption of shells is required, which wears out the barrels even more. In the LPR, still very much before the SMO, there was already a situation at one time when in one of the division’s tank barrels were shot to the point where further training firing at the range would deprive the tanks of combat value in the future, so the unit at the range began to shoot from 14.5 -mm inserts with cartridges from the KPVT machine gun.
But in combat, you can’t shoot like that. And the guns on the old T-64/72/80 tanks, the old models of the 2A46 gun, they can’t be changed without dismantling the turret. That is, we are now methodically putting out of action the last surviving tanks of the People’s Militia Corps, trophied tanks captured in a tolerable condition, and those removed from storage, are all urgently taken to the front.
It is understandable when the obsolete 100-mm Rapira smoothbore guns were assigned to support the infantry. They are not very relevant against modern tanks, so can be used to “finish off” the resource of barrels with high-explosive fragmentation shells before decommissioning. But to ruin our tanks … For what?
In the end, a “counter-battery fire” against such missile terror by searching for and destroying systems with our current resources will give almost nothing. And that’s exactly what the enemy is counting on. He is counting on the fact that politicians, having seen enough of burning city blocks, will put pressure on the military – “Drive the ukrops away from the city!” And the 1st Armed Corps will continue to kill the remnants of their infantry at the Ukrainian fortified areas around Donetsk.
In other sectors of the front, the Russian command does not need such a goading, as it voluntarily drives to slaughter the last remnants of the infantry, no longer very combat-ready due to previous losses. The Russian military has an incredible talent for turning any village with a couple of landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their own, not enemy, units are ground. Why? Yes, because “BUSV”, the Combat Charter of the Ground Forces, these people do not open and read almost ever. And more than any “Javelins” and “HIMARS”, more than any “NATO satellite groups” fighting against us is the Combat Charter of our own Ground Forces, on which our valiant command wanted to shit. And ukrops [Ukrainians] – they read it and creatively processed it, taking into account the available new technologies.
In the text about radio communications, I described the main problem of command and control in the Russian army, due to which the army cannot really advance, cannot maneuver, and cannot even fully repel enemy attacks. Nothing larger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” in the RF Armed Forces can be controlled as a single organism. And, of course, in this situation, the battalion commanders and company commanders of these “remnants” become well-deserved heroes, who, if possible, drag all the shit on their own backs. Although more often, alas, they don’t. And they are buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, each organized worse than the previous one, we still capture another piece of land and collect their rotten remains.
From the fact that the Russian army can do nothing except for, bleeding, capture another village while surrendering a district center or an entire region on the other flank, the Russian army made an amazing conclusion – let’s take more villages! And arranged the maximum possible Verduns along the entire front line, including the very infamous Pavlovka in the DPR. And, of course, Bakhmut. How could it be without it? Why not kill the last remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not possible at all. These fucking bastards need to get positive motives for the news somewhere! Here, we freed another 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the first to report on the complete liberation of the village gets an order.
I think that the Ukrainian command later, already in captivity, will give these people the appropriate awards. Because on the eve of the winter offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is almost impossible to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with some more significant service than killing the remnants of our infantry and the remnants of our tanks.
I do get the feeling that this is turning out to be like the Winter War... embarrasing Russian defeats early on, but Russians eventually rallying by raw force of numbers.If the Iran-Iraq War or WWI is anything to go by, defence in depth and artillery has rendered human wave assaults a futile waste of life
I was concerned early on about it turning out like that, and I'm guessing I'm not the only one...
LW, I remember those posts of Murz's, from back when he was blogging them - which was a year ago. The point here is that the russians of today are not the russians from back then (fuck it, I'm not capitalising that).The main point is not that we can all fall asleep because Russia's military is dead. The main point is that they've had years to adapt and learn from their failures, and yet they are still doing the exact same thing as when they started the war: using their superior numbers to attack wherever Ukraine is strongest, in order to capture another fortified rubbish dump or coke plant. Whereas Ukrainian military objectives target Russian ability to wage war, Russian military objectives target lines on a map that do not affect Ukraine's ability to fight. Ukraine will blow up bridges on the Syvash or artillery depots, strike barracks full of troops, railway lines or supply depots, target Russian artillery whilst the Russians continue to give medals to their officers whenever they make a new mini-Verdun.
A year ago they were still scrambling to damage control after they found themselves fighting a different war than the one they were prepared for. Now they've settled for what looks like a sustainable routine that they can keep eroding the defenders' with for years to come.
So what if they claw their way in a dog park or a coke plant at a time - they're still advancing and they're currently at little risk of ever losing what they gain. Barring sudden implosion for reasons as of today not apparent, or the West stopping patting themselves on their backs for how much they've already done, and getting their shit together.
If by 2025 or even 2030 there's russian army at the whole length of the Dnipro line that may or may not be enough of a victory for them, but it certainly won't be much of one for the Ukrainians.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Army produced around 14,000 155mm rounds a month in government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants. In December 2022, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army was looking to increase production to 20,000 rounds per month by the spring and 40,000 rounds per month by 2025.The greatest risk for Ukraine remains political, because otherwise time is on their side. As much as Russia improves and recovers from its initial blunders, the relative gap in strength between it and Ukraine decreases.
Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.
The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.
Bush said the service now aims to boost its monthly production to 36,000 by March, 60,000 by September, 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025, and 100,000 by the end of calendar 2025 — two and half times more than Wormuth’s year-old goal.
As part of this push, the Army has added shifts, bought robots, and expanded its ammunition plants, Bush said.
The Army’s investment has also been inexpensive relative to other Army programs, where $3 million can be considered a cheap price for certain advanced weapons, like hypersonic missiles.
The Army funded its original planned increase from 14,000 to 24,000 shells with $1.45 billion. In November, it announced a further $1.5 billion.
^ I think that's too rose-tinted a view of the situation. Like, most of those things you say the russian's don't target, they definitely do. Many of the faults of the russian military you describe can be also applied to the defenders. And there's definitely room to argue about how the gap changes.Well I don't think you're wrong (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/ukraine-ammunition-depot-reportedly-hit-in-wave-of-russian-missile-attacks), I also maintain that Russia wasting its most modern equipment and swathes of manpower attacking exactly where Ukraine expects them to (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/23/the-russians-sent-three-brigades-toward-avdiivka-just-two-came-back/) is the best of all worse outcomes
But I think trying to convince you otherwise would be playing too much into the hands of russian propaganda, amplifying their message du jour. And hell, who's to say I'm not suffering from its distortions myself. So I shan't. I'd just urge everyone not to grow complacent with how things are.
Most of the losses occurred in the first month of the Avdiivka battle starting in early October. After a few weeks, desperate Russian commanders switched up their tactics, and sent in the infantry on foot.I really can't say I disagree with you at all, especially in regards to complacency. The EU has been lagging behind non-stop and the USA is getting distracted with election season coming up. But I don't think this is a rosy-tinted view on Russian military strength (which is still considerable, and its artillery production is still immensely superior in quantity). It's more the belief that the biggest threat to Ukraine is EU/USA losing interest, or continuing to adopt a policy of "supply the bare minimum needed for Ukraine to survive, not win." Either of which could allow Russia to actually force Ukraine on the defensive.
The vehicle toll “surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle,” Frontelligence reported, “making it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses.”
Losing at least 211 vehicles and 13,000 soldiers killed and wounded amounts to the “complete annihilation of five battalions,” according to Frontelligence. “This represents significant losses in both equipment and personnel, considering the achieved results.”
The roughly dozen regiments and brigades the Kremlin has staged around Avdiivka have advanced a mile or so north and south of the city but haven’t made inroads into the city itself—or cut off its main supply lines.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expressed three wishes last month: he sought $61.4bn in funding from Washington for Ukraine’s war effort next year, $20.5bn from the European Union, and an EU invitation to start membership talks.
Zelenskyy asked for his wishes to come true before Christmas, but it now seems possible he will not get any of them.
On Monday, the director of the Office of Management and Budget at the White House wrote to Congress, saying 97 percent of approved funding for Ukraine had been spent.
“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Shalanda D Young wrote in her letter.
“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money – and nearly out of time.”
Cutting funding would “kneecap” Ukraine, putting its forces on the defensive and possibly on the retreat, Young wrote.
Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
They're more borrowing/bartering than buying. It's not sustainable.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165)
Russian priorities right there.Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
They're more borrowing/bartering than buying. It's not sustainable.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165)
Yeah, hard times are ahead for Russian education, healthcare, etc. But they'll have money for war.
It is like an old Russian joke:
"Daddy! Prices for vodka went up! Does it mean you'll drink less?"
"No, son. It means you'll eat less"
Russia launched 110 missiles at us this night\morning. I guess they are really mad after we destroyed their warship a few days ago.At least 31 dead, 160+ injured (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-massive-air-attack-ukraine-least-10-dead-kyiv-2023-12-29/) with a missile also entering Poland's airspace. I wonder what "threshold" Russia would have to cross before NATO chiefs decided WWIII was an acceptable risk
Why are we letting russia get away with an invasion like that?Because they still own the marginal barrel of oil which Europe still indirectly buys and burns.
Why are we letting russia get away with an invasion like that?
Because some Western politicians (in a broader sense, including business, political movements, the public - everyone who influences what countries do) directly profit from business with Russia and\or the ongoing war.Also more directly, lots of Western politicians were/are funded by Russian oligarchs, or lobbied by accountants/lawyers/bankers who are friends thereof
I'm not, and I'm going to spend these millions of dollars I found in a suit case in a subway storage locker completely by accident to convince you of itOur health secretary once said he had no knowledge of the millions of pounds worth of shares he had been gifted by a friend who owned a company he diverted billions of public funds into via PPE contracts
Our health secretary once said he had no knowledge of the millions of pounds worth of shares he had been gifted by a friend who owned a company he diverted billions of public funds into via PPE contractsGiven general levels of incompetence and obliviousness... it's easy enough to believe from pretty much any one of them.
What's the dark grey area in the middle represent?
Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?
Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?jailPrison. It's the US policy. (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/everything-you-need-know-about-military-selective-service-system.html#:~:text=Those%20men%20were%20offered%20amnesty,or%20a%20combination%20of%20both.)
As I understand, many parts of Europe have the more humane "make them work twice as long in non-military service". When I visited Europe in the mid 2000s, the guys working at the Youth Hostel were serving their mandatory non-military service. So they can help in logistics.
I'm reminded of the famous US slogan, which I may be misquoting: "Freedom ain't Free"
The only people that are going to criticize Ukraine mobilizing its citizens are the same people that are going to blame Ukraine for not surrendering already.Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?jailPrison. It's the US policy. (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/everything-you-need-know-about-military-selective-service-system.html#:~:text=Those%20men%20were%20offered%20amnesty,or%20a%20combination%20of%20both.)
As I understand, many parts of Europe have the more humane "make them work twice as long in non-military service". When I visited Europe in the mid 2000s, the guys working at the Youth Hostel were serving their mandatory non-military service. So they can help in logistics.
I'm reminded of the famous US slogan, which I may be misquoting: "Freedom ain't Free"
I am more from the "strip them from citizenship and let those freedom-loving people go to any country ready to accept them" camp but both that and the jail option will be treated by a huge chunk of the world as "See, Ukraine is no better than Russia, it also goes for forced mobilization!"
Wait really? Russia gave up on the infrastructure strikes? When did this happen?
I saw a news headline about some people in Moscow not having heat right now, but what's actually happening? I know Ukraine has hit some stuff in Russia, but they haven't caused any significant damage to Russian infrastructure have they?
The researchers called on Western lawmakers to step up restrictions on countries acting as third-party sellers, and to encourage the private sector to regulate itself better to comply with sanctions.
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.I wonder if it had anything to do with Russian police raiding warehouses to search for draft dodgers to nab (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/01/russian-police-raid-warehouse-in-search-of-war-recruits-reports-a83282)
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.
If it is anti-government partisans, I'm disappointed in the choice of target tbh. This does nothing to hurt the war effort, all it does is inconvenience people and destroy thousands of items for no good reason.Oh, I would not be so quick to discount the harm that destroying a commercial warehouse could do to the war effort.
Eh. Fair enough. I'd still have picked something different and/or more directly military.
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.
As far as I know, it is merely a version of ho the fire started. Also, the fire happened in a warehouse of Russian "Amazon" that treats its workers far worse than the real Amazon (yes, it is possible) so it may be revenge not against the government but against the company
If it is anti-government partisans, I'm disappointed in the choice of target tbh. This does nothing to hurt the war effort, all it does is inconvenience people and destroy thousands of items for no good reason.
...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".Most of the younger generation dislikes the current government, from my experiences. A crapshoot with anyone older than, idk, 25 or 30 or so.
On the bright side, it might just give the justification that some newRussianEthnic Ukrainian-Russian Army General needs to convince his new regiment ofconscriptsEthnic Ukrainian-Russians todesertresume fighting for their TRUE nation.
It has possibilities with regional governments. And even if few Russians can find their Inner Ukrainian, the fact that at least some Russian officials have to take it as a threat might prove useful.
...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".
This short video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeB8x9ljGwE) gives a good breakdown of why that plane probably had no prisoners and no s-300 missiles on it.
new update: Some of the names on the passenger list have been confirmed as already swapped on January 3rd.::) Yeah, just Russia being liars like usual.
Seems like anytime Russia says anything like this it's a lie, not sure why they think anyone will believe them when they try shit like this after all this.
"Ukraine is buried in its lies regarding the Il-76 disaster," ...*cough*MH-17*cough*
Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-court-rule-whether-russia-violated-international-treaties-ukraine-2024-01-31/) I am so surprised (not)Actually, Ukraine kinda won.
In what way?Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-court-rule-whether-russia-violated-international-treaties-ukraine-2024-01-31/) I am so surprised (not)Actually, Ukraine kinda won.
The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has made changes to the laws that govern the country's armed forces, to grant servicemen the authority to use “firearms, special equipment, combat, and other equipment” when performing their duties, as reported by the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty.
According to the document, the use of weapons against citizens is permitted even in cases that only involve administrative offenses.
The new amendments specify that servicemen will not be held accountable for damages resulting from shootings conducted “in accordance with joint military statutes.”
____________
This one is very worrisome for me. Belarus is stable and has a massive police force to deal with any protests. Why would Lukashenko do this then? My answer is that he is planning to do something so outrageously unpopular that unrest is guaranteed. This means either
A) Belarus will join the war
B) A huge chunk of sovereignty will be given up to Russia, up to full annexation.
My mom always thought Zelensky was an idiot, comparing him to Trump. If she's right, perhaps this is just the result of a petty disagreement. We all saw what Trump did with his loyalty tests.Your mom's impression is basically consistent with mine.
it really looks like some kind of uprising, maybe even a coup, is... not outside the realm of extreme plausibility.
for once I don't think I can see a way that Russia could be behind it.For one, it could be spreading and reinforcing the meme of a coup through its social media trolls. Sowing discord is what they do.
I would think that the situation in Avdiivka makes this a bad time - about a month ago would have been much better.Fair.
If Zaluzhny becomes involved in politics against Zelensky, it will be a good thing. Zaluzhny has been in involved in the war against Russia since the beginning and he will not sell out Ukraine to Russia, which is exactly what any other candidate running against Zelensky is likely to do.Spoiler effect not making everything worse for once...
Some relevant sociology (https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1335&page=1)62% is not that bad considering the situation. It is easy to blame the leader when the future is uncertain, but there are also Ukrainian politicians and businessmen who see Zelensky as a direct competitor, and there are pro-Russian people and pro-Russian funding... These will all be sources of discontent for Ukraine in that next election. This is why I see Zaluzhny as a good political competitor for Zelensky, the Ukrainians would be getting someone who is fighting for them either way.
Note how "popular" Zelensky was just before the war. He is slowly falling back there.
The first part of Putin's interview with Tucker is pure comedy gold in the genre of pseudohistory. I think Putin misunderstands the audience. He should have started with - "Trump is good, woke is bad. Russia is fighting to liberate Ukraine from woke neo-nazi." not bore them with Rurik and stuff.Not as many things to mock from my perspective as I wished, alas. Still a lot.
Zelensky dismissed commander-in-chief Zaluzhny who was very popular and replaced him with a guy who is quite unpopular (especially in the army) but politically loyal to Zelensky.Actually, it makes perfect sense.
Freaking wonderful. Just what we need during this stage of the war.
Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
I don't consider these traditional values, at least in the same sense as the far-right uses that term. I don't need tradition in order to not abuse those close to me.Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
I don't consider these traditional values, at least in the same sense as the far-right uses that term. I don't need tradition in order to not abuse those close to me.Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
Our traditional values are conformity and reactionarism.
I'm sorry, my Ukrainian friends, but Trump works for Putin.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html)
Trumpspeak: Don't do [useless banter that means nothing]I'm sorry, my Ukrainian friends, but Trump works for Putin.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html)
Expect aid money to be paid back at some point? Working for Putin.
Biden withholding a $1B loan to Ukraine until a prosecutor is fired? _________
So yes, this helps Putin.
I was unaware of Biden withholding any sort of funding to Ukraine, so please provide a link.
So yes, this helps Putin.
How?I was unaware of Biden withholding any sort of funding to Ukraine, so please provide a link.
https://oversight.house.gov/timeline/ukraine-11/biden-firing-ukraine-prosecutor-clip/
Clip is from January 2018. Threatening to withhold loan happened during Obama admin.
Sir, please take your petty grievances against Biden out of this thread. You are citing an incident in 2018, when Biden was not even President. This war started in 2022.
If Trump wishes to prove me wrong by throwing his weight behind the War in Ukraine, instead of against it, I would be glad to see it.
Sir, please take your petty grievances against Biden out of this thread. You are citing an incident in 2018, when Biden was not even President. This war started in 2022.
If Trump wishes to prove me wrong by throwing his weight behind the War in Ukraine, instead of against it, I would be glad to see it.
It describes events from Obama admin.
Crimea amnesia?
Take your petty grievances out, then.Just wanted to acknowledge and apologize for not respecting your very real and very legitimate concerns about Senile Old Biden. But that is not relevant to the discussion of whom supports Ukraine. I mean, Biden might not know where Ukraine IS, but he has been steered towards liking Ukraine, and that is good for purposes of supporting Ukraine.
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Peace likely means that Russia gets to keep what they stole, emboldening Russia to invade anyone else that is not in Nato.
Biden is anti-war, his administration is very focused on avoiding escalation. Trump is not anti-war, he is just Pro-Russian. If Trump would be in charge now with all that Israel stuff, the US would already be involved in a war with Iran. At the very least, strikes against Iranian proxies would be far more frequent.Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.WTH do you mean by "letting Ukraine bleed"? It sounds like you are saying "Ukraine is fighting because American masters told them to." which is frequently used by Russian propaganda. Or do you mean that without American assistance Russia will quickly win and the war will stop?
WTH do you mean by "letting Ukraine bleed"? It sounds like you are saying "Ukraine is fighting because American masters told them to." which is frequently used by Russian propaganda. Or do you mean that without American assistance Russia will quickly win and the war will stop?He's saying it's in American interest to weaken Russia by keeping them engaged in a prolonged, costly war. More than having Ukraine win. Hence the support that keeps you going, but not much beyond that.
EJ’s a dyed in the woolFTFYRepublicanRINO, brah.
Ukrainian army will become something like that without assistance.I saw an ukrainian Bradley IFV take on a russian T-80 and win, and there's nothing like that fascist piece of junk wailing helplessly before exploding, launching its turret in the startosphere, carbonizing its own crew in the process, to keep you keenly aware that the issue of the war is, to this day, still to be determined.
Zelenskyy appoints former Berkut commander who dispersed Euromaidan crowds to leader position of Territorial Defence. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/11/7441370/)It is a politically charged appointment but it is really not a big deal, Zelensky appointed way more controversial guys during his term.
Extremely suspicious...
EDIT: Article mentions he might have been the only one from Internal Defense ministry willing to negotiate with protestors. Not sure how much or how little that's worth...
There is no continuum between RTG and nuclear bomb. Absolutely none. You cannot turn an RTG into a nuclear bomb. None of the components are equivalent. Not the nuclear material, not the casing, not the thermoelectric couplers that make an RTG an RTG. An RTG will under no circumstances behave like a nuclear bomb. A nuclear reactor ALSO won't behave like a nuclear bomb, but at least there you could theoretically continue to enrich the fuel (assuming it's not a US Navy-esque high-power-density highly-enriched-uranium reactor) to maintain some small amount of commonality.That was my initial response as well, but before I posted, I realized that it looks like Starver literally meant that RITEGs contain less fuel, by mass, than nuclear bombs. Which is literally true, even though it is a completely pointless comparison to make.
So no, there are no nukes floating about in space. It would be noticed if somebody had put one there; it's not that easy to hide what a space launch is sending up there really aren't that many of them compared to resources and means available to determine what was launched. Noticed and dealt with either loudly or quietly.
NavalnyGuy had massive balls going back to Mother Russia after being poisoned. He had to know he was setting himself up for a death sentence. I wonder what was the purpose in his mind.was murderedsuddenly died in a Russian prison.
What can I say? He was brave and he loved his country. But his death is inconsequential for Russian politics.
Guy had massive balls going back to Mother Russia after being poisoned. He had to know he was setting himself up for a death sentence. I wonder what was the purpose in his mind.
FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.In the West we are pretty much not told any of that in the media. People generally only know that he opposed Putin, so he must be great - rarely does anyone think to ask "from which direction?"
But he was very racist against Central Asians. He said he would deport them from Moscow, ffs. And he basically would do nothing about the oligarchs.
"from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
But he was very racist against Central Asians. He said he would deport them from Moscow, ffs. And he basically would do nothing about the oligarchs.
I cannot say you are wrong. If you do move to Europe, there will be folks hating Russians. But there will be just as many or hopefully more folks understanding your decision to leave, and respecting that.It's mostly a vocal minority from what I can tell? And it's not really the kind of people I would want to associate with regardless. I didn't choose to be born here.
I will, even though sometimes I might sound harsh and call for uprising.
I am still aware that not all people are born to be warriors, and I guess that's a good thing.
Love respect.
I mean yeah Navalny would be better than Putin but in the same sense being punched is better than being strangled. If I could press a button to make one of his underlings who share his ideology to come into power instantly, I would, but it's far from my ideal either."from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
It's mostly a vocal minority from what I can tell?I hope so. It used to be. Society is crazy polarized. Vocal minorities have been turning into vocal not-so minorities recently in the Western world, with populist politicians, and populist influencers giving them a larger stage than they should have, and people buying their shit as if it tasted like candy.
"from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
If Navalny was a president, Ukraine wouldn't exist anymore (or be in a much worse shape). Navalny's Russia would have a stronger less corrupt army, stronger and less corrupt economy and better relations with the West, making the war far easier for them.I'd have to rewatch that discussion to make sure I got this right, but from memory his main point of contention with Girkin was that he was against the war.
Navalny certainly was never "against the war" in and of itselfThat's almost literally what he said in that debate when they started talking about Donbas.
What we're both saying is that he supported the ideology behind the war. If his position in 2017 was that Russia should focus on internal issues before invading Ukraine, then, setting aside for the moment that he was a politician who would say whatever worked, the most likely conclusion is that, if he had been in power, he would have focused on internal issues and then invaded Ukraine, from a stronger position. Just like Strong Sad said.Navalny certainly was never "against the war" in and of itselfThat's almost literally what he said in that debate when they started talking about Donbas.
If his position in 2017 was that Russia should focus on internal issues before invading UkraineIt wasn't. Listen to the debate.
It wasn't. Listen to the debate.Look, Navalny's political party that he founded literally calls for the reintegration of the territories of the USSR and Russian Empire. He endorsed this platform. I don't know what else to tell you.
I don't know what else to tell you.This discussion:
You made a strong claim: that he was never against the war. There's a clear counterexample to this in his discussion with Girkin, where he explicitly says otherwise.Okay, so, you're just misunderstanding my claim. I said he was never '"against the war" in and of itself'. As in, he may have opposed going to war in favor of domestic issues in the context of what he perceived to be a broken Russia, but it isn't for Ukraine's sake, he was absolutely not at any point opposed to Russian imperial ambition as a concept, but a matter of priorities. Opposing the war in practice for domestic reasons is not being against it in and of itself.
"What he said about the war" was literally a propaganda effort to appeal to westerners, such as you, and Russian dissidents in order to improve his party's standing both globally and among the anti-war youth demographic at home.You can't know that, can you?
Ten years? Honestly, it looks like instead of angrily posting on forums you could happily live out your last, because you have no concerns in the world beyond someone, somewhere waging a war.*scratches his head in confusion* This one is a weird judgment of my character
EDIT: X now says the suspension was an error of the automatic defense system of the platform. The account has been unsuspended.And I'm the queen of Bhutan.
EDIT: X now says the suspension was an error of the automatic defense system of the platform. The account has been unsuspended.And I'm the queen of Bhutan.
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
True, but the majority of American citizens are more than happy to save a one-time $100 payment today but have to spend $1000 in 10 years. Because apparently they can't see the long term cost of not preventing aggressive international behavior as being more than the short-term cost. Congress should say: look US population, it's in your best interest to stop this nonsense, because it really is going to cost us more in the future*.This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.
The current US culture just isn't interested in stamping out injustice - or I should say, they only care about what they perceive as injustices to themselves, not to other people.
It's all very disappointing.
*The cynic in me, though, is that Congress itself just doesn't care - they don't care about long-term success and stability, just short-term profit.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.
It's all very disappointing (repeated for emphasis).
*snip*
This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.The representatives answer to their constituents come next election. During the term they're expected to make decisions on their own, to the best of their ability and understanding of how to further the interests of the people they represent. They can explain their choices later, as they campaign for reelection.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.At the beginning of this month the financial aid for the next four years was approved by the EU. So at least in this respect we're ahead.
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
American politics are slightly more complex than that.
And Iran is not an ally of Russia, it merely profits from selling weapons. Sadly Russia has money and tech to offer.
True, but the majority of American citizens are more than happy to save a one-time $100 payment today but have to spend $1000 in 10 years. Because apparently they can't see the long term cost of not preventing aggressive international behavior as being more than the short-term cost. Congress should say: look US population, it's in your best interest to stop this nonsense, because it really is going to cost us more in the future*.This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.
The current US culture just isn't interested in stamping out injustice - or I should say, they only care about what they perceive as injustices to themselves, not to other people.
It's all very disappointing.
*The cynic in me, though, is that Congress itself just doesn't care - they don't care about long-term success and stability, just short-term profit.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.
It's all very disappointing (repeated for emphasis).
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
I said "against sending more aid to Ukraine", meaning, think we have sent enough aid to Ukraine, total, cumulatively, not worded as "we are sending the right amount of money to Ukraine and should continue sending it at the same rate", but explicitly worded as "the US has done enough for Ukraine", which polls at about 55% nationally.Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
[citation needed]
Every reputable poll I can find has "US aid (before the gridlock) is where it should be" and "the US should be sending more aid" outperform "the US is doing too much" be a supermajority. The "most Americans want to cut aid" narrative is being spread by eliminating one of the first two options (each about 30%), then declaring that the last one (about 40%) is the clear winner.
Again, citation is needed.If you meant me, no, I hadn't even seen that one, but it also supports my point.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/08/about-half-of-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/
I think this one is the basis of your claim but it doesn't have the question worded as you claim.
"Of course every poll has different numbers, but also my poll is the only one that matters."Uh, that's not what I said, I said "every poll has different numbers but they're all basically in the same direction, and I cited more than one."
Congress should pass aid to Ukraine, and Americans should want to have Congress pass aid to Ukraine. When has campaigning for the government to do something ever become illegitimate because the majority currently may or may not disagree? If the majority of Americans wanted to reinstate segregation would you be in here pontificating about how it should go ahead and happen?No, and I didn't say it was "illegitimate" to want the government to do something, either. In that specific case, Congress couldn't do that anyway because it would be unconstitutional, but if there was enough of a supermajority in favor of segregation to amend the Constitution, and the Constitutional process to do so was initiated, I would be saying that you shouldn't be surprised, and for those of us who dislike segregation to sit around and complain about how the politicians are bad and wrong for doing what their constituents elected them for instead of doing something about it (whether leaving, organizing an opposition, or campaigning for secession in anti-segregation states or areas) would be stupid.
Strongpoint's poll shows 47:31 "not enough/about right" to "too much" support to Ukraine, so no, not all polls point in the same direction.I disagree with that framing because, as I said, saying that the level is "about right" is NOT saying that there should be more. I specifically said that polls show people feel there should not be more.
UK sanctioned... the staff of the prison in which Navalny was murdered. *hysterical laughter*.To be honest, it's hard to work out what proportional direct hostile action the UK could get away with, against Russia. This may only be nominally performative[1], and I agree that it's laughable, but it's arguably better than doing absolute zip.
This is the problem, IMO. Unwillingness or inability to hit Russia with harmful hostile actions. Throwing money and military hardware at Ukraine won't be sufficient. Even with massive Western help, we will run out of manpower and\or political stability long before Russia will.
(And hey, Siberia isn't bad at all!)One of the places in the world that's memetically terrible to the point it's known across the globe and multigenerationally as somewhere-you-don't-want-to-live isn't bad at all, huh. Old dumping ground of the USSR. A place with a population density roughly equivalent to Montana (which sucks significantly due to there not being anyone there).
Westerners really exaggerate how shitty it is, really.(And hey, Siberia isn't bad at all!)One of the places in the world that's memetically terrible to the point it's known across the globe and multigenerationally as somewhere-you-don't-want-to-live isn't bad at all, huh. Old dumping ground of the USSR. A place with a population density roughly equivalent to Montana (which sucks significantly due to there not being anyone there).
*holds up sign saying "blink twice if you need help"*
No one not being coerced would say that with any seriousness, heh. It's like saying afghanistan's a nice place for a summer vacation :P
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.
Mmm hmm.
That's a lot of words to avoid saying "Look, Trump supports stealing hundreds of thousands of children. Why do you oppose that?"
I have friends who like living in Montana, so I'd believe someone could like living in Siberia.(2nd) Captain Vasili Borodin of Red October stated that he wanted to retire to Montana. (Not possible (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Retirony), in the film. My book's elsewhere, so can't check if he also said it in that, though I think (from memory) that at he would at least get the opportunity to do so, at the expense of another.)
In fact, I'd probably like living there if it wasn't, you know, Russia.
I bet the cost of living's real cheap.
Put down the crack pipe, please.
Russian nationalist war blogger Andrej Morozov has apparently comitted suicide after being forced to remove a post on Telegram about the high Russian death toll for the 5 month battle to occupy Avdiivka (he stated 16000 Russian soldiers were killed and 300 armoured vehicles were lost.
His message gave rise to severe critisism by high ranking Russian propagandists, who accused the blogger, who has more than 100000 followers, of slander.
Today, several sources reported that Morozov is dead. According to his lawyer, Maxim Pashkov, he shot himself. He says the reason for his death is can be found in the many Telegram messages he left prior to his death, accusing his superiours of forcing him to remove messages about high casualties, and accusing generals of sacrificing thousands of soldiers just so they can be decorated and promoted.
My reverse image searching tells me that the Shrimp is an ASM Val. Very interesting, I haven't heard of this gun before. Thank you for sharing this photo.
So do the police or whoever makes these arrests actually believe they are doing the right thing, or are they just given heaps of cash, or are they also afraid what might happen if they don't make the arrests, or do they just like making people suffer?
I can't wrap my head around this.
People who were arrested for placing flowers at memorials for Navalny have been sentenced to join the army and will be sent to Ukraine.I can't seem to find any evidence of this, can you give a source?
Russian cops are corrupt, the bribes they take allow them to live an upper class lifestyle. I know this because I used to provide expensive services for one. I think they abandoned the concept of doing the right thing a long time ago.
Put down the crack pipe, please.
Mmm hmm.
Wanna tell me what this is, right here?Spoiler: Captured "Shrimp" (click to show/hide)
Can't find the article I read earlier today, but instead my newspaper has written a somewhat more extensive report on it.People who were arrested for placing flowers at memorials for Navalny have been sentenced to join the army and will be sent to Ukraine.I can't seem to find any evidence of this, can you give a source?
Looks like a broken image to me.Nothing seems to be wrong with it, SFAICT. Seems (without opening it with a more analytical file-reader than I have immediately at hand) to be perfectly standard image-data.
Broken for me too, might be a Firefox thing? It breaks a few random bits and bobs across the web.
Though, to my eyes, it's just a gun and I don't know enough to recognise it as a specific type. Well, it's certainly not a bolt-action rifle (which I've held/wielded/slung a movie-prop version of, e.g., in an actual movie), but not much beyond that.
Broken for me too, might be a Firefox thing? It breaks a few random bits and bobs across the web.
According to the information made available, these links, which could include images or videos, will expire after 24 hours and subsequently become inaccessible.Too many were using Discord to host stuff for use else where.
Yeah, it's a Discord thingThanks for linking that article Ziusudra. I didn't know Discord was making those changes.Quote from: https://piunikaweb.com/2023/10/20/discord-file-hosting-ending-this-year-what-you-need-to-know/According to the information made available, these links, which could include images or videos, will expire after 24 hours and subsequently become inaccessible.Too many were using Discord to host stuff for use else where.
It loads for me.lol
Can't wait for you to blame Biden for your image not loading, and how images were served better under Trump.
When exactly did the war start?February 2014 is the usual cited date, being the time when Russia annexed the Crimea. The DPR and LPR formed shortly afterward.
Ah gotcha. Thanks for the clarification regarding the firearm.My reverse image searching tells me that the Shrimp is an ASM Val. Very interesting, I haven't heard of this gun before. Thank you for sharing this photo.
(Rarer weapon than a Val. The extra siderails makes it a SR-3MP, hence 'Shrimp.' Like anything decent made in Russia, they can't make hardly any of them. And, as you'd expect it, these are reserved for basically his bodyguard and murder units. They do look almost like Vals, though, so calling it one isn't far off.)
(..That particular one was captured, and as I mentioned, you don't see these units fighting in Ukraine anymore. They buggered off to leave the dying to the serfs.)
Gender-inclusive demining for sustainable futures in Ukraine
Funding: $4 million
This project from the HALO Trust aims to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of Ukrainians, including women and internally displaced persons, by addressing the threat of explosive ordnance present across vast areas of the country. Project activities include conducting non-technical surveys and subsequent manual clearance in targeted communities; providing capacity building to key national stakeholders; and establishing a gender and diversity working group to promote gender-transformative mine action in Ukraine.
While these weapons may be indiscriminate, the specific threats and impacts vary according to gender, age and other aspects of diversity. It is essential that mine action actors are equipped to apply a gender lens as part of a comprehensive and inclusive approach to planning, implementing and monitoring programmes to ensure protection for all and to ensure that "no one is left behind."
An inclusive and gender-balanced workforce increases the efficiency and effectiveness of mine action activities and benefits the community as a whole by ensuring a more coherent response to the different needs and priorities of women, girls, boys and men affected by contamination.
The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
Considering how dangerous it is to be a US citizen in Russia, I am surprised the US Embassy would bother.Quote from: U.S. embassy in RussiaThe Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
Hmmm. Interesting.
They're probably falling victim to polling around the Presidential election. When Trump invents so many outrages, they run the risk of responding to one or the other. I don't know how support for Ukraine is currently polling. It was 66% in 2022 according to Gallup. O maybe they think Russia is finally out of gas and Ukraine isn't in danger of being overrun anymore? Maybe they know those resources are going to be required somewhere else soon....Most reporting suggests that support has collapsed. There was an argument in this thread some weeks ago, but the long and short of it is that most polls seem to agree that majorities say America has either "done enough" or "too much".
I hope Biden is smart enough to not pull out... or someone convinces him not to.We're going to have to see, but it's going to depend more on Congress. I'd say what we're seeing looks like testing the waters of public opinion, and it's possible that just putting the war back in the news may end up driving more support, even if the stories are pretty negative.
Am not used to systems where the parliament actually matters, oops! 💀Understandable. The key point is that Congress has to okay the money.
They want gender studies in mine removal operations because they believe gender has a bearing on who is affected, how they're effected and whether there are protections in place that consider their specific needs.
Basically civilians may have to clear their own backyards of unexploded ordinance (instead of trained military personnel) and someone in Canada wants to kick $4 million towards making sure someone is thinking about women and displaced persons (those whose home was destroyed by war), the things they need and the risks they particularly face. (Is a woman 2 months pregnant having to clear explosives from an area coated in all the residue from fighting going to be affected differently than a 14 year old boy, who might have their hormones fucked with from breathing in contaminated dirt from a war zone for 6 months?) Instead of just sending everyone in willy nilly and then wondering why there's an increase in birth defects for the next generation, and other health problems in the war generation.
There. I applied basic critical thinking to clearly written sentences for you.
They want gender studies in mine removal operations because they believe gender has a bearing on who is affected, how they're effected and whether there are protections in place that consider their specific needs.
Basically civilians may have to clear their own backyards of unexploded ordinance (instead of trained military personnel) and someone in Canada wants to kick $4 million towards making sure someone is thinking about women and displaced persons (those whose home was destroyed by war), the things they need and the risks they particularly face. (Is a woman 2 months pregnant having to clear explosives from an area coated in all the residue from fighting going to be affected differently than a 14 year old boy, who might have their hormones fucked with from breathing in contaminated dirt from a war zone for 6 months?) Instead of just sending everyone in willy nilly and then wondering why there's an increase in birth defects for the next generation, and other health problems in the war generation.
There. I applied basic critical thinking to clearly written sentences for you.
It reads more like they want to be more diverse in who they're sending to clear mines. Employment/workforce is mentioned heavily.
Send pregnant women to clear mines because diversity is our strength and improves workplace satisfaction!
The catholic church should be declared a terrorist organisation for this nazi statement.They tried to hide it by removing Ratzinger but we're onto them
laughs in Protestantism
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who met with US presidential candidate Donald Trump on 8 March, has claimed that Trump has "quite detailed plans" to end the war in Ukraine and will not be giving "a single penny" to fight Russian aggression in Ukraine.OK, Trump may have just blundered away a sizable chunk of his voter base. Namely, the Cold-War-mindset "we need to stick it to the Russians" 'Murica-Fuck-Yeah Republicans.
Quote: "He has a very clear vision that is hard to disagree with. He says the following: first, he will not give a single penny for the Russo-Ukrainian war. That's why the war will end, because it's obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own two feet. If the Americans don't give money and weapons along with the Europeans, the war will end. And if the Americans don't give money, then the Europeans won't be able to fund this war alone. And then the war will end."
But is it all of them?Among his voter base? The GOP politicians? Basically, yeah. Unfortunately. It's not a deal breaker for just about anyone willing to support trump at this point. Maybe (hopefully) it'll help keep everyone not that away, but... who knows. Foreign policy in general doesn't tend to be great at influencing stateside voting patterns, and our media's jammed so far up the horse races's ass it can be difficult for folks to actually notice there's a difference between party policies on stuff like that :-\
Sadly it's entirely possible the democrats will try to withdraw support too, no matter how much public support Ukraine has.Yeah, the problem's basically that if you care about ukraine getting aid, it's the dems or nothing. GOP wants to cut aid entirely, and the rest of the parties aren't relevant. Switch parties to who? You got one choice if you want aid to continue, and if you threaten to switch parties from them on that particular issue you're mostly going to come off looking either dumb or swallowing GOP propaganda than anything approaching sense, blech.
We have to message all our representatives and threaten to switch parties if they don't support Ukraine
Sadly it's entirely possible the democrats will try to withdraw support too, no matter how much public support Ukraine has.Not until after the 2024 Election. President Biden came out hard in favor of Ukraine. Democrats are [insert insult here], but they know how to win elections.
We have to message all our representatives and threaten to switch parties if they don't support Ukraine
So yeah, The Vatican is now walking back the Pope's comments.I've noticed that this seems to be happening more often, which just goes to show that papal infallibility is a bunch of crap.
I've noticed that this seems to be happening more often, which just goes to show that papal infallibility is a bunch of crap.insert "Papal Bull" joke...
Looking like Ukrainian drone strikes have hit the catalytic cracking tower at a major Russian refinery. Russia (and the Soviet Union before them) has never had the ability to produce such equipment, I'm 90% sure China doesn't either, and it is specialized enough that it is very difficult to smuggle. That makes it effectively irreplacable, and you need that kind of equipment to make gasoline out of the sludge that makes up the bulk of most Russian oil (to the point that in peacetime it was routine to export their oil to the US and import light sweet crude for their own refineries) with any volume.
Reducing one refinery to semirefined mazut forevermore isn't a killing blow, but it is going to hurt badly.
I note the US Navy is going to spend $1 Billion dollars to build the exact same naval drones that Ukraine designed with crowdfunding.Hm, source? My Google skills failed me.
Don't worry Ukraine: You will probably get a few million dollars out of it, probably.
The Ukrainian-speaking segment of Twitter has become a cesspool of Russian propaganda that tries to undermine Ukrainian political stability really hard. In my more than 10 years on it, I have never seen anything like that, not during Maidan, not at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.Elon is openly pro-Russian iirc.
Not only it is apparent that they have a large budget but it is so pushed that I am sure that Twitter itself helps them.
Also how many oil refineries have been hit?
I think the "everyone who don't like Putin go and vote at the exact same hour" was a smart thing. It gives lone sticks the chance to see that there are many other sticks like them and that they aren't as alone as they sometimes feel.Yes, it was a good bit of organizing that could lead to future organizing. Journey of a thousand miles single step kind of thing.
I think the "everyone who don't like Putin go and vote at the exact same hour" was a smart thing. It gives lone sticks the chance to see that there are many other sticks like them and that they aren't as alone as they sometimes feel.Yes, it was a good bit of organizing that could lead to future organizing. Journey of a thousand miles single step kind of thing.
The problem with "resistance" is that people need to feel that they have nothing to lose before they will throw themselves against that wall (where the wall is that social system of suppression that threatens your body and the bodies of your family).
Some Russians do have this agreement but I firmly believe that a huge majority of Russians largely enjoy their country as it is, it fits their values and beliefs.All the evidence from previous western research and journalism in Russia suggests this is the case, yes.
How about the way it usually is in the US, which is that some random guy just decided to do that because fuck the world?Two 'lone wolves' going Почтовый?
Russian interventions are way more brutal than American interventions. At least SWAT teams try to save civilians instead of, for instance, rolling tanks on them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege)Makes a perverse kind of sense. Nobody's going to try taking hostages if it's proven repeatedly that the country doesn't care.
Russian interventions are way more brutal than American interventions. At least SWAT teams try to save civilians instead of, for instance, rolling tanks on them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege)Makes a perverse kind of sense. Nobody's going to try taking hostages if it's proven repeatedly that the country doesn't care.
I remember how Russians were celebrating when Americans left Afghanistan and I was facepalming understanding that it means that Islamism will spread into "stans" of Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. This attack looks like the first visible result of that.The Taliban hates ISIS though. They're genuinely at each other's throats.
And yep I believe that it is a genuine Islamist attack, it is their style.
I remember how Russians were celebrating when Americans left Afghanistan and I was facepalming understanding that it means that Islamism will spread into "stans" of Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. This attack looks like the first visible result of that.The Taliban hates ISIS though. They're genuinely at each other's throats.
And yep I believe that it is a genuine Islamist attack, it is their style.
First time in a while that I've heard of ISIS doing something, wonder why they went after that music thing of all things.According to them, they targetted specifically a christian concert. Tho music is forbidden in the Haddith if I remember my religious classes correctly, this specific event is simply broadly religiously motivated.
The United States has called on Kyiv to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries.
The reason - this could lead to an increase in oil prices worldwide, according to sources cited by the Financial Times.
According to one official, the White House is increasingly disappointed by the "brazen attacks" of Ukrainian drones on Russian oil facilities.
Mwuhahahahaha.
I read this as - You can't wage an effective war against your genocidal enemies because gas prices may stop Biden from winning elections.
Meanwhile, ~100 attacked our energy infrastructure this morning. Hello rolling blackouts... I got used to life without you.
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the office of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the government has not received calls from the United States asking Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Podolyak’s comments, forwarded to POLITICO by the office of Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko, were in contrast to earlier reports by the Financial Times that the U.S. had urged the Eastern European nation to refrain from attacks on major energy infrastructure for fear of sending oil prices skyrocketing and prompting retaliation from the Kremlin.
Podolyak in comments first published by RBC-Ukraine called the report of U.S. criticism of the attacks “fake information” and said “Ukraine will destroy fuel infrastructure” in Russia.
Trying to intimidate ISIS by posting literal torture of arrested suspects online is a bold strategy.I would call it lame. ISIS is probably laughing at the FSB.
Trying to intimidate ISIS by posting literal torture of arrested suspects online is a bold strategy.They aren't trying to intimidate ISIS. They are sending a message to the Russian people.
Trying to find a reason Putin wouldn't pull out the nukes at the first sign of a terminal illness, I stumbled upon the true reason for the War.Though they have the same last name, there's actually no relation.
Putin's daughter was knocked up by the cousin of Ukraine's President. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katerina_Tikhonova)
...of course it was rhetorical (and I also know that it's not just Clinton who contributed to the failure to protect them), but you did 'ask'.You basically asked why nobody was doing anything about Russia.
I don't think so? I already know why nobody can do anything about Russia. (I.e., Russia has nukes and has threatened to use them. Ukraine gave theirs up in 1994 after President Clinton promised we'd protect them.)
Things may become 'messy', in wartime, but there are hard and fast obligations to punish grave violations (which go well beyond accidents, carelessness or misunderstandings).
Tell us more about how Russia is being punished hard and fast for its violations.
I can't tell if I'm being subtweeted here.
...brought over from the Gaza thread, by this point becoming a totally non-Gaza subject diversion.
It was a joking reference to something they say onI can't tell if I'm being subtweeted here.
Ah. No. If subtweeted is a term for what I think it is, totally a coincidence (or perhaps independent sublineage repollination from the whoever first brought the idea into all our minds[1]) that I chose to bring something here that involved a quote about nukes (and Ukraine), arriving immediately after your reply which quoted a native reference about nukes (on Ukraine).
But it's a mildly irresistable subject. One that many people have their eye on (https://what-if.xkcd.com/imgs/a/73/neutrinos_bomb.png), I'm sure....
[1] The histories of the most immediate conversations can be easily checked, no doubt. But I won't.
Austria has been severely compromised. Investigation has shown that Russian agents have taken over their police and secret service over the past decade.That article is paywalled. Is it pertaining to this? https://apnews.com/article/austria-spying-scandal-russia-ott-marsalek-wirecard-8921f3ce95b30646ee1952bf8949a43f
https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/diepe-russische-infiltratie-in-oostenrijkse-politie-en-veiligheidsdienst~b2903fdd/
Vienna secret service headquarters has been used by the FSB for years as a forward base of operations.
The best course of action would be to annex Austria and make it part of Germany, in hopes of transforming it back from Russian useful idiots to European country.
Yeah it looks like that is a similar report.Oh, that's convenient. I normally try that, actually, but I somehow didn't think of it this time after unsuccessfully trying a proxy I usually use (12ft.io) instead.
My Volkskrant's paywall can be easily circumvented by using Firefox + NoScript Add on (stops any and all Java scripts from running without explicit permission, can recommend). Apparently their paywall is a Java Script. Using NoScript unlocks everything except photo specials and some in depthh specials that are labelled 'subscribers only'. I notified them even of their easily breachable paywall. Luckily, they're a lovely newspaper and are in favour of freedom of flow of information. Most of their articles are free if you know how to and they don't care. Or rather, they care enough to not change that.
EDIT: if you can afford to do so, pay their subscription. Support decent journalism. I would if I could afford.
Which is an interesting twist, now that I think about it. Do we have any idea how much Iran was supplying Russia recently? It seems like Russia would have pressured them to not attack Israel if they were relying on their exports, but maybe they thought they had more to gain by distracting the US. They've also started setting up their own drone manufacturing plants, haven't they?
[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.
I'm too averse to the toxicity in the Israel/Palestine thread to have that end up on my notifications feed so I'm posting my thoughts here instead, fuck it.That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.Quote[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.
EDIT: Meant to put that in a quote block not a spoiler
That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.
ICBMs is the only open question.We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.
ICBMs is the only open question.We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point it is important that we stop being cowards, Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.
Part of me wants Israel to make a big pile of ashes with Iranian oil sector. Not only because putting americans in front of their open hypocrisy would be hysterical, not only because it would expedite the process of making them hold their word for once, but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.
but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.
Hypersonic missiles weren't part of Iran's attack. Also there was ample warning time. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the ability of Russia to attack a nearby NATO country closer than Israel is to Iran (12 hours by drone.)